After a successful Daytona 500 where I returned nearly 10 units of profit thanks to some big hits from my Daytona 500 writeup, it's time to turn our attention to the Autotrader 400 at EchoPark Speedway, formerly known as Atlanta Motor Speedway.
EchoPark is a 1.5-mile drafting track, and while it has similarities to Daytona with the draft, it does tend to produce slightly more predictable results. The emphasis, though, is slightly.
At Daytona, my model gave the top drivers a win percentage in the low 6% range. Here at EchoPark, it has the top driver at about 10% to win. Still, drafting tracks are inherently random and produce high incident rates for drivers to crash out. My model ranges from a 28% incident rate for the top drivers to 42% for the worst, averaging just over 32%.
That means once again, we'll typically be looking at long shots thanks to the randomness and high incident rate.
Here's what my model is showing for this week, where I offer my picks and predictions for the Autotrader 400.
Autotrader 400 Betting Predictions
*Odds as of Saturday evening
Austin Cindric
Cindric didn't have a strong Daytona, but 20-1 is just too long at theScore.
Cindric is a part of that Penske trio that's dominated drafting track racing in the NextGen Era, and with two wins at drafting tracks plus a third and fourth at this very track, my model makes him a clear value.
Even 18-1 at bet365 or BetRivers is strong value, and I'm showing value on him at nearly every sportsbook, as my model gives him +1230 as fair odds to win at EchoPark this weekend. I'd bet this to +1600 to leave wiggle room for model error, especially early in the season.
I'll also take his top-3 finish at +600 at theScore and bet365, which my model has fair at +442 and I'd play to 5-1.
The Bet: Austin Cindric to Win, Top-3 Finish (+2000 at theScore, +600 at theScore or bet365) — Bet to: +1600 and +500 respectively
Chris Buescher
Buescher finished seventh at Daytona and ran strong all day, ranking top three in percentage of laps run inside the top 15, driver rating, and average running position.
Buescher hasn't cracked the podium yet since the 2022 reconfiguration of EchoPark Speedway into a drafting track, but it's only a matter of time. My model makes him +670 for a podium finish, meaning he's playable at a few sportsbooks.
Caesars is hanging +750 while bet365 and theScore have +700 at the time of this writing.
Additionally, I'm showing outright value on him at 25-1 at theScore and DraftKings, as well as 22-1 at bet365. My model has his outright odds at +1960 as fair value.
The Bets: Chris Buescher to Win, Top-3 Finish (+2500 at theScore, +750 at Caesars) — Bet to: +2200 and +700
Noah Gragson
This is my biggest value bet on the board. Gragson just finished 11th at Daytona and has had some absolutely garbage luck at EchoPark, having a major incident in six of eight starts since it reconfigured to a drafting track before the 2022 season.
But as I mentioned ahead of Daytona, Gragson's drafting tracks stats are solid enough, ranking 22nd or better in all the major categories I look at over each driver's last eight incident-free drafting track races.
At a (slightly) more predictable drafting track like EchoPark, his chances for a top-10 finish aren't just north of the 25% mark he had at Daytona, which is far more chaotic. Instead, my model has him at a shade over 20%, making +390 as fair value, and that's despite pegging him among the top five projected incident rates.
If he avoids a major incident here, he should finish inside the top 10 close to 32% of the time.
I'd bet this down to +400 and feel fine about it.
The Bet: Noah Gragson Top-10 Finish (+550 at FanDuel) — Bet to: +400
