Monetl Jackson vs. Raoni Barcelos Odds
| Jackson Odds | -180 |
| Barcelos Odds | +150 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-180/+140) |
| Location | Apex Center, Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Bout Time | 8:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC Vegas 117 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Vegas 117 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Montel Jackson vs. Raoni Barcelos prediction for UFC Vegas 117 on Saturday, April 25, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
UFC Vegas 116's main card features a bantamweight bout between Montel Jackson and Raoni Barcelos. Despite so many in this space carrying high expectations for Jackson, "Quik" has struggled to fight more than once a year since the pandemic.
Jackson still maintains a ranking spot with the organization, but it could be moving night at 135 pounds if the freshly turned 34-year-old fails to stop a resurgent Barcelos. Even if Barcelos is in the winter of his 30s, the Brazilian veteran has put together a solid four-fight winning streak since losing a competitive decision to Kyler Phillips back in 2023.
Here's my Jackson vs. Barcelos pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Jackson | Barcelos | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 15-3 | 21-5 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:46 | 13:01 |
| Height | 5'10" | 5'7" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 75" | 67" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 4/24/1992 | 5/01/1987 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.09 | 4.92 |
| SS Accuracy | 52% | 51% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 1.40 | 4.40 |
| SS Defense | 61% | 61% |
| Take Down Avg | 3.00 | 2.22 |
| TD Acc | 63% | 31% |
| TD Def | 67% | 87% |
| Submission Avg | 0.3 | 0.6 |
Both Barcelos and Jackson come from wrestling backgrounds, but each fighter has developed vastly different MMA games.
Barcelos, who came up learning jiu-jitsu along with his wrestling, operates out of an orthodox stance.
Although Barcelos shows a natural aptitude for offensive and defensive boxing alike, the Pedro Rizzo protege packs the thudding leg kicks that you'd associate with his Brazilian muay Thai stylings. In fact, Barcelos, who officially stands 3-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws, can offer consistent kicking threats regardless of the stance pairing.
Despite knockdowns serving as takedowns against previous southpaws in the octagon, Barcelos suffers no shortage of tools when it comes to taking opposition down to the canvas.
An avid chain wrestler, Barcelos is good at picking off the lead leg of his opponents in order to work toward high-crotch variations or to chain off to double-legs at a different angle. When Barcelos can settle into a dominant position, the Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt is an excellent passer and positional rider who knows how to persuade fight-ending opportunities from his opposition with punishing punches and elbows alike.
Luckily for Jackson, the former Olympic hopeful has traditionally been hard to control.
Even though Jackson's tape and stats alike show a surprising amount of falters in his defensive wrestling, the Pura Vida BJJ-trained purple belt has a freakish get-up game that makes him difficult to put away.
From smart tactics like the utilization of cross-wrist grips to create standing space to his God-given attributes of size and athleticism, Jackson has been able to stifle large swaths of the submission grappling that's come his way. And when Jackson can operate on the feet, his length and southpaw savvy make him a tricky customer to deal with.
Whether Jackson is showing cross-hook counters to sticking out an underrated southpaw jab, the 9-year pro packs serious knockout power and has the knockdown ratio to prove it. I still wish Jackson had more kicks in his arsenal, but those strikes likely won't serve him well considering the level-changing threats that are coming his way.
Jackson vs. Barcelos Pick, Prediction
The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the American fighter, listing Jackson -190 and Barcelos +155 as of this writing.
Although I'm not at all surprised to see Jackson as the favorite, I'm with the side of the market that believes that Barcelos is a live dog.
Don't get me wrong: There's a more than decent chance that we get a classic "and we learned nothing" first-round finish from Jackson, who could certainly spark out the aging Brazilian with a blinding left hand (a la Barcelos' fight with Umar Nurmagomedov).
But if Jackson can't find an early finish, then he'll be up against a more technically savvy fighter in Barcelos, who will offer superior output both on the feet and the floor. Moreover, Barcelos is a fighter who traditionally strikes well with southpaws and will also be one of the few opponents to hold equal or better wrestling accolades than the former Greco-Roman standout in Jackson.
Many of Jackson's backers get tumescent fawning over his hand size and perceived athleticism, but "Quick" has been one of my longtime canaries in a coal mine as far as fading aging long and lanky fighters who continue to cut down to lower weight classes at diminishing returns go (e.g., Andre Ewell, Brandon Royval, Sean O'Malley, etc.).
Unfortunately for Jackson, he spent the majority of his prime cutting down to a weight class that he can barely fight twice a year in. And now that Jackson is 34 years of age and facing a stylistic nightmare who thrives in the post-prime, I can't help but fade him in what seems like a clear dog or pass spot.
I won't talk any ardent Jackson supporters out of early knockout props, but I will lay out some options for Barcelos backers.
A live entry toward the end of the first frame won't get you a great price on Barcelos, but you'll be buying yourself some sadness insurance in case Jackson does catch him cold. Or, if you're looking to go the other way and juice up the line pre-flop, then I suggest the Barcelos rd 3/decision line that currently north of +200 at FanDuel.
But for my tastes, I try not to get too cute when there's a decent-sized plus money side you're passionate about, as I think Barcelos' money line is good to play till roughly the +140 mark. Tail my bet with the best current line via my playbook link here.
Dan's Picks: Raoni Barcelos +155 (BetMGM)
