The sporting season we've been waiting all summer for is finally upon us. Not the NFL; it's the Contender Series, where 100 or so UFC hopefuls will battle in hopes of earning a UFC contract.
Week 4 might be my favorite week of the season so far from a betting perspective, with only one fight featuring a favorite north of -220 odds. We've got some truly compelling and competitive matchups this time, rather than "set up" fights.
Check out the latest Dana White's Contender Series Week 4 odds with my picks and predictions for each bout on the Tuesday, September 1, fight card.
DWCS Season 10 Episode 4 of Contender Series streams tonight on Paramount+ at 7 p.m. ET (4 p.m. PT) from the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas.
As with all DWCS events, some of the winners – and even some of the losers – could earn an official UFC contract tonight. In fact, the Contender Series has become the UFC's primary feeder system for new talent.
UFC CEO Dana White will be cageside tonight. The UFC boss will determine which fighters have earned a contract with their performances, which also count as official MMA bouts on the fighters' records.
As a reminder, some sportsbooks can be slow to open Contender Series odds and betting markets, though nearly every major sportsbook eventually does post them. And don't forget that you can track your Contender Series bets, and see mine, in the Action App.
Dana White's Contender Series 10 odds as of Tuesday afternoon and via DraftKings. Bet on DWCS Week 4 with our DraftKings promo code.
Dana White's Contender Series Week 4 Odds & Best Bets
Heavyweight: Charlie Cleveland (-218) vs. Gabriel Lourenco (+180)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:15 p.m. ET
The A-side of the first fight of the night is Charlie Cleveland, a 28-year-old 6-1 heavyweight out of Demolition Fight Team in Ohio. Anytime we get a heavyweight with a solid record under the age of 30, the UFC Brass gets excited, and Cleveland looks like a legit prospect.
His lone loss was via submission in his third fight to current UFC fighter RJ Harris, and his last win came against a 9-2 opponent via first-round knockout. Cleveland is on the small side for a heavyweight, weighing in around 245lbs, but would be an above-average athlete by UFC heavyweight standards were he to punch his ticket to the big show.
Cleveland seems to have a boxing base, and is an aggressive southpaw who presses forward and tries to overwhelm opponents with superior speed and technique. Doing so is obviously much easier against regional-level heavyweights, but I don't doubt he could apply that plan against some percentage of the UFC heavyweight roster.
He also seemed to have leveled up his grappling since the submission loss to Harris, defending a bunch of takedown attempts from a former D1 wrestler in his last fight. That opponent was a smaller heavyweight/occasional light heavyweight, so I'm not sure how well that takedown defense holds up against bigger and stronger fighters — but we also won't find that out tonight.
That's because Gabriel Lourenco is an undersized heavyweight himself, weighing in at less than 230lbs for this fight. He could obviously make 205lbs if he wanted or needed to, but has probably wisely taken the path of least resistance and chosen to fight in a less skilled division.
Training out of the original Chute Boxe in Brazil, he has a 6-1 record, losing in his debut to Igor Cavalcanti, who is scheduled to fight on Week 6 of the Contender Series this season — though that fight is at middleweight and Cavalcanti has fought as low as welterweight. It's hard to get a read on Lourenco's overall skills since he's fought for lower-level promotions, and a large chunk of his career was spent in lighter weight classes. To his credit, he seems to have put on some muscle since his last appearance in November of 2025 and is just 26 years old.
At heavyweight, his best win came against a 3-1 opponent whom he demolished fairly easily. He's handled his business appropriately against lesser competition, and it's hard to say whether that will play up to better opponents or not.
This line has shifted somewhat to Cleveland throughout the week, with Cleveland originally around -185 on Sunday. I wanted to be on the Cleveland side before checking the lines, and I certainly don't want to lay more than -200 on him. The under 1.5 round prop is heavily juiced at -375, which suggests how this one is likely to go between two violent brawlers, but is also not what I'd consider playable.
