Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Luis Severino
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays, 4:07 p.m. ET
- Yankees (Severino) -200
- Blue Jays (Happ) +180
- Total 7.5
Bet to Watch
Over the last calendar year, Luis Severino has been been nearly unbeatable…literally. The Yankees are 29-4 in Severino’s 33 starts since July 8, 2017. If you bet the Yankees in each of those starts, you’d be up over 12 units.
This current stretch for the Yankees and Severino has simply been ridiculous: New York has won 14 of his last 15 starts and Severino has an ERA of just 1.70 over those starts. So, to sum up 2018 for Severino and the Yankees — just peachy.
Not surprisingly, the average price on Severino over this 33-game masterpiece has been around -186, which is why bettors have only profited 12 units despite winning 25 more games than they’ve lost. Despite Severino’s dominance, I’m going with the home dog in this one.
The Yankees face Blue Jays starter J.A. Happ (11-6, +3.3 units), who has been a profitable pitcher this season despite an ERA of 4.03 (his highest since 2014). However, what interests me the most about Happ is his how he’s been able to at least hold the Yankees at bay throughout his career: 3.53 ERA overall, 3.17 ERA at home with New York hitting under .250 against him. At around the price of +180 at home, you are getting one of the best prices on J.A. Happ in his career and with the Yankees coming off a loss yesterday, that price will continue to climb most likely right up to first pitch (77% tickets are on the Yankees at publication).
Additionally, the Blue Jays are better vs. righties than lefties this year (BA, OBP, Slugging pct, OPS) and Severino’s numbers are worse on the road compared to at home. With the way the Yankees’ ace has pitched this season, it seems like I’m splitting hairs a bit here, but every little bit counts.
Trends I Fear:
• Yankees are 17-4 (+7.1 units) coming off a multi-run loss this season
• Yankees are 21-4 (+8.5 units) when facing a left-handed starting pitcher this season
I’m backing the Blue Jays because I see value in Happ and the price, but the choice is yours.
Writer’s note: I bet with a consistent fear that bullpens will steal wins away from me as I sleep in the middle of the night; so please continue to sprinkle some change on the first 5 innings as well — happy betting.
The picks: Blue Jays +180, Blue Jays First 5 Innings +185
Editor’s note: The opinion on this game is from the individual writer and is based on his research, analysis and perspective. It is independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.