The sporting season we've been waiting all summer for is finally upon us. Not the NFL; it's the Contender Series, where 100 or so UFC hopefuls will battle in hopes of earning a UFC contract.
Week 5 gives us a reasonable mix of close matchups with one or two (depending on your definition) set-up fights. It's also nice to have mostly fresh faces, with just one fighter returning from last season.
Check out the latest Dana White's Contender Series Week 5 odds with my picks and predictions for each bout on the Tuesday, September 8, fight card.
DWCS Season 10 Episode 5 of Contender Series streams tonight on Paramount+ at 7 p.m. ET (4 p.m. PT) from the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas.
As with all DWCS events, some of the winners – and even some of the losers – could earn an official UFC contract tonight. In fact, the Contender Series has become the UFC's primary feeder system for new talent.
UFC CEO Dana White will be cageside tonight. The UFC boss will determine which fighters have earned a contract with their performances, which also count as official MMA bouts on the fighters' records.
As a reminder, some sportsbooks can be slow to open Contender Series odds and betting markets, though nearly every major sportsbook eventually does post them. And don't forget that you can track your Contender Series bets and see mine in the Action App.
Dana White's Contender Series 10 odds as of Tuesday afternoon via DraftKings. Bet on DWCS Week 5 with our DraftKings promo code.
Dana White's Contender Series Week 5 Odds & Best Bets
Flyweight: Christian Natividad (-305) vs. Colton Loud (+245)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:15 p.m. ET
As often happens once we get to the middle of the Contender Series season, one of the defining features of this card is all of the late replacement fighters on the card. Enough time has passed since the season was announced for a variety of injuries and issues to pop up, including in the opening bout.
Interestingly, the late replacement fighter is Christian Natividad, who is also a heavy favorite. He's stepping in for 22-year-old Fighting Nerds prospect Frank Silva, who has now withdrawn from DWCS bouts in consecutive years with Visa issues. The UFC was probably very interested in signing Silva, which tells me they see Colton Loud as a relatively safe option to pair against fighters they want on the roster.
That is also a bit of a surprise, since Loud is 7-1 with seven finishes and just 25 years old. His strength of schedule is fairly weak, though, and he's the only active UFC fighter at his gym, which is led by former UFC fighters Mark and Montana De La Rosa. He's also competed just once since 2024, winning that fight in 22 seconds, making it hard to get a read on him.
On the plus side, Loud is tall for flyweight (he's listed between 5'8 and 5'10" depending on the source) with a good tall-guy striking arsenal, utilizing knees and kicks to stay at range. He's also an adept submission grappler. His first and only pro loss came via D'Arce choke, and he used that technique in his next two wins. I love the growth mindset it takes to turn a weakness into a strength, as he clearly spent a lot of time working D'Arce chokes after that loss.
The one negative note I had when watching his tape was that he'll probably struggle against wrestlers. His tall and thin frame makes him easy to take down, and he's more interested in hunting submissions from his back than getting back to his feet.
Unfortunately for Loud, that makes Christian Natividad a terrible matchup. Natividad is the younger brother of former UFC fighter Kevin Natividad, and also a former D1 wrestler at Arizona State. He's a plus-athlete who punches his way into range, looks for takedowns aggressively, then stays busy on top, mixing in strikes and submission threats. Natividad is elite at holding opponents down, a rare trait in the lighter weight classes. In his last three fights, every takedown he landed led to him either finishing his opponent or keeping them their until the end of the round.
I'd actually be comfortable laying the three-to-one odds on Natividad if push came to shove, but he's not an elite finisher, and Loud is fairly well-versed in submission defense. Instead, I'm taking Natividad's Round 3/Decision prop, which is +125 at DraftKings, but keep an eye out for better lines from other books later.
