Amanda Lemos vs. Alexa Thainara Odds
| Lemos Odds | +195 |
| Thainara Odds | -238 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-210/+160) |
| Location | UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Bout Time | 9:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC Vegas 120 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Vegas 120 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Amanda Lemos vs. Alexa Thainara prediction for UFC Vegas 120 on Saturday, August 8, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Alexia Thainara will face her toughest test to date in her young career, when she meets strawweight contender Amanda Lemos on Saturday. Thainara is just 3-0 during her short time in the UFC, but it’s clear she is improving rapidly as she ascends the official rankings in her division.
She will enter this fight against a veteran as a substantial favorite, but I do have some concerns about her price tag at this early stage.
Tale of the Tape
| Lemos | Thainara | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 15-6-1 | 14-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:46 | 12:23 |
| Height | 5'4" | 5'4" |
| Weight (pounds) | 115 lbs. | 115 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 65" | 67" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 5/22/1987 | 11/20/1995 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.75 | 4.62 |
| SS Accuracy | 55% | 43% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.01 | 2.46 |
| SS Defense | 45% | 59% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.02 | 4.54 |
| TD Acc | 64% | 57% |
| TD Def | 63% | 100% |
| Submission Avg | 0.7 | 1.8 |
Amanda Lemos represents a huge step-up in competition for Thainara. I confidently label her as a contender given her strength of schedule in recent years, and for the fact that she has a victory over the current champion in the strawweight division – Mackenzie Dern. That victory over Dern was just over two years ago in 2024, and since then, she has remained active by taking on some of the most difficult matchups her weight class has to offer.
Lemos is a powerful striker who can be extremely aggressive at close-range. Unafraid to clinch to set up for elbows and knees, having to step in the cage with three of the division’s best grapplers over her last four fights was always going to be an uphill battle. Lemos has only one win in her last four outings, but those three losses came against title challengers Gillian Robertson, Virna Jandiroba, and Tatiana Suarez.
The gameplan for each of those three women was quite simple – avoid striking with Lemos and get her to the mat where she can be controlled. All three of those women landed takedowns, but it wasn’t easy. In total Lemos defended successfully on 73% of takedown attempts (17 of 23).
As mentioned, the issue for Lemos remains her inability to get back to her feet when her back does hit the mat. She is a skilled submission grappler, but she does not scramble well enough to avoid poor positions. In her most recent bout with Robertson, Lemos was controlled for nearly seven and a half minutes of the final two rounds. Lemos had an edge in significant strikes of 25 to 5 before Roberson took over in those final two frames. We’ve seen Lemos lose steam the deeper into fights she goes, and that will undoubtedly remain a major concern at 39 years of age.
The flaw in her stamina is even more concerning when you consider Lemos’ opponent Thainara can put a pace on any fighter she steps into the octagon with, as she is just now entering her prime. Thainara has landed 4.6 significant strikes per minute and has defended strikes at range quite well at 59%. However, it would be a mistake to give Lemos opportunities in the stand-up realm at range.
Thainara will have a reach advantage and strikes with volume at kickboxing range, but even Bruna Brasil was able to land 31 of 50 significant strikes against her at distance while also connecting on all 6 of her strike attempts in the clinch. Thainara cannot afford to play this game, given the experience and power of her opponent in this spot, and should follow the gameplan outlined by others who have had success controlling Lemos.
Thainara will have a considerable athleticism advantage and while she needs to press this edge, she needs to be cautious on her entries. The speed in which she can transition from position should ultimately allow her to gain the upper-hand and find a dominant position, but the odds of her making a mistake outweigh the implied price oddsmakers are posting here to take a shot on the underdog in this fight.
Lemos vs. Thainara Pick, Prediction
Thainara is already ranked 10th in the official UFC rankings despite just having three fights under the UFC banner. If she makes this look easy, which she absolutely could, then the discourse surrounding her will be that the sky is the limit for the ever-improving 28 year old. However, getting a better than 2-to-1 price tag on a fighter with the skills and experience of Lemos is enough to tempt me into backing the underdog for a half of a unit.
Thainara is rightfully installed as the favorite versus the aging Lemos, but at +200 or better I’ll take my chances with the much more experienced, battle-tested fighter.
John's Pick:Amanda Lemos +215 (DraftKings)
