Yankees vs. Cardinals MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Look at Prop Market For Value (Saturday, August 6)
Paul Rutherford/Getty Images. Pictured: Paul Goldschmidt.
Yankees vs. Cardinals Odds
|8.5 (-115 / -105)
|7:15 p.m. ET
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.
Game One of this inter-league series between the Cardinals and Yankees featured a thrilling finish which saw the Cards manage a two-run bottom of the eighth on the way to a comeback win
Game Two sets up to be a very interesting affair as well. Jordan Montgomery will make his first Cardinals start against his former side, while the Yankees will send Domingo German to the mound.
Can Montgomery extract a measure of revenge after being dealt earlier in the week?
Yankees in Variable Position
New York has been the most productive lineup in the league against left-handed pitching this season – and by a decent margin – with a 128 wRC+ and a .347 woba.
For the time being, however, the Yankees can be expected to be somewhat less potent offensively in any matchup, with Giancarlo Stanton and Anthony Rizzo on the sidelines.
Rizzo is listed as day-to-day and could possibly play today, but based upon the Yankees position atop the AL East it seems likely his back ailment will be handled very carefully, and waiting for official word on his status for the game is relevant considering his .525 SLG rate versus lefties.
Predicting how Domingo German will fare today also seems somewhat of a tough task, as the once dominant righty has struggled considerably since returning from a shoulder injury in July.
German has bounced back after a dreadful opening outing of the season against a spectacular Astros offense with more reasonable performances against the Mets and Mariners, however he was still far from dominant in those outings.
Throughout a small sample size of 12.2 innings German has pitched to a dreadful 1.86 WHIP, and excluding his opening start against the Astros, his WHIP still comes in at 1.73.
German's stuff has rated very poorly as well, with a 3.88 QOPA, and his expected ERA of 6.36 suggests the poor results have been far from bad luck.
He has pitched to even worse results versus right-handed batters in particular, allowing a 1.88 WHIP, which is similar to what we saw in 2021 when he managed a significantly higher WHIP of 1.36 to righties.
Cardinals Thriving Offensively
St. Louis has managed a very steady 106 wRC+ and .316 woba versus right-handed pitching this season, in large due to how effective each of Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado have still been in righty-righty matchups.
NL MVP front-runner Goldschmidt has slugged .554 against right-handed pitching this season, and his 20 home-runs against righties is tied for 5th most in the MLB.
Looking towards the opening lines on this contest I believe there was some value with the Cardinals at +100, but the prices seem to have moved past the point of warranting a bet on the majority of books at this point.
It's certainly reasonable to think the Cardinals will get a solid output of hits together off of German, and in particular I see value with how this matchup sets up for Paul Goldschmidt.
At +125 to go over 1.5 bases I certainly believe we have enough value to make a play, and I would play this down to a number of +110.
Pick: Paul Goldschmidt Over 1.5 Total Bases +125 (Play to +110)