The 68th running of the "Great American Race" — the Daytona 500 — kicks off the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season.
Notably, the start time for the race has been moved up an hour to 1:30 p.m. ET on FOX thanks to a potential band of rain that could hit according to the latest Daytona 500 weather report.
Daytona International Speedway is a 2.5-mile, steeply-banked track where NASCAR has set engine and aerodynamics rules to create what we call "pack racing" thanks to limiting the cars' top speed plus the enormous effect of the draft.
As a result, typically all 41 cars can run in a big pack together, and one mistake can wipe out several cars, even more than half the field on occasion.
That makes betting the Daytona 500 a precarious effort, as long-shot winners are common, chaos reigns supreme and nearly any car can beat any other car thanks to the equalizing effect of the draft.
Predicting the exact results of the Daytona 500 is a fool's errand, but we can model each driver's expected major incident rate and his finishing position distribution when he does avoid a major incident.
By combining those effects, we can effectively forecast each driver's range of outcomes to find value in the betting markets.
My model has several value bets in various markets for Sunday's 68th running of the "Great American Race," so my Daytona 500 predictions might be a doozy and if it's all too much for you, just pick and choose from your favorites below.
One thing to remember, the win-loss record on these bets is going to look pretty bad. That's because as soon as I bet two drivers to win, I'm guaranteed to have a loser.
With six bets to win the race, the best I can go is 1-5 on those bets. However, all those bets are at odds at least 18-1 or longer, so if any of the six hit it's a profitable result.
This applies to several markets and I've made sure to pick long enough Daytona 500 odds to ensure a profit in that market as long as one of those drivers wins. As a result, there's a ton of bets listed here, so be smart with your bankroll, only sprinkle the long shots and hope you survive the chaos for a profitable day.
With that said, let's dive into my Daytona 500 predictions.
Daytona 500 Predictions
Outright Winners
Austin Cindric (+1800 at DraftKings)
Cindric has won twice in 25 starts at drafting tracks (Daytona, Talladega and Atlanta), with both wins coming at the bigger drafting tracks of Daytona and Talladega, giving him a 2-for-17 record at the big superspeedways, which includes a win in this very race in his rookie season of 2022.
The fifth-year driver for Team Penske ranks third in my model's win probability at 5.95% to win, making his fair odds +1580 to pick up his second Daytona 500 win.
Ryan Preece (+2500 at FanDuel)
Preece is an underrated superspeedway driver who, over each driver's last eight clean drafting track races (key here, as he's been involved in some huge wrecks at these tracks) ranks as follows:
- 6th in Driver Rating
- 8th in Average Running Position
- 9th in percentage of laps run inside the top 15
That's good enough to put his fair odds just shy of 22-1 in my model, making the RFK Racing driver a value bet at 25-1.
Bubba Wallace (+2500 at FanDuel)
Like Preece, Wallace is near the top of the list in several categories that tend to lead toward more upside finishes. Wallace has also said his car has felt as good as it ever has at Daytona, and he's extremely comfortable and confident heading into the race.
The 23XI Racing driver has the second-lowest projected DNF rate based off his superspeedway attributes and equipment, which should keep him in contention for the win a bit more than other mid-upper-tier favorites.
Wallace has three top-five finishes in eight starts in this race, including two runner-up finishes.
Add on another runner up and a fifth-place finish in the summer Daytona race and that's five finishes within striking distance of a win in 17 starts.
If he avoids a major problem, the odds are strong he'll be in contention for his second Crown Jewel win, to go along with the Brickyard 400 victory he scored last season.
My model has fair value on Bubba at +2230, so if you're more of the "pick among the favorites" kind, I do like betting him at 25-1.
Chris Buescher (+2800 at DraftKings)
Another RFK Racing driver makes the list, and it should be no surprise given RFK Racing has been extremely strong at superspeedways in the Next Gen era (since 2022).
Buescher has a Daytona win — in the summer race — and is looking to add the biggest win of his career to his resume by taking home the Daytona 500.
My model has Buescher at +2220 as fair value, so 28-1 is a wonderful price.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+4000 at DraftKings)
This is the ultimate keep-it-simple-stupid bet. I see Ricky at Daytona longer than 30-1, I bet Ricky at Daytona.
Stenhouse won the 2023 Daytona 500, has four wins at the two big superspeedways in 52 starts — a 1-in-13 rate. He's an uber-aggressive driver that will either put it on the wrecker or have a great shot at taking the checkers.
My model has fair value on Stenhouse at +3730, but he's always a hard one to model given the dichotomy between his performances elsewhere where he averages in the bottom half of the 20's in running position compared to the big superspeedways where he has an almost un-modelable knack for the front.
I like this bet more than my model does, and I'd personally play him down to 33-1.
Noah Gragson (+9000 at DraftKings)
I'm both shocked and not shocked at the 90-1 number DraftKings is hanging on Gragson.
On one hand, his one hand in the window opening got his qualifying time disallowed, and he didn't make up much ground in his Duel qualifying race, leaving him starting 25th.
On the other hand, Gragson's superspeedway stats are solid enough, as he ranks 22nd or better in all the major categories I look at over each driver's last eight incident-free drafting track races.
Normally, midpack stats would put you in the 30-60 range on the odds board, so 90-1 is quite generous.
My model thinks he should be in that midpack range, setting his fair odds at +4330.
I agree with my model.
Gragson has come close to multiple superspeedway wins before, with three top-five finishes in 14 big superspeedway starts.
