Yan Xionan vs. Denise Gomes Prediction, Picks, Odds for UFC Shanghai (Saturday, August 29)

Yan Xionan vs. Denise Gomes Odds

Check out the Yan Xionan vs. Denise Gomes prediction for UFC Shanghai on Saturday, August 29, along with my betting preview and breakdown.

UFC Shanghai's co-headliner features a showdown between ranked strawweights Yan Xiaonan and Denise Gomes. Xiaonan is a former title challenger who still holds a Top-5 standing in the division, and will be attempting to hold the proverbial door against the oncoming Denise Gomes.

Gomes may be a whole ten slots down in the rankings, but the Brazilian has proven that she's a formidable threat in her recent four-fight winning streak. Should Gomes pass what is a big step up on paper, then expect the promotion to catapult her as a certified contender.

Here's my Xionan vs. Gomes pick and prediction.

Tale of the Tape

From a stylistic perspective, this fight pits together two striking-first fighters who go about their games in different ways.

Gomes, who is the more pressure-based striker, looks to come forward behind a plethora of power attacks. From varying right hands to hard kicks from either stance, Gomes does her best work when corralling her opposition toward the cage and countering in combination.

Although Gomes' feints and lead-hand work have largely been a smokescreen to land her right-sided strikes for the majority of her career, "DEE" has made clear attempts to round out her approach. That said, Gomes' power and predictability can cause her to throw herself out of position – something she'll need to be mindful of opposite a striker like Yan.

Hailing from a Wushu Sanda background, Yan is a striker who likes to stay light on her feet and fence from the outside. Working behind a strong sidekick and an improved lead hand, Yan has gotten sharper with her sniping abilities.

Whether Yan's lancing the body with crosses or setting up counter hooks up high, the Chinese fighter has made marked improvements to her boxing. Yan has also learned a lesson her current counterpart has yet to in regards to toning down her spinning attacks.

However, we have seen Yan's vaunted output drop when there's a solid takedown threat at play, so don't be shocked if Gomes continues her propensity to push into the clinch.

Although Gomes has a habit of forcing action in close when she doesn't need to, the 26-year-old does have some sneaky trip takedowns and has shown to be serviceable when working from positive positions. But say what you will about Yan's streak of being saved by the bell when it comes to submission threats, the 37-year-old has still shown improved defense against the very best submission specialists in strawweight history.

Xionan vs. Gomes Pick, Prediction

The oddsmakers and the public slightly favor the Chinese fighter, listing Xiaonan -148 and Gomes +124 as of this writing.

Considering the betting public's propensity to get overly excited about age gaps in combat sports, part of me is kind of surprised to not see more love come in on the Gomes side.

Most MMA bettors criminally underrate fighters like Virna Jandiroba, so I was also hoping that Yan faders would look at that loss as vindicating. That said, I still believe that we're getting a solid, playable price on the more proven product in Yan.

Gomes, who I believe is ultimately a single-sided threat given her dependency on her right-sided attacks, has shown suspect fight IQ during the entirety of his four-year UFC tenure. From giving up suspect spots through suspect decisions to her habit of fighting her opponent's fight, Gomes is going to be harder to trust as she climbs the ranks of competition.

And though age gaps are real factors in combat sports, I'd argue that there are longer shelf lives when it comes to women's MMA. But with a large part of Gomes' recent wins coming over aged-out opposition, Yan showing up as a shell of her former self could also sadly be on the table here.

Point spreads may make more sense if you're looking to play on the underdog side of the equation, while SGP's with Yan and the Over 2.5 rounds could save you some skin on the favorite side if you're trying to shave down price tags.

I initially wanted to tip out the round 3/decision prop on Yan, but decided to just stick with the money line since Gomes' aggressive entries could open her up for a reenactment of what Yan did to Jessican Andrade.

The money line could feel like a discount in hindsight, and I believe that it's good to play at any number south of -160.

Dan's Picks: Xionan -145 (Hard Rock Bet)

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