Prediction: Natividad by Decision
Billy's Bet: Natividad Round 3/Decision +125 (DraftKings)
Bantamweight: Kwon Won Il (-142) vs. Apollo Gomes (+120)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:45 p.m. ET
After returning fighters went 1-1 last week (the loss coming via a very bad early stoppage), we have just one fighter making a second DWCS appearance in Week 5. That's Kwon Won Il, who was knocked out by Juan Diaz in the second round last season.
I was surprised to see Kwon getting another shot immediately, since he came into last year off a knockout loss and hasn't fought since losing to Diaz. I bet against him last season because I perceived a grappling edge for Diaz, who landed a pair of takedowns. The fact that Diaz was also able to knock him out was a bad sign, since Kwon's edge was theoretically on the feet.
Apollo Gomes is a lesser prospect than Diaz, coming in with a solid 12-2 record but shaky opposition. He needed a split decision in his last fight against a 12-3 opponent, and most of his previous wins came against fighters with somewhat weak records.
A Chute Boxe product, he has a somewhat predictable Muay Thai style, with good leg kicks and clinch work. Most of his opponents seemed committed to taking him down which suggests his strikes might have been more powerful than they appeared, and his takedown defense held up very well in most of his bouts. However, I wasn't super impressed by his striking, as he largely fights moving backward while looking to counter, without much obvious ability to press the action.
However, I trust his durability more than Kwon's, since the latter is 31 years old coming off consecutive knockout losses. It should be mostly a striking fight with fairly low output on both sides, so if either man can hurt their opponent, they'll probably win the round.
That said, I'll be looking to buy back on Kwon live if he moves to plus money. Gomes' retreating style is very taxing from a cardio standpoint, and more importantly, I don't especially want to take a firm position on either fighter, and I'd be happy to lock in a small profit.
The +120 line at DraftKings is the best current odds, but we've seen movement in both directions since lines opened, so be sure to shop around.
Prediction: Gomes via Decision
Billy's Bets: Gomes +120 (DraftKings)
Middleweight: Martin Kozak (-550) vs. Christian Echols (+410)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:15 p.m. ET
The obvious A-side of this middleweight bout is Martin Kozak, the heaviest favorite on the card, who is facing a late replacement opponent in Christian Echols. The UFC seems interested in pushing Kozak, as his original opponent hadn't fought in two years outside of a "Record ineligible" bout and also would've been a heavy underdog to Kozak.
Kozak is 6-0 with six finishes, and four of those fights came against opponents with winning records. He stands 6'4" with a 75" reach, which will be a seven-inch edge over Echols. Kozak uses his height well, pressuring forward gradually with jabs and front kicks while trying to draw out swings from his opponent so he can counter. I was impressed by his takedown and striking defense — I don't think he absorbed a single clean shot in his last two fights.
Kozak does have a tendency to get into staring contests if his opponent refuses to engage (think the presumably departed Michael Page), which will make him a tough watch in certain matchups. However, this isn't one of those matchups, as Echols is a hyper-aggressive striker who wins more on effort and enthusiasm than on high-level skills or athletic gifts.
The 8-4 Echols is mostly known for knocking out wrestler Pat Downey in Bellator, but that win has aged poorly, with Downey giving up on MMA since that loss. Echols is just 5'9" but missed weight for this fight — and had a recent LFA fight also canceled because he weighed in 9 lbs over the limit for that catchweight bout.
Stylistically, he's a near-perfect opponent for Kozak, since he swings wildly while hoping to hit home runs. He's a solid grappler but not an elite takedown artist, and will have a hard time getting into grappling range against the much longer Kozak.
While the smaller Apex cage helps a bit, I doubt it's enough. I also worry about his gas tank, given both the weight miss and the short-notice nature of this fight.
Echols does seem fairly tough, though, so I'm taking a flier on Kozak in the second and third rounds. I'm listing the DraftKings odds here as they're the first to post, but we could get better lines elsewhere, so follow me in the free Action App to see where I end up once more books offer these props.
