Yankees vs. Orioles Odds, Pick, Prediction: Can Baltimore Pull Off Another Upset? (April 16)

Yankees vs. Orioles Odds, Pick, Prediction: Can Baltimore Pull Off Another Upset? (April 16) article feature image

Rob Tringali/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Austin Hays and Isaiah Kiner-Falefa

  • The Orioles pulled off a thrilling, extra-inning win against the Yankees on Friday.
  • They're underdogs again on Saturday, but is there value on another upset for the second-straight day?
  • Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a betting pick.

Yankees vs. Orioles Odds

Yankees Odds-180
Orioles Odds+160
Over/Under8.5 (-125 / +105)
Time7:05 p.m. ET
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The New York Yankees hope to bounce back from Friday's 2-1, extra-inning loss against the Baltimore Orioles. New York issued 10 walks in the game, including a decisive one with the bases loaded to give Baltimore the walk-off win.

Yankees right-hander Jameson Taillon will take his turn on the mound while the Orioles will counter with Tyler Wells. Both pitchers suffered a shutout loss in their first start, but Wells had the more strenuous outing after allowing four runs in 1 2/3 innings against the Rays. Perhaps it could've been expected as it was the first start of Wells' career.

The Orioles right-hander has yet to pitch more than three innings in the majors, so their bullpen will likely be called into action early on. However, the bullpen has been one of their brighter spots for the team, and it just might hold the cards for another Orioles upset victory.

Yankees Looking For Offense Behind Taillon

There's been a bit of a power outage in New York as the Yankees are averaging just 2.5 runs in their past six games. The Yankees' wRC+ value of 100 stipulates that they're currently just an average offense. New York's pitching staff has primarily carried the team as they lead the majors with a 2.26 ERA. However, some warning signs might be imminent if you consider New York's 3.52 FIP.

As for Taillon, he's coming off an 8-6 campaign in which he finished with a 4.30 ERA. His SIERA, a valuable indicator for year-over-year performance, was roughly the same at 4.33. Thus, when you consider New York's struggles at the plate combined with signs of regression with their pitching, it's fair to question if the Yankees should be as high as -195 favorites.

With the season just underway, I like to use the SIERA metric as a foundational piece in my predictive modeling. As a result, what we've seen from Taillon over the past few seasons is probably as good as it will get for the right-hander.

Taillon has two career starts against Baltimore, and New York went 1-1 in those outings. Baltimore's current roster has 26 at-bats against him, and they come into this game with a .248/.240/.655 line.

While the Orioles haven't necessarily gotten off to a flying start, as evidenced by their 2-5 record, it's worth noting that the Orioles are 2-2 thus far at Camden Yards.

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Orioles' Bullpen Impressive Early

You could argue that Wells needs more of a bounce-back than the Yankees considering his first start. This past season, Wells appeared in 44 games and went 2-3 with a 4.11 ERA. However, his advanced numbers look even better if you consider his 3.60 xERA, 3.63 FIP, and 3.37 SIERA.

Seven of his Wells' 44 appearances came against the Yankees, and the head-to-head numbers suggest that he gave a good account of himself. In 21 at-bats, New York registered a .050/.083/.075 line. That could bode well for the second-year pitcher considering that his advanced numbers already point to some positive regression.

This is a game that I think Wells can benefit from, given the opponent in the other dugout. We saw the Orioles' bullpen keep the Yankees scoreless for 5 2/3 innings on Friday. That performance dropped Baltimore's bullpen ERA to 2.06. More impressively, the Orioles lead the majors with a 2.07 FIP.

What's impressed me about the Orioles' relievers is their ability to throw strikes. According to FanGraphs, Baltimore ranks sixth with a called plus swinging (CSW) strike rate of 30.2%. Moreover, the Yankees' hitters have the fourth-worst CSW strike rate at 30.9%.

Phil Cuzzi will be behind home plate, and he's widely regarded as a pitcher's umpire. According to Swish Analytics, hitters are 8% more likely to strike out with Cuzzi behind the dish. Thus, the Orioles should be able to expand the strike zone against a Yankees team that has the highest chase rate outside the zone at 36%.

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Yankees-Orioles Pick

I backed the Orioles yesterday at +170, and I even used my "One Time" courtesy to appeal to them to close the game out.

Jesus come on #Birdland[ One time[

— Vegas Analytics (@Vegas_Analytics) April 16, 2022

While Baltimore remains a sizeable underdog, their odds are slightly shortened at +160. According to GimmeTheDog.com, the Orioles have successfully won back-to-back games against the Yankees as they're 37-49 in this spot for 4.52 units.

I also checked our BetLabs database, which goes back to 2005, and found that the Orioles won at least back-to-back games against the Yankees in each season. But the trend I found to be the most interesting is that the Orioles are 24-17 for 21.4 units when they're on a one-game winning streak and the Yankees are on a one-game losing streak.

While that's certainly appealing enough to get me to the betting window, I'm going to limit my action to a half-unit after already backing the Orioles on Friday.

Pick: 1/2 unit Orioles ML +160 (Play down to +150)

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