The sporting season we've been waiting for all summer is finally here. Not the NFL; it's the Contender Series, where 100 or so UFC hopefuls will battle to earn a UFC contract.
Week 7 might have the most UFC-level prospects of any card this season, though a few would probably be better served waiting one more year before attempting the leap. Still, there's plenty of talent, and some very close matchups.
Check out the latest Dana White's Contender Series Week 7 odds with my picks and predictions for each bout on the Tuesday, September 22, fight card.
DWCS Season 10 Episode 7 of Contender Series streams tonight on Paramount+ at 7 p.m. ET (4 p.m. PT) from the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas.
As with all DWCS events, some of the winners – and even some of the losers – could earn an official UFC contract tonight. In fact, the Contender Series has become the UFC's primary feeder system for new talent.
UFC CEO Dana White will be cageside tonight. The UFC boss will determine which fighters have earned a contract with their performances, which also count as official MMA bouts on the fighters' records.
As a reminder, some sportsbooks can be slow to open Contender Series odds and betting markets, though nearly every major sportsbook eventually does post them. And don't forget that you can track your Contender Series bets and see mine in the Action App.
Dana White's Contender Series 10 odds as of Tuesday afternoon via DraftKings. Bet on DWCS Week 7 with our DraftKings promo code.
Dana White's Contender Series Week 7 Odds & Best Bets
Light Heavyweight: Damian Piwowarczyk (-130) vs. Emillio Quissua (+110)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:15 p.m. ET
The first fight of Week 7 features a pair of light heavyweights who would both be competitive against plenty of current UFC 205ers — though that's more an indictment of the division than an endorsement of either man in this contest. While either or both of them could stick around and pick off lower-level competition, I don't view either as elite prospects or future contenders.
The slight favorite here is KSW standout Damian Piwowarczyk, a 6'6 training partner of Robert Brcyzek, who fights in the co-main event this weekend. Piwowarczyk comes into the event on a three-fight winning streak, all inside the distance.
Depending on your perspective, Piwowarczyk either uses his height and length well, or is overly reliant on that attribute. He mostly fights backing up, while desperately trying to maintain range from his opponents so he can set his feet and look to set up big shots. He's somewhat uncomfortable when his opponents are able to get into close range, though, and his defensive flaws become apparent in tight quarters.
"Damsyn" is a plus-athlete (especially by light heavyweight standards) who strikes me as someone who has become accustomed to running over his opponents thanks to his physical and athletic gifts. To his credit, he's also a solid submission grappler who uses his height and length well in grappling exchanges.
On the feet, he threatens guillotines anytime an opponent drops their head, and on the ground his long limbs make his guard dangerous, which stops wrestler types from blindly shooting and/or resting from top position.
Not that I expect those skills to come up this time, as he fights German striker Emilio Quissua. Quissua is also a tall/long fighter who relies on that length to win exchanges, but at 6'3" won't have that option here. Unlike Piwowarczyk, he fights better moving forward, but tries to thread the needle of both pressuring forward and keeping his typically shorter opponents at the end of his punches.
I rate his level of competition somewhat poorly, and his last two wins came from a freak knee injury and an opponent who immediately rolled for a leg lock, got stuck on bottom, and was finished by Quissua with strikes. Neither is particularly relevant for the matchup at hand.
While Quissua is the more technical striker who operates behind a heavy dose of feints and leg kicks, he's somewhat less explosive than Piwowarczyk. Coupled with Quissua having to adjust to being the shorter fighter, a rare occurrence for him, I see that as a problem. He lacks the burst to explode into range, and will get picked apart from the outside by the longer man.
The line has shifted a bit since I tracked a -114 bet on Piwowarczyk in the free Action app, but you can still get -126 odds via FanDuel, and I'd play it down to -140.
Prediction: Piwowarczyk by TKO
Billy's Bet: Piwowarczyk -126 (FanDuel)
Lightweight: Piero Guaylupo (-112) vs. Callum Connor (-108)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:45 p.m. ET
Compared to the light heavyweight opener, the second bout of the night features two fighters with higher ceilings in the UFC, but potentially less ready for the promotion at this moment — especially in a much more skilled lightweight division.
The 21-year-old Guaylupo might be the best long-term prospect on the card. However, he's relatively untested, fighting almost exclusively in lower-level organizations in his native Peru. He's picked up 10 straight knockout victories since a decision win in his pro debut at age 18, but his best opponents were a pair of 10-5 regional fighters.
