Brandon Moreno vs. Joseph Morales Odds
| Moreno Odds | +100 |
| Morales Odds | -120 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-345/+250) |
| Location | Desert Diamond Arena, Glendale, Arizona |
| Bout Time | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC Noche odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Noche with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Brandon Moreno vs. Joseph Morales prediction for UFC Noche on Saturday, September 12, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
UFC Noche's co-headliner features potential fireworks at men's flyweight as former champion Brandon Moreno takes on "The Ultimate Fighter" winner Joseph Morales. Both Moreno and Morales share similar storylines, competing on the UFC's reality show and having to fight their way back into the promotion. However, when you consider the current momentum of each combatant, you could argue that Moreno and Morales are at very different stages of their careers despite being the same age.
Here's my Moreno vs. Morales pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Moreno | Morales | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 23-10-2 | 15-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 17:03 | 7:54 |
| Height | 5'7" | 5'6" |
| Weight (pounds) | 125 lbs. | 125 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 70" | 69" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Date of birth | 12/07/1993 | 8/22/1994 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.84 | 2.00 |
| SS Accuracy | 44% | 40% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.64 | 2.05 |
| SS Defense | 59% | 57% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.36 | 1.14 |
| TD Acc | 39% | 42% |
| TD Def | 65% | 26% |
| Submission Avg | 0.4 | 3.0 |
Aside from the story parallels between Moreno and Morales, both men, oddly enough, share some stylistic parallels as well.
Morales, who may not appear as refined a striker at first glance, is a deceptively resourceful fighter on the feet.
A longtime product of Team Alpha Male who was raised under their many iterations, Morales possesses all the hallmarks of that gym. From shifting combinations to reliable right hands, Morales will look to close distance at the drop of a dime. And once Morales achieves clinch space, the native Californian is quick to ignite grappling opportunities and scrambles that favor his style.
A legit Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, Morales is masterful in transition, traditionally working well from negative and unique positions alike. And when Morales gets on top, he displays strong positional fundamentals while still offering flash in the way in which he seamlessly flows with and fires off attacks.
Morales, akin to his current counterpart, has also made marked improvements to his MMA wrestling amidst his second run with the UFC. Still, Morales can't afford to underestimate the counter-grappling skills of the former champion.
Moreno might have recently been finished on the floor by Tatsuro Taira, but he was still able to win the first frame by locking up a stymying submission attempt. More importantly, Moreno may carry some solid edges on the feet if he's able to keep things standing and extend exchanges.
Although bodywork will be a potent two-way street, Moreno has more experience when it comes to navigating extended exchanges and having to find adjustments down the stretch. Morales' right hand will likely have play in this fight, but so will Moreno's left hooks.
Silva vs. Delgado Pick, Prediction
Despite the oddsmakers setting the former champ as the favorite, public money has pushed this fight to pick'em odds, listing Morales -110 and Moreno -110 as of this writing.
The Morales line took a solid push after the opener, and I can understand the steam.
Even though both men are the same age, the mileage of Moreno is the potential differentiator at this stage of his career. Momentum of wins and losses in this equation aside, I have a hard time feeling good about Moreno's chances after looking at his last two fights.
Moreover, Moreno himself has stated that he's had trouble keeping his head in the game in recent years. Add that in with the context of both his career and recent (once again) camp changes, and this appears to be a tale as old as time regarding past-prime athletes who are having therapy sessions for fights as they search for the recipe that made them.
And when it comes to betting, I'd rather be backing a fighter who is headed to his Super Bowl over the fighter who is headed to their shrink session.
Not only is this Morales' proverbial Super Bowl, but the Mexican-American brings an aggressive grappling style that has proven to be problematic in both victory and defeat for Moreno. For those reasons, I won't get too cute with Morales prop markets (though round two is a hot round for a finish) and will instead stick to his money line.
It's pick a side and ride at these prices, and I believe that the Morales side is good for anything less than -135.
Billy's Picks:
