Yankees vs. Mariners Odds, Preview, Prediction: Expect Slow Offensive Start to MLB Matinee (Thursday, July 8)

Yankees vs. Mariners Odds, Preview, Prediction: Expect Slow Offensive Start to MLB Matinee (Thursday, July 8) article feature image
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Rich Schultz/Getty Images. Pictured: New York Yankees starting pitcher Jordan Montgomery.

Yankees vs. Mariners Odds

Yankees Odds -143
Mariners Odds +123
Over/Under 8.5
Time 4:10 p.m. ET
TV MLB Network
Odds as of Thursday morning via BetMGM.

Despite all of its struggles in the first half of the season, New York is still three games above .500 and has a chance to sweep Seattle on Thursday with Jordan Montgomery taking the hill.

The Yankees won the first two games of the series by 12-1 and 5-4 scores and haven’t swept a non-division opponent since May.

On the other side, Seattle has posted a solid record in the first half of the season, but its run differential and other underlying metrics suggest it’s quite fortunate to be three games over .500 at this point.

Rookie starter Logan Gilbert has impressed for the Mariners in spots, but they’ve struggled against left-handed pitchingand Montgomery in particular is underrated based on his pitching peripherals. Neither bullpen can’t be trusted of late and did get a lot of usage the last two nights, but the starters are underrated and match up well with the opposing lineup in the early innings.

Yankees Turning to Reliable Starter Montgomery

The Yankees have struggled to establish a No. 2 starter behind Gerrit Cole for the majority of the season, but Montgomery has proven himself to be the most reliable of their bunch in recent starts. His 4.17 ERA isn’t all that impressive, but the lefty has allowed a career low OPS against him. He also keeps the ball in the park and has a 3.5 FIP thus far.

Montgomery doesn’t wow you with his stuff or strike out a lot of guys, but to only allow 0.94 HR per nine innings is a solid clip when half of your outings come at Yankee Stadium.

New York’s bats have struggled with strikeouts and ground balls, and Gilbert has an impressive K/BB rate. The Yankees are 14th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching, which is considerably worse than they are against lefties.

Their top hitters are have excellent walk rates, with the team ranking second in the league at free passes. However,  Gilbert only walks 5.8% of hitters faced. Without the walks, New York has struggled to string together hits.

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Mariners Getting Solid Outings From Rookie Gilbert

Gilbert’s strikeout rate, walk rate and expecting average against are well above average, especially for a rookie pitcher. The Mariners’ right-hander has struggled giving up too much hard contact, but when he’s made mistakes, they’ve often come with no one on base because he doesn’t allow walks.

He struggled in his first few starts, but has improved considerably and been an above-average starter for the last month or so. If Gilbert can keep the base paths clear of walks and keep the ball in the yard, he can find success against New York’s struggling lineup.

On the other side, the Mariners bats have really has issues against lefties. Seattle has the highest strikeout rate; rank 29th in wOBA; 25th in wRC+; and, 23rd in hard-hit rate. Its lineup has been much better against righties, but Montgomery should shut them down.


Yankees-Mariners Pick

With the Mariners struggling against southpaws, their good hitting numbers and Montgomery’s consistently above-average pitching peripherals, it’s difficult to see how they score early in this game.

Similarly, Gilbert’s strikeout and walk rates suggest the Yankees will struggle to put runners on base, so it could take some time for their bats to get going, especially in an early West coast start after late-night game.

I don’t trust either bullpen enough after all of the work they’ve both had to do the last two nights, but both starters should be able to keep this game low scoring and hand it over to their bullpens close.

Pick: First Five Innings — Under 4.5 Runs (+115)

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