Salahdine Parnasse vs. Dan Hooker Odds
| Parnasse Odds | -535 |
| Yadong Odds | +400 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (+195/-260) |
| Location | Accor Arena, Paris, France |
| Bout Time | 5:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC Paris odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Paris with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Salahdine Parnasse vs. Dan Hooker prediction for UFC Shanghai on Saturday, August 29, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Salahdine Parnasse might be the best fighter outside of the UFC — that is, until Saturday in France, where he makes his promotional debut. The two-division KSW champion most recently appeared on the MVP on Netflix card, picking up a first-round knockout before inking his UFC deal.
Greeting him is divisional mainstay Dan Hooker. "The Hangman" is a tough out, but admittedly a step below contender-level, and at 36, is in the twilight of his career. Oddsmakers expect the UFC's plan to build Parnasse's name off of Hooker to be successful, but will it be that easy?
Here's my Parnasse vs. Hooker pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Parnasse | Hooker | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 23-2 | 24-14 |
| Avg. Fight Time | UFC Debut | 10:08 |
| Height | 5'10" | 6'0" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 71" | 71" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Switch |
| Date of birth | 12/04/1997 | 2/13/1990 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.82 | |
| SS Accuracy | 48% | |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.94 | |
| SS Defense | 49% | |
| Take Down Avg | 0.68 | |
| TD Acc | 33% | |
| TD Def | 77% | |
| Submission Avg | 0.6 |
As referenced above, Dan Hooker is self aware about his (lack of) championship hopes at this point in his career, saying he plans to "hang around as long as (he) can and ruin as many other fighters' hopes and dreams as (he) can." He has the chance to do just that this weekend, as the City Kickboxing prospect takes the native Frenchman on enemy soil.
For much of his career, Hooker relied on his toughness and durability to power him through scraps where he was the less skilled fighter, the lesser athlete, or both. The rangy stance-switcher has solid power and puts out plenty of volume, but lacks the precision, accuracy, or slick counters of many of his City Kickboxing teammates. He's happy to walk through the fire if that's what it takes to dole out damage, and has a slightly negative career striking differential.
His grappling is arguably underrated but primarily used for defense and deterrence. Hooker is strong from the front headlock position and has a pair of UFC guillotine victories, but will use other related submissions (Anaconda and D'Arce chokes) as threats to deter lower-level grapplers. He grappled offensively more in the earlier part of his career — which probably correlates with the fact that he was fighting at featherweight where he was bigger and stronger than his opponents — but hasn't landed an offensive takedown in any of his last seven fights.
That adds up to a fight that likely takes place nearly entirely on the feet, since Parnasse is primarily a striker himself.
He's also a much cleaner striker than Hooker, with excellent head movement and footwork. He's competed in professional boxing, and uses boxing-style slips and rolls to avoid danger while staying in striking range, usually to great effect. One of his two career losses was actually on a freak forearm strike, the result of Parnasse dodging his opponent's punch, but the follow-through clipping him awkwardly:
Parnasse went on to avenge that loss 11 months later, with his only other defeat coming in an attempt to capture the KSW welterweight title.
He seems to have settled in at 155lbs, where he has decent height and length, excellent speed, and massive power. He should be able to use his speed and footwork to stay in the pocket against Hooker, landing multiple clean shots for every glancing blow coming back his way. Parnasse has also improved his wrestling in the more recent part of his career, but I strongly believe that will only come into play should he find himself hurt by Hooker.
Parnasse vs. Hooker Pick, Prediction
All things considered, it's hard to make an argument outside of perhaps "UFC Debut Jitters" that this line isn't about right. Even that is flimsy, with Parnasse fighting in plenty of KSW championship fights in packed stadiums, plus a main-card booking on the first ever MMA event on Netflix. This is hardly uncharted territory in terms of the size of the event.
The one edge Hooker might have is pure grit, which isn't enough on its own to win a fight. However, it might be enough to extend one. Outside of a retrospectively fluky loss to Michael Chandler, Hooker has never been finished in the first round. More importantly for my betting angle, that was one of just two career losses for "Hangman" in which he absorbed less than 42 significant strikes — the other being a quick submission by Islam Makhachev.
Hooker is both hittable and durable enough that Parnasse should be able to — and need to — land plenty of volume before getting him out of there. My official bet is on Parnasse to go over 41.5 significant strikes, which is -115 odds via DraftKings. I also like Dan Tom's read on Parnasse in Round 2, which he gave out as a "Hot Round" on our latest UFC Betting Preview Podcast:
Billy's Picks: Salahdine Parnasse Over 41.5 Significant Strikes -115 (DraftKings)
