Yankees vs. Blue Jays Odds & Picks: Bet Toronto to Win AL East Clash
Cole Burston/Getty Images. Pictured: Alek Manoah
- The Blue Jays are home favorites as they attempt to end the Yankees' 10-game winning streak tonight.
- Alek Manoah takes the mound for Toronto opposed by New York's Jameson Taillon.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of the matchup, including a betting pick.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays Odds
|Blue Jays Odds||-138|
|Time||7:07 p.m. ET|
|Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The Yankees went in and stole the series opener against the Blue Jays Monday night as Gleyber Torres provided all the offense needed to get the victory. Torres’ 2-for-4 night that included a two-run homer bolstered a solid pitching performance by Jordan Montgomery. Their two efforts made this the Yankees’ 10th-straight victory.
However, Tuesday night the tide could change as we once again have a great pair of arms going to combat these two potent lineups. The pitching matchup is actually a rematch of April 11th, where Toronto’s Alek Manoah outdueled Jameson Taillon as he kept the Yankees’ bats silent on the way to a 3-0 victory.
The Blue Jays should enter this contest with a fair bit of confidence as streaks are made to be broken, and if history repeats itself like it so often does, they’ll have knotted this series up at one game apiece.
Manoah to Continue Success Against Yanks
Manoah has been stellar against the Yankees in his young career. He added to his tremendous numbers just a few weeks ago as he dazzled them for six innings, allowing only one hit, no runs and striking out seven.
The outlook for the Yanks is bleak in this matchup as overall, the current New York lineup is hitting just .163 with a whiff rate of 29 percent and an average exit velocity of 86.5 mph.
Manoah has been outstanding against every opponent to begin the 2022 campaign. He’ll enter this start with a 1.44 ERA. That microscopic ERA can be attributed to a slight change in arsenal, which has led to a great deal of soft contact.
Manoah is in the top 21 percent of qualified pitchers in hard-hit rate allowed, which has subsequently made each of his expected stats among the top 15 percent of the league.
We’ve seen an uptick in fastball usage, and it has been very effective thus far. His velocity is up nearly a full mph from last season, and his spin rate on it is among the top 25 percent of the league. However, it’s not just the quality of his fastball; the difference has been in his command of it. Manoah’s CSW on his fastball is nearly four percent higher than the league average.
The Yankees only have four genuine threats to the fastball as Anthony Rizzo, Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu and Isiah Kiner-Falefa all have batting averages over .370 against fastballs this season.
Jays Bats to Attack Overdue Taillon
Like his counterpart in this matchup, Taillon has also gotten off to a splendid start in 2022. He’ll enter this start with a 3.26 ERA over four starts. However, while Taillon has only surrendered two runs or fewer in each of his four starts this season, there are some concerns in his underlying numbers.
Part of Taillon’s early success has been due to him cutting his walk rate down significantly, but the increase in strikes has led to an increase in hard contact. His average exit velocity is on par with the rest of the league, but his expected batting average and expected slugging are in the bottom 40 percent of qualified pitchers.
The middle of the Blue Jays has been hitting the ball hard consistently as Matt Chapman, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Lourdies Gurriel Jr. and George Springer all have average exit velocities above 90 mph and hard-hit rates over 50 percent.
Taillon may have escaped the first start by only allowing two runs, but he’s trending in the wrong direction against a Toronto lineup that is trending in the right direction.
Yankees-Blue Jays Pick
I used the word escaped to describe the Yankees’ series-opening victory, which is accurate as their win probability was only 48 percent. Entering tonight’s contest, it’s around 40 percent, according to the FanGraphs. That means that the Blue Jays should be closer to -150 favorites and have value on them up to that price.
It all lines ups for the Blue Jays as they have the right man on the mound and the right approach in the box to come away victorious here.
Pick: Blue Jays ML -130 (Bet to -145)
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