Fares Ziam vs. Axel Sola Odds
| Ziam Odds | -155 |
| Sola Odds | +130 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-230/+175) |
| Location | Accor Arena, Paris, France |
| Bout Time | 5:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC Paris odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Paris with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Fares Ziam vs. Axel Sola prediction for UFC Shanghai on Saturday, August 29, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
UFC Paris' co-headliner features an all-France showdown at lightweight between Fares Ziam and Axel Sola. Ziam, who recently had his winning streak snapped by Tom Nolan, will be looking to get back on track in front of his home country.
Sola, on the other hand, is fresh off a quick win over Ismail Bonfim, which is likely why the 28-year-old was able to make this turnaround. Although this feels like senseless French-on-French violence from the matchmakers, there are quietly five French fighters on the UFC's lightweight roster, so perhaps a collision course was inevitable.
Here's my Ziam vs. Sola pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Ziam | Sola | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 18-5 | 12-1-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:12 | 10:35 |
| Height | 6'1" | 6'0" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 75" | 74" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 3/21/1997 | 7/17/1997 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.68 | 4.50 |
| SS Accuracy | 52% | 50% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 1.58 | 4.53 |
| SS Defense | 63% | 61% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.86 | 1.89 |
| TD Acc | 42% | 36% |
| TD Def | 70% | 66% |
| Submission Avg | 0.5 | 0.5 |
From a stylistic perspective, this fight pits together two opposite-stanced strikers who aren't afraid to grapple.
Sola, the southpaw, strikes with more of a karate-boxer swagger when standing. Often attacking on linear lines, Sola is hardwired to lance one-twos that he varies between the body and head of his opposition. And when Sola is feeling in stride, the Boxing Squad product is not afraid to build off intercepting knees or attach hard kicks to his combinations.
Sola, who has spent time training in Dagestan, is also a willing wrestler and clinch fighter who often attempts phase-changing offense in his fights. And when opponents try to grapple him, Sola shows solid front-choke submissions that he can close the show with.
Most of Ziam's takedowns come from safer clinch positions, but "The Smile Killer" will still need to be on his best behavior when tying up with Sola.
Although Ziam found a lot of success wrestling opponents along the fence in his recent win streak, the 29-year-old's last outing reminded us that he's still not beyond being wrestled himself. Nevertheless, I have to imagine Ziam is continuing to make improvements to his grappling in what will be his second stateside training camp with Trevor Wittman and company.
Wittman, in particular, should be a solid influence on Ziam with regard to sharpening up his jab and fundamentals. Ziam, who operates out of an orthodox stance, has more of a flowing muay Thai style where he looks to counter in combination.
In fact, Ziam, despite technically standing at 2-3 against UFC-level lefties, counters southpaw entries quite well when striking with them on the feet.
Ziam vs. Sola Pick, Prediction
The oddsmakers and the public slightly favor the more experienced UFC fighter, listing Ziam -155 and Sola +130 as of this writing.
Despite initially leaning toward the Sola side at plus money, I ended up officially siding with the favorite, Ziam – albeit not confidently.
Although Sola's size and output should provide some problems for Ziam, Sola's propensity to clinch and go for risky takedowns will likely give his opponent the comfort he's seeking.
In fact, with each combatant used to being the tall man in the equation, I believe that both Ziam and Sola will find themselves uncomfortable in striking exchanges, subsequently looking for even more takedowns than they already average (as this has 'sloppy tall guy fight' written all over it).
For that reason, I'll be attacking Overs in the total markets.
Not only do I believe that the Over 2.5 rounds is one of the few parlay pieces you can even feel decent about on this card, but I also think that the Over side of the total takedown markets is live and playable on both sides of the equation.
I parlayed the Over 2.5 rounds with the Under 3.5 rounds in the main event at even money, and will be taking a stab at both Ziam and Sola's Over 1.5 total takedowns props at plus money – needing just one to hit to either break even or profit.
Dan's Picks: Fares Ziam Over 1.5 Total Takedowns +100 | Axel Sola Over 1.5 Total Takedowns +130 (Both DraftKings)
