MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions for White Sox vs. Tigers: How to Back Lance Lynn, Chicago
Cooper Neill/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Lance Lynn.
- The Chicago White Sox take on the Detroit Tigers in an AL Central matchup on Monday night.
- The White Sox will send Lance Lynn too the mound, as the right-hander is set to make his first start since an impressive 2021 campaign.
- Check out how Nick Martin is betting Lynn in his return below.
White Sox vs. Tigers Odds
|White Sox Odds||-130|
|Over/Under||8.5 (-105 / -115)|
|Time||7:10 p.m. ET|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The White Sox’s struggles continued last week, and Chicago’s now 4-8 over its last 12 games and 3.5 games out of the last Wild Card spot in the AL.
Monday’s contest could offer a small glimpse of optimism, as Lance Lynn will make his season debut for the White Sox looking to follow up a dominant 2021 campaign.
The Tigers will counter with Rony Garcia, who has continued to trend downward as the season has progressed and now sits with an ERA of 4.50 throughout 28 innings.
Can Lynn lead his underachieving club to a much-needed win Monday?
Lance Lynn Set to Return for White Sox
It’s been a season in which absolutely nothing seems to be going right for the White Sox, who were once the odds-on favorite to take the division title in a soft AL Central.
From injuries to a handful of debatable decisions from manager Tony La Russa, it seems the energy around this White Sox club right now is quite negative. It will be interesting how much longer the 77-year-old remains in charge should the struggles continue.
Chicago has hit to the third-worst wRC+ mark (78) versus right-handed pitching, and it owns a .305 wOBA.
A number of key pieces, such as Yasmani Grandal and Yoan Moncada, have struggled far worse at the plate than many could have expected, while continual injuries to starters have also played a role in the concerns.
That said, the White Sox have still managed to be more productive against right-handed pitching than the Tigers, and it’s hard to see how the results will not improve to some extent moving forward.
Over the last month, Chicago has hit to a 100 wRC+ with a .305 wOBA, which has come against a notably tough slate of competition and pitching staffs.
Obviously, things got a lot tougher when Tim Anderson went to the IL on May 29, but there are still some strong arguments as to why this could be somewhat of a low point in offensive form for the White Sox.
An effective return from injury for Lynn could be another big storyline to any potential turnaround from the White Sox, who surely have enough time to turn it around with 104 games left against a weak AL Central
Lynn pitched to an 11-6 record with a 2.69 ERA in 2021 but suffered a torn tendon behind his right knee in Spring Training. Watching his club struggle throughout the opening two months of the season without being able to contribute has surely been torture for the fiery Lynn, who is known to be as competitive as anybody in baseball.
Lynn has struggled mightily throughout three rehab appearances with Triple-A Charlotte, pitching to an ERA of 8.10.
That’s obviously a dreadful mark, but rehab starts can be far from a guarantee of what a player may offer when the games actually mean something.
Tigers Struggling At the Plate
While Lynn may not offer the kind of form we’re used to seeing Monday, we know with a degree of certainty that Garcia’s stuff should continue to be crushed moving forward.
Garcia has pitched to an xERA of 6.41 throughout 28 innings in 2022, which is actually a significantly improved mark compared to the results in each of his previous two MLB campaigns.
Garcia is near or at the bottom of the league in essentially every relevant metric and has pitched to a dreadful QOPA of just 3.61 in 2022. He has pitched to a hard-hit rate of 57.1% as well.
The Tigers’ offensive woes have continued over the last month, as Detroit owns the league’s worst wRC+ of 69 during that span with a wOBA of .263.
Detroit also holds the league’s worst wRC+ against right-handed pitching at 65 with a .258 wOBA in 1,556 PAs this season.
White Sox-Tigers Pick
It’s hard to say for certain what we will see out of Lynn in his first start of the season Monday, but we are being given somewhat of a discounted price given that uncertainty.
If Lynn is to pitch at anywhere close to the level we saw in 2021, he offers a massive pitching edge for the White Sox over Garcia, who by all indications will continue to be hit hard moving forward.
We likely won’t see Lynn go deep in this contest, but he’s still quite likely to pitch four or five innings against a Tigers offense that has been entirely dreadful.
It’s a little frightening to back Chicago when everything around this club feels so off right now. But in this pitching mismatch, I will do so (for five innings at least) and hope Lynn’s return can inspire a little optimism.
And even with how awful things have been, the White Sox still have offered more success at the plate than the lowly Tigers.
At -125 for the White Sox to lead after five innings, I believe we have some strong value. I would play this down to -135.
Pick: White Sox F5 ML -125 (Play to -135)
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