Check out my Barriault vs. Silva prediction for UFC 315 on Saturday, May 10.
Here's my Barriault vs. Silva prediction for tonight.
Marc-André Barriault vs. Bruno Silva Odds
| Barriault Odds | -162 |
| Silva Odds | +136 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 Rounds (-180/+140) |
| Location | Centre Bell | Montreal, Quebec |
| Bout Time | 6:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 315 odds via DraftKings as of Friday. Bet on UFC 315 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Marc-André Barriault vs. Bruno Silva Pick
Bruno Silva has lost four consecutive UFC bouts, six of his past seven, has openly discussed mental health concerns regarding his career, which makes Friday's weight miss all the more concerning.
"Blindado" has highlight-reel power (20 of 23 career wins by KO/TKO) and exceptional durability (never KO'ed despite going toe-to-toe with Alex Pereira), but is extremely hittable (41% striking defense), has seemingly lost a step athletically, and is losing interest in fighting mentally in recent matchups.
Marc-Andre Barriault is a high-volume point fighter who was once considered exceptionally durable. However, he has been finished in four of his five losses, including consecutive first-round knockouts against Joe Pyfer and—far more concerningly—Dustin Stoltzfus; his chin may be permanently compromised.
I'd favor Barriault on cardio and output in a longer fight (- -0.1 to -1.7 strike difference per minute; lands 5.9 vs. 4.7). He has some offensive wrestling upside, too, but Silva is the likelier finisher of the pair.
I'd consider betting Barriault up to -180 (projected -192), and also show value on the fight to go to decision (projected +123, listed +154) with the line closer to the divisional average (38%, +163 implied).
Additionally, I project correlated value on Barriault to win by decision (projected +198, listed +270) or his point spread (-3.5, +110) at plus money, which expresses his dominant decision and finishing upside together.
I do prefer Barriault's moneyline or point spread among those four bets; Silva's weight miss is another sign that he isn't taking fighting as seriously as he used to, but Barriault's chin is now a significant liability, as his early-career durability has faded—and it's difficult to imagine a low-tempo fight between these strikers.
Lastly, consider a live bet on Barriault after Round 1, in the event he gets clipped but survives; MAB should win the majority of minutes in this fight, but Santos could steal a round with a huge moment, which is why I'm less inclined to lay the 3.5 rounds.
Marc-André Barriault vs. Bruno Silva Predictions
Picks:
- Marc-Andre Barriault (-160, 0.25u) at Caesars; bet to -180
- Marc-Andre Barriault Live after Round 1
