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MLB Odds & Picks for Yankees vs. Red Sox: Play This Player Prop (Saturday, July 9)

MLB Odds & Picks for Yankees vs. Red Sox: Play This Player Prop (Saturday, July 9) article feature image
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Photo by Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images. Pictured: Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox)

  • The Yankees are searching for their third win in this series over their arch-rival Red Sox at Fenway Park.
  • Boston is having major pitching issues, but Nick Martin avoids a side in this one.
  • Nick breaks down the prop he's targeting from the Red Sox's side.

Yankees vs. Red Sox Odds

Yankees Odds -162
Red Sox Odds +136
Over/Under 9 (-115/-105)
Time 7:15 p.m. ET
TV FOX
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

New York’s historically strong start to this campaign continued on Friday, as the Yankees crushed the Red Sox, 12-5, for a second consecutive win at Fenway.

Lefty Jordan Montgomery will draw the start Saturday for the Yankees, looking to build on a strong 3.32 ERA this season.

With several starters on the sidelines, Alex Cora will hand the ball to Kutter Crawford, who has struggled in a small sample (5.04 ERA this season).

Will the Yankees’ powerhouse lineup torment Crawford and the Red Sox again on Saturday?

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Yankees’ Offense Will Continue to Roll

New York’s lineup has been consistently dominant at the plate all season long, and that story has not changed of late, as the Yankees have hit to a 131 wRC+ with a .350 wOBA over the last month.

In specific, New York has been the most potent team in the league against right-handed pitching this season, and has hit both the fastball and cutter effectively.

The Yankees are certainly a daunting matchup for Crawford here.

Montgomery could be a logical regression candidate moving forward, however, as the 29-year-old holds an xERA of 3.92, and has fared worse on the road this season with a WHIP of 1.25.

Montgomery has struck out just 17% of right-handed batters he’s faced this season, which is logical considering his modest spin-rates and limited swing-and-miss stuff.


Red Sox Own an Interesting Matchup Advantage

If Montgomery is ever to suffer some regression, it could be in a matchup at Fenway against the Red Sox. Boston has crushed left-handed pitching this season, with a second-best wRC+ of 120 and a .342 wOBA.

Montgomery has allowed 1.10 WHIP against right-handed batters compared to his spectacular mark of 0.75 versus lefties. In particular, I believe we could see Xander Bogaerts take advantage of a lefty-righty matchup.

Bogaerts has slugged .533 versus left-handed pitching this season, with a .991 OPS and a .350 average this season.

Historically, Bogaerts has also hit Montgomery very well, with a .464 average throughout a reasonably large sample of 28 plate appearances.

Yankees-Red Sox Pick

At -155, I would lean toward the Yankees as a side, but my favorite play looking toward this contest is a player prop.

Boston’s lineup could very well manage another solid outing on Saturday, and if it does, it could be led by Xander Bogaerts.

As alluded to, Bogaerts has historically hit Montgomery very well, which comes with very logical causation, considering his splits against left-handed pitching.

I think we certainly have value looking toward a +135 price for Bogaerts to breakthrough with an extra-base hit or two hits today. I would play that down to +125.

Pick: Xander Bogaerts Over 1.5 Total Bases +135 (Play to +125)

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