Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Derrick Lewis Odds
| Cortes-Acosta Odds | -325 |
| Lewis Odds | +260 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-145/+114) |
| Location | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV |
| Bout Time | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 324 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 324 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Derrick Lewis prediction for UFC 324 on Saturday, January 24, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
After five fights in 2025, Waldo Cortes-Acosta, the busiest man in the heavyweight division, is getting right back to work on the first card of the year. He's taking on his first top-ten opponent in fan-favorite Derrick Lewis, the UFC record holder for knockout victories, who has logged just 35 seconds of cage time in the past 20 months. Is the now 40-year-old Lewis serving as a stepping stone for the up-and-coming Cortes-Acosta, or does the Black Beast have a few more highlights left in him?
Here's my Cortes-Acosta vs. Lewis pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Cortes-Acosta | Lewis | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 16-2 | 29-12 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:34 | 8:52 |
| Height | 6'4" | 6'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 260 lbs. | 260 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 78" | 79" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 10/3/1991 | 2/7/1985 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.55 | 2.51 |
| SS Accuracy | 48% | 50% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.53 | 2.49 |
| SS Defense | 55% | 40% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.35 | 0.56 |
| TD Acc | 50% | 26% |
| TD Def | 72% | 52% |
| Submission Avg | 0.1 | 0 |
As I lamented to my UFC Betting Preview Podcast co-host Sean Zerillo, writing about Derrick Lewis from a technical standpoint is a difficult task.
It's no accident that he holds the record for the most knockouts in UFC history. Lewis comes with a simple game plan: throw right hands at his opponent's head as hard as possible until they fall down. That's not just Plan A for Lewis, it's also plans B through Z.
Sure, he'll mix in the occasional flying knee, awkward head kick, or, more recently, even some takedowns, but those primarily serve as distractions for his real goal. His defensive grappling is similarly simple: try not to get taken down, and when you do, just stand up. Almost none of what he does on the ground is what you would teach a wrestler or BJJ player — though there's an argument to be made that he is actually one of the early innovators of what's now known as Octopus guard in BJJ — but due to his size, strength, and explosiveness, it works for him.
Not that I expect grappling to be a significant factor in his fight with "Salsa Boy." The former MiLB pitcher has just three takedowns in his 11-fight UFC career, all of which came in his matchup against Taekwondo practitioner Robelis Despaigne. Outside of that fight, he's officially attempted just two other takedowns.
Until recently, I would've classified Salsa Boy as a high-volume, low-damage striker. However, he's found his stride in terms of power, knocking out three opponents in 2025. While he still has nowhere near the one-punch power of Lewis, he lands more than double the strikes per 15 minutes and has found the right combination of volume and impact to finish with flurries.
Therefore, most of this fight will consist of Lewis trying to set up single shots, while Cortes-Acosta wears him down with volume. Cortes-Acosta doesn't throw to the body much, but he's become an adept calf kicker, which could limit the movement (and power) of Lewis if the fight extends. On the flipside, the best counter to a leg kick is a right hand, so if Cortes-Acosta gets careless at all with his defense, it could be the perfect opportunity for Lewis to find the big shot he's looking for.
The other X factor here is the motivation and health of Lewis. By his own admission, he's often turned up to fights at less than 100%, which explains some of the uglier losses on his record. He's allegedly in "the best shape of his career" heading into this one, though that's a story we've heard many times before. At the very least, his infrequent bookings over the last few years have probably preserved his health, though, which is another good sign for the underdog.
Cortes-Acosta vs. Lewis Pick, Prediction
While Cortes-Acosta's busy 2025 turned him into a contender in the UFC heavyweight division, you have to wonder if it's come at a cost. He didn't take a ton of damage in any of the fights — save the TKO loss that was overturned on the fly against Ante Delija — but he's still gone through six training camps in the past ten months, and given how close he's weighed in to the heavyweight limit, at least a few weight cuts as well.
That might be sustainable against fighters over whom you have a clear athleticism or size edge, like most of his recent opposition. Derrick Lewis doesn't fit into either of those categories, and he's (seemingly) motivated to put on a solid performance this time.
We've looked back with the benefit of hindsight on a number of fighters who fought as frequently as Salsa Boy and decided that it contributed to their downfall (recent examples include Alex Pereira and Merab Dvalishivili). This time, I'm getting in front of it, and picking Lewis to halt Cortes-Acosta's momentum.
Plus, if I'm going to get burned by an out-of-shape or unmotivated Lewis, I'd much rather do it at big plus money than when he's favored. I'll take Lewis by knockout at +380 via DraftKings.
Billy's Picks: Derrick Lewis by KO/TKO +380 (DraftKings)