Instead, I'm going to reluctantly take a stab at Lourenco given the line movement. The +180 price is pretty generous given the volatility of this fight, and Lourenco could've made considerable improvements in 10 months at age 26, so it's a half-unit bet on the underdog for me. His knockout prop (+225) isn't much better odds than his moneyline, so I'm keeping it simple.
Prediction: Lourenco via knockout
Billy's Bet: Lourenco +185
Lightweight: Adam Livingston (-192) vs. Hunter Smith (+160)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:45 p.m. ET
Adam "Bomb" Livingston (get it?) returns to the Contender Series after suffering a first-round submission loss to Tommy Gantt in 2025. I picked Gantt in that fight, as I wrote about here.
Livingston has just one fight since then, a second-round knockout victory over a 7-3 opponent in LFA. I watched that fight in hopes of seeing some progression from Livingston, whom I originally scouted as being aggressive and explosive, but somewhat limited in overall skills and defense. Watching his recent fight, I was mildly disappointed to see nothing had changed, as Livingston marched forward throwing huge punches, eating some along the way, and eventually landing a spinning back elbow to finish his opponent.
While that's certainly an archetype that can play at the highest levels of the sport, it's not the most trustworthy. The biggest issue is Livingston is a good-not-great athlete, and doesn't have the extreme physical gifts to make that style work against better opponents.
The question is whether or not Hunter Smith qualifies. "Headshot" is 8-1 with six knockout wins, and avenged his only loss in his last fight. I was impressed by Smith's boxing; he's one of the rare regional-level MMA fighters who truly commits to his jab, and he's an excellent counter striker. His style is also incredibly fun. Smith is allergic to taking a step back, but wants to counter rather than lead the dance, so he marches forward trying to draw out swings and misses from his opponent so he can tag them.
On the downside, he'll get a bit overexcited and sloppily press the issue if his opponent isn't providing countering opportunities, and he tends to overextend himself if he hurts, but doesn't finish, his opponents.
The good news for Smith is that Livingston will provide plenty of openings to be countered. This is about as perfect a matchup for Smith as you could dream up, since Livingston is unlikely to press the grappling either.
There's a solid chance Livingston catches Smith with a big shot early, but neither man has ever been knocked out, and only one of them has any interest in defense. That's Smith, who I'm siding with at decent plus-money as the more skilled fighter in this matchup. With that said, if Smith has some big moments early but doesn't finish the fight, I'm considering jumping in on Livingston live to lock in a profit either way should the line move appropriately. DraftKings has the best line at +164
Prediction: Smith via Decision
Billy's Bets: Hunter Smith +164 (DraftKings)
Lightweight: Liam McCracken (-130) vs. Silvestre Sanchez (+110)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:15 p.m. ET
I'm inverting the order I discuss this fight, opening with talking about the line rather than the fighters. This one has seen some surprising line movement, with McCracken opening around -300, and still -200 or so on Sunday. While the opener was almost certainly too long, I was interested in McCracken's moneyline anywhere inside of -200, so -130 seems like a steal.
With that said, it also seems like a bit of a square bet, given that the public is on McCracken and the line is moving against him. All of that said, I'm trusting my eyes/reads here rather than trying to outplay the market, and sticking with my pick of McCracken.
The Liverpudlian is 8-1 at 25 years old, with an amateur record dating back to before he turned 16. His pro record is 100% finishes (5 KO/3 SUB); he holds a BJJ black belt, and his best ability might be his boxing, not his grappling. My overall scouting report is that he's good at everything, a great boxer, and a solid athlete. My biggest criticism of his game is his fight IQ — McCracken loves to clinch, and he's good at it, but will occasionally let opponents off the hook by clinching them when he was winning at range. That's fine at lower levels when you can also dominate in the clinch, but will eventually cost him a fight.
He was also a bit overly patient in his last fight, but that was scheduled for five rounds, and I'd expect more immediate output here.
Silvestre Sanchez is 9-1 but has never fought an opponent with more than four wins. He's a sloppy striker who has been able to overwhelm lesser competition with his athleticism and power, but isn't especially skilled. He did hit some nice trips along the fence/in clinch positions in the tape I saw — which brings me back to my "stop clinching" point for McCracken — but is a lesser grappler overall.
