On Saturday, the UFC returns to the Galaxy Arena in Macau, China, for a 13-fight card, featuring an important showdown in the bantamweight division between former flyweight champion and current No. 7 bantamweight Deiveson Figueiredo and No. 5-ranked Song Yadong.
Figueiredo is just 3-3 since moving up in weight in 2024, but those losses have come against the current champion (Petr Yan) and two former title contenders (Merab Dvalishvili and Cory Sandhagen). The Brazilian owns a 4-3-1 record in UFC main events or five-round fights, but is just 1-1-1 in bouts that have seen the championship rounds.
Song is 3-1 in his five-round contests, and, like Figueiredo, his recent losses (3-3 in his past six fights) have all come against current or former champions (Yan and Sean O'Malley) or title challengers (Sandhagen).
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC Macau Main Event on Saturday night and use those factors to bet on these bantamweights. They're expected to make their cage walks at approximately 9:45 a.m. ET (6:45 a.m. PT) on Saturday.
Check out the Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo prediction for UFC Macau on Saturday, May 30, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo Odds
| Yadong Odds | -130 |
| Figueiredo Odds | +110 |
| Over/Under | 4.5 (-145/+114) |
| Location | Galaxy Arena, Macau, China |
| Bout Time | 9:45 a.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC Macau odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Macau with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Tale of the Tape
| Yadong | Figueiredo | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 22-9-1 | 25-6-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:12 | 12:52 |
| Height | 5'8" | 5'5" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 67" | 68" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 12/2/1997 | 12/18/1987 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.42 | 2.63 |
| SS Accuracy | 43% | 53% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.94 | 3.47 |
| SS Defense | 55% | 49% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.78 | 1.61 |
| TD Acc | 39% | 35% |
| TD Def | 73% | 57% |
| Submission Avg | 0.1 | 1.2 |
Song Yadong, a natural bantamweight, is both the bigger athlete (3" taller) and a full decade younger than the 38-year-old former flyweight Deiveson Figueiredo, and as we regularly discuss, when there is that significant an age gap between UFC opponents, the younger fighter is often undervalued. In fact, when there is at least a 10-year age gap between MMA opponents, the younger fighter has won nearly 71% of the time, at average odds closer to -128 (56.1% implied), roughly 15% above the market-implied probabilities.
Moreover, Song is the superior striker by the numbers, outlanding opponents by 0.3 strikes per minute at distance, compared to a negative margin (-1.3 per minute) for Figueiredo. Additionally, Song has a higher control rate (61% to 48%) in grappling exchanges. Figueiredo is the superior jiu-jitsu practitioner and the more proactive grappler of the pair (2.3 to 0.9 takedowns per five minutes at distance; 35% vs. 39% accuracy), but Song may have advantages in strength and explosiveness that should help him deny takedowns (74%) and/or scramble up from bottom position.
Both men are exceptionally durable — they have suffered only one knockdown between them across 37 UFC fights. And their UFC stoppage losses have come from odd circumstances; Song suffered a deep facial cut against Cory Sandhagen, while Figueiredo injured his knee against Sandhagen and also gassed out (and was submitted) following a bad weight cut in his second loss to Brandon Moreno.
I'm expecting a close and relatively competitive fight between these bantamweights — at least closer than the moneyline odds suggest — but Song's youth and superior output make him a comfortable favorite in this spot; late-career Figueiredo doesn't carry enough power or offer up enough combination-punching volume at 135 pounds to keep up with the best fighters in the division.
Despite the age gap, I'd actually expect Figueiredo to find more success later on in this fight as opposed to early, and for that reason, you can look to live bet him anytime after Round 2. If Song doesn't finish within the first two rounds, I'd both expect this fight to see the scorecards and for it to look more competitive the longer it goes.
Yadong vs. Figueiredo Pick, Prediction
I projected Song Yadong as a near 83% favorite (projected -598) in this matchup, and as a result, I don't see value on either side of the pre-fight moneyline.
As I mentioned above, I'd anticipate that you can find a better price on Figueiredo in the live market than you will pre-fight. I would consider adding the underdog at some point after Round 2, with the best entry point potentially coming during or after Round 3.
I do expect this fight to reach a decision and need the judges more frequently than the odds suggest, setting that prop at roughly 54% (projected -118), compared to plus-money listed odds and a five-round divisional average of nearly 65% (-185 implied odds). Bet the fight to go all 25 minutes or reach a decision to -110.
Lastly, I project a correlated edge on Song Yadong to win by decision (projected +118, listed +155), which you can take down to +130; still, I'd prefer the goes-to-decision prop, considering the minimal price discrepancy.
Sean's Picks: Fight Goes to Decision +110 (HardRock) | Deiveison Figueiredo Live Anytime after Round 2