Prediction: Kozak via Knockout
Billy's Bet: Kozak Round 2 (+500) Round 3 (+1200)
Welterweight: Isaac Moreno (-130) vs. Reginaldo Junior (+110)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:45 p.m. ET
The final opponent switch this week comes in the welterweight bout between Isaac Moreno and Reginaldo Junior, with Junior originally slated to face 19-4, 31-year-old Stefano Paterno, but instead getting undefeated prospect Isaac Moreno.
This is definitely a tougher matchup for the Fighting Nerds fighter. Junior knocked out Jean Silva in a kickboxing match in 2019, but joined the team following his first (and only) career loss in 2023, going 5-0 since then. All five of those fights came against opponents with winning records, as did all but two of his previous fights.
Junior is a BJJ black belt who also packs power in his hands, as evidenced by his knockout win over Silva and a 26-second win over the previously undefeated Leonardo Almeida. His wins aren't always pretty, with Junior often finding himself shelled up against the fence waiting for his opponents to tire themselves out, but he seems to have both a good chin and a solid ability to deflect strikes rather than eat them cleanly.
His last opponent shares some stylistic similarities with Moreno, with both of them coming from Taekwondo backgrounds. Junior handled that unique challenge well, resisting the urge to swing big and open up counters, while showing excellent timing on his takedowns. That timing is crucial against fighters with this style, as they tend to bounce back and forth, so catching them as they step in makes takedowns much easier.
Moreno is a much better athlete and fighter than Junior's last opponent, though. He's 8-0 with five finishes, the most recent coming against UFC veteran Darian Weeks late in the first round of an LFA fight last October. He also beat UFC veteran Melvin Guillard before that, though the "Young Assassin" was 42 years old at the time and took the fight on a day's notice.
Moreno is similar to Kozak in that he's comfortable waiting at range and flicking out the occasional leg kick. He also tends to throw single shots, with the finish over Weeks coming when he finally committed to throwing a combination and varying the levels of his strikes.
This fight mostly comes down to range, with Moreno being the better fighter with space and Junior having the advantage in the clinch and on the ground. The crucial difference here is that Moreno and Junior have essentially identical reach, so Moreno can't comfortably potshot from the outside without exposing himself to danger, and he has the bad habit of pulling back with his chin in the air as he exits exchanges.
Between Junior's potential to find the exposed chin should Moreno leave it out there and has grappling edge, I'm taking a stab at the underdog. Junior is widely available at +110 odds.
Prediction: Junior via TKO/Decision
Billy's Bet: Junior +110 (DraftKings)
Light Heavyweight: Arlind Berisha (-155) vs. Quentin Pasley (+130)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:15 p.m. ET
The "featured fight" (DWCS cards don't have "main events") of Week 5 is a strange one. Arlind Berisha is 5-0 but has never faced an opponent with a winning record, has never seen a second round, and has just one fight that's lasted longer than 72 seconds. Normally that would make him the less experienced/proven fighter in a DWCS fight, but not this time.
That's because Quentin Pasley is 3-0 and has never faced an opponent who had previously won a professional MMA fight. The three fighters he's beaten had a combined record of 0-8 when they met. He's also never seen a second round as a pro, with his longest fight finishing in less than three minutes.
Both men have looked extremely impressive in their very limited available tape, but that's not saying much given the opponents they've been matched with. Neither seems to train at a gym with any other UFC-level fighters, either, so there's not a lot to go on here.
Berisha likes to stand at range and bomb on his overwhelmed opponents, while Pasley is a plus-athlete with pro grappling experience, so this is potentially a striker vs. grappler matchup, but it's hard to say.
I don't really have any scouting-based reasons to bet either man, but it's notable that Berisha has about 80% of Tapology predictions while his line has dropped from -205 to -155 over the past day or so. I'll cautiously side with what appears to be sharp action and take a small bet on Pasley, with FanDuel offering the best line at +136 odds.
Prediction: Pasley via TKO
Billy's Bet: Pasley +136 (FanDuel)
