Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji Odds
| Perez Odds | -142 |
| Sumudaerji Odds | +100 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-130/+100) |
| Location | Galaxy Arena, Macau, China |
| Bout Time | 7:15 a.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC Macau odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Macau with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji prediction for UFC Macau on Saturday, May 30, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
UFC Macau features a fun stylistic matchup at men's flyweight between Alex Perez and Sumudaerji. Perez is coming off a somewhat shocking first-round finish over Charles Johnson, handing "Inner G" the first stoppage loss of his professional career.
Whereas Sumudaerji, who has been putting in the work stateside in recent years, has quietly built up a three-fight winning streak. Should Sumudaerji make it four wins in a row opposite a ranked fighter this weekend, then he could find himself in the flyweight Top 15 come Monday.
Here's my Perez vs. Sumudaerji pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Perez | Sumudaerji | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 26-10 | 19-7 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 6:48 | 11:08 |
| Height | 5'6" | 5'8" |
| Weight (pounds) | 125 lbs. | 125 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 65" | 72" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 3/21/1992 | 01/20/1996 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.41 | 4.43 |
| SS Accuracy | 46% | 50% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.20 | 2.35 |
| SS Defense | 59% | 62% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.21 | 0.67 |
| TD Acc | 48% | 35% |
| TD Def | 75% | 72% |
| Submission Avg | 0.7 | 0.5 |
Despite one fighter coming from a wrestling base, both Perez and Sumudaerji offer formidable striking threats on the feet.
Sumudaerji, the southpaw, is a fleet-of-foot fencer who initially came out of the gate looking like a Chinese Conor McGregor. Thankfully for Sumudaerji, the 30-year-old has smartly taken strides to ensure he can offer much more than just a counter left hand.
From a more active lead hand and kicks to improved awareness of cage positioning, Sumudaerji appears to be finally getting a firm grasp on his game. "The Tibetan Eagle" has also made improvements to his wrestling and submission defense, working with everyone from Team Alpha Male to "Simple Man jiu-jitsu (formerly known as the B-Team) in Austin, Texas. Still, I highly doubt that Sumudaerji will want to test his potential grappling improvements against Perez.
Indoctrinated into wrestling from a very young age, Perez followed the path of his brothers, Julian Perez and Silverio Esparza (who were also Lemoore High School wrestling champions), excelling as a two-time divisional champ that maintained a top-12 state ranking for his weight class. And by Perez's sophomore year at West Hills College Lemoore, he had received All-American honors before eventually transitioning to mixed martial arts.
Perez favors chaining off single-leg snatches in the open, but can also be a flexible takedown artist when operating in the clinch or against the cage. However, despite developing a slick front-choke game in transition, Perez has proven that he's not beyond running himself into the wrong end of a submission attempt.
On the feet, Perez is a heavy-handed puncher who works the body and head, but can also go down low with hard calf kicks. I'm not sure how much outside calf kicks will be available to Perez given the open-stance pairing, but the 34-year-old veteran has shown in past performances that he can largely keep the same approach against southpaws.
Alex Perez, who faces Sumudaerji at #UFCMacau, is 0-1 against UFC-level southpaws, losing to Joe Benavidez off a head clash that was never called (something Joe himself acknowledged despite no one ever mentioning this in their breakdowns)
Perez also KO’d a SP switching Inner G: pic.twitter.com/0fSJrVgKRD
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) May 29, 2026
Despite officially standing at 0-1 opposite dedicated, UFC-level southpaws (losing to Joseph Benavidez off an uncalled head clash), Perez displayed solid instincts and ideas in his last outing against a southpaw-heavy stance-switcher in Johnson, knocking his block off on multiple occasions.
Perez vs. Sumudaerji Pick, Prediction
Although Perez's bad luck has sadly given him a bad reputation amongst bettors, the American fighter still finds himself as a slight favorite as of this writing.
I intend to make the argument that Perez, as per usual, is not getting enough respect from the MMA betting market, but it's nice to see some buy-back love on Sumudaerji after being one of his more vocal backers in recent years. That said, I believe that Perez is one of the tougher matchups for Sumudaerji in this division.
Aside from Sumudaerji lacking the traditional submission foils that have traditionally plagued Perez in the past, his long lances and wide stances have traditionally offered single-leg snatches for those who are willing. Not only can Perez wrestle circles around a fighter like Sumudaerji, but the 15-year pro also has potent striking and submission threats that provide plausible pathways to victory in multiple phases.
Add in the fact that Perez has been both coaching and training alongside the impressive lighter-weight stable at Syndicate MMA, and this looks like a very winnable fight for the former title challenger.
Total takedown props on the Perez side could be an interesting look if you suspect that he could pull another late stunt like he did against Asu Almabaev, but it's 'pick a side and ride' for me, as I'll be on the disrespectful money line of the continually underrated Perez.
Dan's Pick: Alex Perez -120 (Caesars)
