The UFC makes one of its yearly trips to China this week, this time at the Shanghai Indoor Stadium as usual, not only do we have a UFC event on Saturday, but also a road to the UFC event on Friday morning, which features two UFC fights at the top of the card.
The official UFC event goes down at 3:00 a.m. ET on Saturday morning, with a 6:00 a.m. main card.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was starting to think about why markets might be wrong rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, a betting line is a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events. These markets are usually efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll look into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, making the line inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, later overruled fights, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights that are reasonably likely to see the scorecards or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC Serbia odds as of Monday and via DraftKings except where otherwise noted. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC Shanghai Predictions & Luck Ratings
Umar Nurmagomedov (-500) vs. Song Yadong (+380)
In a world without Merab Dvalishvili, there's a good chance we'd be 18 months or so into Umar Nurmagomedov's bantamweight title reign, but as it stands, he's still fighting for a second shot at the title. Nurmagomedov is undefeated in his career outside of his loss to Merab, has a positive 2.0 striking differential in the UFC, and averages more than four takedowns per 15 minutes while defending 100% of takedown attempts by fighters other than Dvalishvili.
Which is to say he's been incredibly dominant outside of his lone (to date) title fight, picking up two straight unanimous 30-27 wins since then against Deiveson Figueiredo and Mario Bautista. Yadong is coming off his own win over Bautista, but has alternated wins and losses since fighting his way to contender status.
Yadong is in this spot due to being a Chinese fighter more than a deserving test for Nurmagomedov, with the only real argument for him being any perceived home court advantage. That and his power, with Nurmagomedov being dropped twice in his last five fights.
Neither of those is compelling enough for me to take an underdog shot here, and if I were going to, it would be by knockout specifically rather than on the moneyline. I also don't have a great desire to lay -500 here, though I suspect the closing line will be a bit longer. Still, all things considered, these odds are about right.
Verdict: Fairly Valued
Xionan Yan (-155) vs. Denise Gomes (+130)
In the time between setting up my spreadsheet with moneyline odds and starting this article, the price on Denise Gomes has dropped from +140 to +130. That's despite 85% of Tapology predictions coming in on the favored Yan, suggesting that big/smart money is going towards the underdog.
It's a hard fight to handicap, with the 37-year-old Yan alternating wins and losses against top competition over her last four fights, while Gomes has won four straight against weaker competition. This is a big step up for Gomes, and will reveal a lot about her potential as a future title challenger.
Still, my initial lean was to Gomes. She's 11 years younger, and Yan hasn't fought in 16 months. There's a reasonable shot that the 37-year-old will have lost a step or two since we've last seen her, and she didn't look great in her last fight anyway.
I'm taking a stab on Gomes now before the price moves even further, with the best line via Hard Rock Bet at +140, but anything north of +130 is probably going to produce some CLV.
Verdict: Gomes Undervalued
Andre Lima (-245) vs. Namsrai Batbayar (+200)
Andre Lima is a fighter who often makes my Luck Ratings piece, due to how he won his UFC debut. He was clearly losing his fight against Igor Severino when Severino made the inexplicable decision to bite a chunk out of Lima's arm, resulting in a DQ win for Lima. It's a bit odd describing somebody biting a chunk out of you as a "lucky break," but for the sake of his MMA career, it was.
Lima then followed that up with a split decision win over Mitch Raposo before picking up two clear wins, then losing as a massive favorite to Kevin Borjas (2-4 UFC record). I'm not entirely convinced Lima is all that good, given that his two clear wins came against opponents who are 1-3 in the UFC.
On the other hand, I was extremely impressed by Batbayar in the Road to UFC tournament. He won with three straight stoppages, none taking longer than six minutes. He knocked down all three of his opponents and landed three total takedowns, showing off power and a well-rounded game. While that was a lower level of competition, I'm not sure the fighters Lima has beaten are all that much more impressive.
Plus, the line has dropped from a +245 or so opener all the way to +200, so there's some signals that he's the right side. I'm jumping on it now before it drops even further, with similar odds everywhere in the market.
Verdict: Batbayar Undervalued
