Arnold Allen vs. Jean Silva Odds
| Allen Odds | +225 |
| Silva Odds | -278 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-130/+100) |
| Location | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV |
| Bout Time | 9:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 324 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 324 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Arnold Allen vs. Jean Silva prediction for UFC 324 on Saturday, January 24, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Both Arnold Allen and Jean Silva put together UFC win streaks that likely would've earned a title shot in nearly any other division, but unfortunately for both, the incredibly stacked featherweight pool kept both from getting their shot. Silva was likely one fight away prior to being finished by Diego Lopes in September, while Allen's number-one contender bid was spoiled by Max Holloway. He's been out with various injuries for the last 18 months, so we'll see if ring rust is a factor in a fight against the dangerous Silva.
Here's my Allen vs. Silva pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Allen | Silva | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 20-3 | 16-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:37 | 8:34 |
| Height | 5'8" | 5'7" |
| Weight (pounds) | 145 lbs. | 145 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 70" | 69" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 1/22/1994 | 12/27/1996 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.45 | 4.79 |
| SS Accuracy | 41% | 51% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.88 | 4.69 |
| SS Defense | 61% | 54% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.93 | 0.5 |
| TD Acc | 47% | 50% |
| TD Def | 75% | 78% |
| Submission Avg | 0.3 | 0.8 |
This featherweight fight was placed as the main card opener of the UFC's first-ever event on Paramount+ for a reason. Jean Silva is one of the promotion's most fun fighters, with all six of his UFC appearances ending inside of two rounds. While Arnold Allen's fights tend to take a bit longer, he's no stranger to a good brawl himself, with some of his decision losses coming in extremely entertaining fights.
The key question here is whether or not Allen is able to withstand the early onslaught from Silva. Given Allen's tendency to build as fights go on and Silva's lack of experience in extended fights, the longer this goes, the better for the Englishman.
Tape study on Allen is somewhat of a mixed bag in that regard. On the plus side, he's never been finished as a professional fighter, despite facing dangerous opponents like Max Holloway, Dan Hooker, and Sodiq Yusuff, among others. He is defensively sound much of the time, pressuring forward with a high guard and rolling off the punches that do get through.
On the downside, "much of the time" isn't "all of the time." The gap between those statements is plenty large enough for a striker like Jean Silva to walk through. Once Allen starts exchanging, he has a bad habit of dropping his lead hand while holding his rear hand high, opening himself up to power shots from the opponent's left side. For a southpaw, this is preferable to the inverse but still dangerous. It might not be the worst thing against Silva, though. He's an orthodox fighter, and the finishing blow in all of his UFC knockout wins has been with right-side strikes.
Those could still get through, though, or Silva could switch up the pattern and finish Allen with shots from the other side. Especially given the tightrope Allen will have to walk here in terms of range management.
Allen is at his best moving forward, while Silva has been stifled at times — particularly by Diego Lopes in his last fight — by fighters who keep him on the back foot. This is simple, in theory, to execute. However, Silva is extremely dangerous at close range, with a brutal mix of elbows and short hooks. This effect is amplified when he's the shorter man, as he is here. That means Allen needs to simultaneously advance forward while keeping distance between himself and Silva.
He's extremely well coached, with Tristar Gym founder Firas Zahabi as his chief coach, so they've undoubtedly cooked up a solid gameplan. Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth, though, so the devil is in the execution.
The alternative path to survival for Allen is to grapple. He has a clear edge in that department against Silva, but is often reticent to use it, as we saw in his fight against another dangerous striker, Giga Chikadze. I'm not factoring that too heavily into my handicap, but it's a nice ace in the hole for the underdog should he choose to play it.
Last but not least, he could survive by virtue of his granite chin, as he's never been so much as knocked down despite taking plenty of big shots. That's one department where his 18-month layoff is a positive, as he's had plenty of time to recover from those past shots.
Allen vs. Silva Pick, Prediction
In this matchup of unstoppable force and immovable object, I'm siding with the object. Arnold Allen is mostly solid defensively and has never been finished, while he also habitually does his best work in the final round of fights.
However, he could be down two rounds to nothing by the time the fight makes it that far. Rather than bet on him winning straight up, I'll take his +3.5 point spread, which simply requires him to survive 15 minutes and win at least one round. It will be a sweat through the first round or two, but a bet we can feel good about if he makes it beyond that.
Billy's Pick: Arnold Allen +3.5 +110 (DraftKings)