That also doesn't include a near-win while leading the field to green in overtime at Talladega in 2023, where ultimately he and Ross Chastain wrecked while battling for the win.
Finishing Position Markets
Top 5: Gragson (+1300 at FanDuel), Zane Smith (+1600 at FanDuel), Corey Heim (+1700 at FanDuel)
I have all three of these drivers north of 10% to finish inside the top five, with Gragson the best chance at 13.4%, equating to around +750 as fair value.
As I noted above, Gragson has three top-five finishes at big superspeedways in 14 starts for a 21.4% rate.
At 13-1, he'd need to finish top five just 7.1% of the time to break even in the long run.
Smith and Heim are Truck Series champions who have performed well at drafting tracks in the trucks, are each in solid superspeedway equipment and are just waiting on that big breakthrough in Cup.
Top 10: Gragson (+470 at FanDuel), Z. Smith (+460 at FanDuel), Cody Ware (+700 at FanDuel), Riley Herbst (+800 at Bet365)
Gragson and Smith project just north of 25% each, so both are fine to around +300.
Ware and Herbst are just priced too long for drivers in respectable equipment after Ware's upgrade from Ford to Chevy with the new technical alliance with Richard Childress Racing (RCR) at chaotic superspeedway races.
Herbst has two top-10 finishes in nine big superspeedway starts, while Ware has two top-10 finishes in his last six Daytona starts, which are the more chaotic of the big superspeedway races.
I have Herbst at 14.4% (around +600 fair) and Ware at 15.0% (around +570 fair) to finish inside the top 10.
Manufacturer Markets
Top Ford: Todd Gilliland (+2000 at FanDuel), Gragson (+3000 at DraftKings)
Gragson I have modeled at 7.4%, making around +1250 fair value.
Gilliland is an aggressive superspeedway driver who's led multiple laps in six of his last 12 drafting track races.
As a teammate to Gragson and Smith at Front Row Motorsports, their technical alliance with Team Penske has seen this team perform strongly at these tracks.
Gilliland finished second at the most recent superspeedway race at Talladega in the playoffs last year. He was the top Ford finisher in that race.
I have fair odds at +1080 for him, so I love 20-1.
Top Chevy: Stenhouse (+1800 at FanDuel), Ross Chastain (+1800 at DraftKings), Cole Custer (+3500 at BetMGM), Ty Dillon (+4000 at DraftKings), Cody Ware (+8000 at FanDuel)
Chevrolet cars make up 19 of the 41 cars entered into the Daytona 500.
If each Chevy had an equal chance of finishing as the top bowtie, that'd equate to +1800 as fair odds.
And at such a chaotic race, where more than 40% of the cars finish off the lead lap, only around 11-12 Chevys on average (sometimes less, sometimes more) should be expected to have a shot at top honors at the end of the race.
That means getting odds like 18-1 on an above average superspeedway, and overall driver, like Chastain is nice value. I have fair odds on him at +1275.
Similarly for Stenhouse who is a superspeedway ace, I have fair at +1340.
The long shots here are just too long for a 19-car contest where the draft equalizes so much.
Custer has two-straight top-five finishes at big superspeedways — not among Chevys, but overall — and was in contention for the win in last year's Daytona 500.
My model likes Custer to +2920.
In fact, Action Network colleague PJ Walsh is betting Custer to win the Daytona 500 outright as well.
Ty Dillon is a staple bet for me. I think I bet his top Chevy honors every year at 40-1, and nearly hit in 2022 with a brutal beat at the line.
Ware, as I mentioned above, now moves into a technical alliance with RCR and has finishes of fourth and sixth in two of his last five Daytona starts.
Either of those finishes would have taken top Chevy honors in the 2022 race where Chase Elliott pipped Dillon at the line for 10th place as the top Chevy.
It sounds crazy with Ware, but it could happen.
I make fair odds on Dillon at +2855 and Ware at +4600.
Top Toyota: Wallace (+700 at DraftKings), Tyler Reddick (+1100 at DraftKings), Erik Jones (+1300 at DraftKings)
Wallace I have fair value at +570.
For Reddick and Jones, these prices are just too long for average to above-average superspeedway drivers.
With 11 Toyotas in the field, if each one had equal odds to finish as the first among their group, they'd all be +1000 as fair.
Jones and Reddick each have a superspeedway win and have come close multiple other times. Jones was the top Toyota this past summer at Daytona, while Reddick was top Toyota in this very race last year.
I have fair odds on Reddick at +675 and Jones at +1085.
Driver Head-to-Head Matchups
My motto on these is also keep it simple, stupid.
For head-to-head matchups at chaotic drafting races, any two drivers of relatively equal skill and equipment should be no longer than around +125 to beat the other.
Thankfully, bet365 is offering several such matchups at odds longer than that.
- Christopher Bell (+145) over Austin Cindric
- Chris Buescher (+165) over Kyle Busch
- Brad Keselowski (+165) over Denny Hamlin
- William Byron (+135) over Ryan Blaney
- Tyler Reddick (+130) over Bubba Wallace
Thanks to the plus-money odds, just hitting two of these five means a one unit bet on each means, at worst, a loss of 0.35 units, and it's even possible to break even or profit on only two wins with a +165 and a +135 or longer hit.
And of course, there's a good chance to hit three or more.
My model actually makes Keselowski favored over Hamlin and Buescher favored over Busch, while the others are slight underdogs in their respective matchups.
So if you wanted to bet just two of these, those would be the two.