Guaylupo has all the physical tools needed for success, with extremely fast hands, good power, and above-average size and strength for 155 lbs. He's very raw, though, and typically looks to land massive overhand rights with little setup, rather than throwing combinations or misdirecting opponents with feints and other strikes. That's likely a natural consequence of him being athletically so far ahead of his typical competition, as he hasn't really needed to set up his strikes.
He's also somewhat reckless defensively, dropping his hands and relying on his speed/reflexes to narrowly dodge punches, then relying on his chin when that plan struggles. That's not terrible at his age, but he'll need to shore up his defense to succeed against UFC-level lightweights.
His grappling is mostly a question mark; he defended a few takedown attempts well in the tape I could find, but mostly avoided them by keeping opponents on the back foot and/or knocking them out before it came up.
His opponent this week is England's Callum Connor, who trains out of Manchester Top Team with Leon Edwards among other British pros. A Muay Thai fighter since he was a child, Connor is 8-0 at age 26, though like Guaylupo, his level of competition leaves much to be desired.
Connor will have four inches of height and five inches of reach on Guaylupo in this matchup, which will be an important factor given his style. He typically maintains distance well and has a more textbook striking style, working behind jabs, throwing combos, and looking to attack his opponent's legs.
He's also excellent from the Thai clinch, using his knees and elbows well in close range. That's a critical skill for longer fighters, as they need some form of deterrent to stop shorter, typically more powerful, fighters from crashing into the pocket. Besides the clinch itself, Connor also throws quick knees up the middle when his opponents try to close the gap.
I believe he'll be able to use those skills to stymie the younger fighter this time, though the ceiling is probably higher on Guaylupo. It's a scary bet since Connor needs to win minutes while Guaylupo just needs one big shot, but we've never seen Connor knocked out and he's fairly defensively sound, so I'll take that risk at -104 via FanDuel.
Prediction: Connor by Decision
Billy's Bets: Callum Connor -104 (FanDuel)
Flyweight: Marcos Degli (-410) vs. Paris Moran (+320)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:15 p.m. ET
The top prospect on the show this week is Brazilian Marcos Degli, a student of Carlos Prates at his new training camp, Vale Top Team in Sao Paulo. Degli is 14-3 with his losses all coming in his first five pro fights, two of those coming against fellow future DWCS competitors.
Degli brings the old-school aggressive Muay Thai and BJJ style we've seen from so many past Brazilian standouts, including Prates. He's probably a better grappler than Prates, though, showing some slick scrambles and escapes whenever his opponents were able to briefly get him to the ground.
His standup game is more impressive, though, with brutal elbows from close quarters and a range attack based around his brutal leg kicks. That will be an interesting dynamic against his southpaw opponent this week.
I’m not usually super concerned about "southpaw splits" in MMA, but it feels a bit more relevant here, given Degli’s reliance on leg kicks at range to slow down his opponents. There’s not much tape of him against higher-level lefties, and kicking across the body is a different process than typical outside kicks. He’ll probably be able to adapt – and he would occasionally switch to southpaw himself and land leg kicks from an open stance on righties – but it’s worth noting.
Unsurprisingly, Degli's footwork and defense are also a bit lacking, but he seems content wading through damage in order to land his own, with the toughness and durability to win those exchanges the vast majority of the time.
That's not something that Paris Moran can say. The tall, lanky flyweight doesn't bring much power, and he's unofficially been knocked out twice — one was later overturned due to his opponent testing positive for marijuana, but that doesn't erase the damage Moran took. Of course, those knockouts came against UFC fighter Aiden Coria and UFC champion Josh Van, all of whom now train together at 4ox Fight Club in Houston.
Moran is a solid technical fighter who is at his best when using straight shots to capitalize on his height and length. His finish wins have largely come due to an accumulation of damage over the length of the fight rather than one big shot or combo, and he's a solid minute-winner thanks to his volume and precision.
However, Degli has the juice to put him away all at once, while Moran needs to be perfect for 15 minutes, which is hard to see happening for the 30-year-old veteran. I'm playing Degli by knockout at -120, risking 0.6u to win half of one. If Moran has some early success and pushes this line down, I'm also jumping in on Degli live. I don't necessarily expect that to happen, but if it does, I want to take advantage of it.
