NASCAR iRacing at Dover Odds, Pick: The Mispriced Finish Line 150 Driver Matchup Bet

After pack racing at virtual Talladega Superspeedway last weekend, the NASCAR iRacing Pro Invitational Series will take on Dover International Speedway for Sunday's Finish Line 150 (1 p.m. ET on FOX, FS1 and FOX Sports app).

Sportsbooks are taking full advantage of what is expected to be the second-to-last Pro Invitational Series race by posting futures, head-to-head driver matchups and props.

Not only am I targeting a couple of futures for Sunday's race, but I'm also betting one matchup that has the wrong driver favored due to a misleading result last weekend.

NASCAR iRacing at Dover Odds, Betting Pick

Odds as of Saturday at 7:30 a.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

Brad Keselowski (-112) over Kevin Harvick

Keselowski is taking iRacing seriously and has put in plenty of work to get better, and it has shown.

Brad raced his way into the top five at Richmond and had arguably a top-three car, then backed that up by tying for the most laps led (11) last week at Talladega.

Meanwhile, Kevin Harvick is very new to iRacing, finishing 29th at Richmond in his Pro Invitational Series debut and 12th last week at Talladega. Harvick finishing 12th, compared to Keselowski's 19th, indicates Kevin was better in that race … and that's exactly the mistake oddsmakers are making.

Keselowski was by far the better driver, evidenced by his 11 laps led. Pack racing is unpredictable and resulted in a worse finish for Kez than his actual performance and a better finish for Harvick since he simply missed wrecks to finish 12th.

And this week's race at Dover won't look much like Talladega anyway. I'm expecting these two drivers to resemble their Richmond-selves much more strongly than what we saw last week.

And based on that, Keselowski should easily be the favorite in this matchup, not Harvick. There's value with Keselowski up to -125.

The Bet: Keselowski (-112) over Kevin Harvick [Bet now at DraftKings. NJ, CO and WV only.]