In fact, the only area I give Sanchez the edge here is power. That's sometimes enough, but as we know by now: Scousers don't get knocked out. As mentioned above, I'm thrilled to get McCracken at this price, and his moneyline is my favorite bet on the card.
Prediction: McCracken via KO/Decision
Billy's Bet: Liam McCracken -130 (DraftKings)
Middleweight: Brandon Holmes (-170) vs. Modesto Rodrigues (+142)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:45 p.m. ET
Holmes is the second returning DWCS fighter this week, suffering his first career loss in his appearance last year against Cam Rowston, who is now 3-0 in the UFC. Rowston was an extremely tough matchup for Holmes, who I identified as really struggling against longer fighters, which led to my underdog bet on Rowston last year.
I was somewhat impressed by the tape on Holmes heading into that fight, but it was a terrible stylistic matchup and played out about how I expected. What I really appreciate about Holmes is that he then took a fight against another tall/long opponent in LFA after that loss, picking up a first-round slam knockout against an undefeated 6'3" fighter.
Holmes had clearly improved his range management in the time between fights, using his footwork to work his way inside and look to grapple, rather than attempt to brawl with his opponent at a range where he couldn't hit but could be hit. That's what I like to see from a returning fighter — plugging the holes in their game, rather than doubling down on the same thing that didn't work for them like Livingston.
Holmes will need that improvement/experience here, as he's been unfortunately matched up with a 6'3" kick boxer nicknamed "Slenderman" who should have plenty of reach on Holmes. Modesto Rodrigues hasn't had an MMA fight since last summer, with his last combat experience coming in the K1 kickboxing tournament last fall, where he was knocked out in the third fight of a one-night Grand Prix.
His MMA competition leaves much to be desired, and all I could learn from watching his tape was that he is a good enough striker to knock out completely outclassed opponents in low-level regional promotions. My best UFC comp is "Nursulton Ruziboev minus the grappling," which is far from a glowing review, though at just 22 there's plenty of time for him to round out his skill set.
With Rodrigues out of MMA competition for more than a year, that may have already happened, but I'm not willing to bet on it. Look for Holmes to close the distance and get this done — with Rodrigues perhaps filling out his game and returning next year to continue the cycle.
Prediction: Holmes by Decision
Billy's Bet: Holmes -170 (DraftKings)
Welterweight: Adam Darby (-425) vs. Patrick Rivera (+330)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:15 p.m. ET
The final fight of the night is the only obvious "showcase" fight on the card, featuring a 7-1 27-year-old taking on a 13-4 34-year-old, with the former being the heavy favorite, Adam Darby.
As a 6'3 Irish welterweight, the Ian Garry comparisons are a bit obvious but not wholly inappropriate. Darby is — or has been in regional fights — more aggressive with both striking and grappling than Garry, but I'd rate him as a slightly worse overall athlete.
He's at least a BJJ brown belt, earning that honor more than two years ago (I was unable to find evidence of a black belt since), and is a very strong boxer. In both striking and grappling, he matches his style to his frame extremely well. On the feet, he keeps opponents at bay with jabs and teep kicks. In close range, he's a master of front headlocks, winning his last fight via ninja choke, a move he had threatened his prior opponent with.
Patrick Rivera is a solid journeyman but most recently fought a 28-42, 44-year-old opponent. Just one of his last six opponents had a winning record, and he was submitted by a 7-6 fighter before that. He's a solid pro without any extraordinary skills or traits, who doesn't have much more than a puncher's chance here.
I wouldn't blame anyone for getting greedy and taking Darby by submission here, since Rivera's last three losses came via grappling. However, he might be looking to put on a show for the Contender Series, and he certainly has the ability to win this one with strikes as well.
I'm taking the safer pick of Darby inside the distance, with the best line being -175 at DraftKings. Darby to win in the first two rounds is -140 and also makes sense if you want a slightly better price.
Prediction: Darby via Submission
Billy's Bet: Darby Inside the Distance -175 (DraftKings)
