Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Song Yadong Odds
| Nurmagomedov Odds | -625 |
| Yadong Odds | +455 |
| Over/Under | 4.5 (-245/+185) |
| Location | Shanghai Indoor Stadium, Shanghai, China |
| Bout Time | 8:45 a.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC Shanghai odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Shanghai with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Song Yadong prediction for UFC Shanghai on Saturday, August 29, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Former title challenger Umar Nurmagomedov meets Song Yadong in what amounts to a "keep busy" fight for Nurmagomedov, as he awaits the conclusion of the Petr Yan-Merab Dvalishvili trilogy before a second potential title shot. That makes this a big opportunity for Song to pull off an upset and insert his name in the title picture as he fights up the rankings against Nurmagomedov.
Oddsmakers don't give him much of a chance, with Nurmagomedov a -500 favorite on Monday. As of Friday, that line has moved all the way to -625 — suggesting bettors see this as fairly one-sided as well.
Here's my Nurmagomedov vs. Yadong pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Nurmagomedov | Yadong | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 20-1 | 23-9-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 14:04 | 13:00 |
| Height | 5'8" | 5'8" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 69" | 67" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 01/03/1996 | 12/02/1997 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.86 | 4.34 |
| SS Accuracy | 56% | 43% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 1.86 | 3.81 |
| SS Defense | 61% | 55% |
| Take Down Avg | 4.03 | 0.82 |
| TD Acc | 46% | 41% |
| TD Def | 79% | 73% |
| Submission Avg | 0.2 | 0.2 |
I'm not sure what to make of Umar Nurmagomedov, cousin of the legendary Khabib. Like his cousin (and brother Usman, and long-time training partner Islam Makhachev, etc.) he's obviously an elite MMA fighter. Unlike the more heralded members of that clan, though, it's been hard to describe him as "dominant" even during his wins.
Usman relies more on his striking than the other Nurmagomedovs we've had in the UFC, with slick counter-striking and fast kicks that he can throw fairly recklessly since he's not worried about his opponent taking him down. However, he lacks power on most of his shots, having scored just one knockdown in his nine UFC fights.
He also has the suffocating grappling we've come to expect based on his last name, but not the aggressive top game we've seen from Khabib or Makhachev (at least when fighting at 155lbs). Nurmagomedov is fairly content to salt away rounds from top position without taking much risk, and hasn't been officially credited with so much as a submission attempt since his second UFC fight in 2022.
On the one hand, this makes him an incredibly difficult fighter to beat. On the other hand, it makes him a tough watch, andvulnerable to getting upset by more active fighters who can swing rounds with their volume. That's exactly what happened in his title loss to Dvalishvili, with a relatively close fight going "The Machine's" way in large part due to superior activity.
The other fatal flaw for Nurmagomedov is his chin. He was dropped by Bekzat Almakhan in the latter's short-notice UFC debut, and also by Mario Bautista, a famously boring bantamweight who failed to knockdown nine straight opponents before Nurmagomedov. Getting dropped twice in nine UFC bouts isn't awful on its own, but given the low volume of shots he absorbs (less than two per minute), it's somewhat concerning.
To his credit, Nurmagomedov recovered well and won both of those fights. Still, if he keeps rolling the dice he eventually won't, whether that means an outright knockout or simply judges deciding against him thanks to a knockdown in an otherwise close fight.
Song Yadong is the polar opposite, a fighter who often loses minutes thanks to his poor striking accuracy, but with the power to produce big moments. Five of his 12 UFC wins are via knockout, with an additional club-and-sub submission finish.
Training out of Team Alpha Male, Song has made massive strides in his grappling throughout his UFC career, and is somehow the younger fighter despite nearly a decade of UFC experience — but will still be at a massive disadvantage in that department against a life long grappler like Nurmagomedov. Calling this "striker vs. grappler" is probably an oversimplification, but there's an element of that at play.
Nurmagomedov vs. Yadong Pick, Prediction
This fight is -200 to go the distance, and that might be a generous line considering Nurmagomedov's trash talk this week includes such gems as "25 minutes you will drown, long time half guard"
Song Yadong and Umar Nurmagomedov had strong words for each other ahead of #UFCShanghai 😳
Song: You are fragile man.. chinny, bro. Chinny.
Umar: We will see when I hold you down.. 25 minutes, you will drown. Long time, half guard. You will be easy fight.
(Via UFC YouTube) pic.twitter.com/8sfGNDJrr6
— UFC Central (@TheUFCentral) August 26, 2026
It seems pretty clear Nurmagomedov won't take any chances for a finish here, and he's -175 to win by decision. Rather than lay that juice, I prefer taking Song's alternate point spread of +9.5, which relies on him surviving 25 minutes and winning a single round. It's a better price at -110, and it includes a Song finish as a win condition, which is worth the risk of a dominant five-round sweep from the favorite.
Billy's Picks: Song +9.5 Points -110 (DraftKings)