Prediction: Degli by Knockout
Billy's Bet: Degli KO -120 (FanDuel) | Degli Live
Welterweight: Alvi Dasuyev (-230) vs. Jaden Ortega (+190)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:45 p.m. ET
Jaden Ortega is another young fighter who I'd like to see gain some more regional experience before fighting on the Contender Series (or in the UFC), with a 6-0 record comprised mainly of hand-picked opponents. His build-up so far has been appropriate, but a win against a fellow prospect or tough regional fighter, even a recently released UFC vet, would give me far more confidence in him.
Training with Michael Chiesa and company at Sikjitsu in Washington state, Ortega is a big, athletic southpaw who is extremely dynamic in the striking game. He loves to jump, spin, and throw other flashy techniques, with all four of his pro wins coming via some form of leg attack.
The downside to his style is defense. I never really saw him forced to grapple defensively in his regional fights, but spending so much of the fight with one (or both) feet off the ground certainly makes takedowns easier for his opponents. He's also fairly fast and loose with his striking defense, dropping his hands and relying on movement to stay out of danger. Which is fine given his athletic gifts, but scary against the right opponent.
Alvy Dasuyev might just be that opponent. The 9-0 German is the current Ares FC champion, and has fought somewhat stiffer competition despite being just 24 years old.
I have my issues with Dasuyev's approach, though. He's fairly wild as a striker, winging big shots and looking somewhat uncomfortable at close range. He clearly wants to knock people out — even though his best path to victory is typically on the ground.
When he decides to grapple, he's dominant, though, giving him a likely edge over Ortega, who hasn't been forced to grapple much in his fights thus far. The problem is I'm not sure Dasuyev will use it in time, as Ortega is dangerous on the feet and could finish him at any time. Plus, Ortega's home gym is filled with some solid grapplers, so there's a chance he's at least competitive in that realm.
The best moneyline price on Ortega is +200 via BetMGM, and I'm betting a half-unit on that, plus a quarter-unit sprinkle on Ortega via KO at +310 via BetRivers.
Prediction: Ortega via Knockout
Billy's Bet: Ortega +200 (BetMGM) | Ortega KO +310 (BetRivers)
Middleweight: Norbert Novenyi Jr. (-425) vs. Theo Haig (+330)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:15 p.m. ET
It's ironic that the UFC is bringing in Michael Venum Page protege Norbert Novenyi Jr. so soon after cutting "MVP" despite a 5-1 promotional record. It's especially strange that they're giving him a setup fight against Theo Haig, who lost last season via quick knockout to Cesary Oleksiejczuk, whom the UFC also seemed interested in promoting. But here we are.
Novenyi, like Page, is extremely exciting against lesser competition. His stance is an exact copy of Page, though he's a bigger and stronger middleweight. That comes at the cost of slightly less fast-twitch movement, but it does allow him to be considerably more powerful.
Novenyi is 10-1 with his only loss coming via majority decision to Dalton Rosta, a solid PFL/Bellator fighter who at the time was 8-1. I would've given Novenyi a draw in that fight, with him winning a dominant third round after being controlled via grappling for ten close minutes prior to that point.
One edge he has over Page is superior grappling. That comes both in the form of offense — he'll occasionally shoot, and mixes in some slick foot sweeps/trips — and defense, where he's a fast-paced scrambler who refuses to settle in bottom position. That was one of the biggest issues with Page, who was comfortable playing guard from the bottom, and thus losing rounds after getting taken down.
In theory, that still makes Haig a somewhat tough stylistic matchup, as a persistent grappler/wrestler who has won fights exclusively via submission. However, I don't see Haig as having the ability to get there against Novenyi, and his lone post-DWCS win against a 7-4 opponent didn't instill much confidence.
I also don't want to lay more than -400 on a Contender Series favorite, though. Instead, I'm taking the over 1.5 rounds prop at +210 odds via DraftKings. Like Page, Novenyi can burn extended periods without much activity, and Haig might be able to find a takedown or two to extend this fight. It's a scary prop since Novenyi could finish this at any point, but at more than two-to-one odds I'll take my chances.
Prediction: Novenyi via Decision or Late Finish
Billy's Bet: Over 1.5 Rounds +210 (DraftKings)
