NBA Expert Picks, Odds for Tuesday: 3 Best Bets For Knicks vs. Jazz, Nets vs. Kings (November 15)
Dustin Satloff/Getty Images. Pictured: Jalen Brunson #11 of the New York Knicks.
- There are just five games on Tuesday's slate, but they each have a high level of interest.
- Our NBA betting experts are focused on two of those games: Knicks vs. Jazz and Nets vs. Kings and have three bets in those matchups.
- Check out their in-depth analysis and picks below.
Our NBA analysts see value in one of those games for their expert picks tonight, along with another New York team in action out West. You can find their best bets for Tuesday night below.
NBA Odds & Picks
New York Knicks vs. Utah Jazz
Brandon Anderson: The Jazz continue to win games with math.
Utah lost a pair of weekend games out East to fall out of the 1-seed, but I don't expect the Jazz to go anywhere just yet. As I wrote about the Jazz after their hot start, Utah is winning games with big math advantages in 3-point volume and by turning opponents over and pounding the offensive glass.
That means Utah's matchups come in the numbers, and it gives them a particular advantage against teams that are weak in those three areas — teams like the Knicks.
New York ranks in the bottom half of the league in 3s made, in part because New York ranks second to last in 3-point percentage at 32.5%. The Knicks also allow 39.7 3-point attempts per game, the most in the entire NBA.
Utah still ranks top-four in both 3-point attempts and limiting opponent attempts, so they should have a big advantage beyond the arc. The Knicks also rank bottom 10 in defensive rebounding rate, so Utah's offensive rebounding advantage should help there too.
All that math means more chances and chances that are worth more points. Utah is 6-0 both ATS and SU against the seven teams I noted in my article as vulnerable to Utah's math, with the Jazz covering by an average of 11.6 PPG.
This is the first time the Jazz will be favored in one of those games, but it's not a high line and that also means Utah has won outright as an underdog in all the other matchups. Being at home in the Utah altitude never hurts either.
New York has lost six of its last nine, all by double digits. Utah's math wasn't in its favor over the weekend, but I like the matchup here. I'll take the Jazz to win and cover.
New York Knicks vs. Utah Jazz
Chris Baker: Jalen Brunson has hit the over on this line in seven of his thirteen games (53.8%) this season. If you look just at the six games against teams that rank top-15 in Pace, he has hit the over in four of those games. This is a terrific matchup for him as the Jazz rank 14th in Pace and do a good job of limiting opponent 3-pointers where they rank first in 3-point attempt rate (30.8%).
Utah is clearly making a conscious effort to limit shots from deep, but that leaves them susceptible in the midrange and at the rim where they rank 23rd and 26th midrange and rim attempt rate respectively on defense.
This bodes well for Brunson as he obviously thrives in the midrange area. He should see a steady-dose of Jordan Clarkson and Mike Conley in this one, but those are exactly the type of guards Brunson loves to attack.
His eyes light up when he sees smaller guards matched up on him as he knows he can pretty much get to any spot he wants on the court with his footwork and strength. The Jazz have struggled against point guards this year as they rank 27th in points per game allowed to point guards thus far.
Utah has no elite guard defenders and they don’t really have rim protectors so I expect Brunson to generate efficient looks for himself consistently. Trust Brunson to reach 20 points on Tuesday night.
Brooklyn Nets vs. Sacramento Kings
Kenny Ducey: The Nets are in an excellent matchup on Tuesday in Sacramento.
As a team that scores just 31.3% of its points from beyond the arc and has been one of the better units in the NBA at scoring inside the perimeter, they will have a lot of fun getting at this Kings defense. The Kings own the third-worst field goal percentage on contested looks inside of 10 feet (63%) and in general rank fourth in efficiency rating.
Brooklyn’s been getting better on the offensive end with an Offensive Rating north of 112 in two of its last three games and has been leaning upon Nic Claxton a bit more inside in the past week.
Sacramento is not only having issues defending inside of 10 feet, but also ranks 23rd in Rebounding Rate and should have its hands full with the big man. The Kings may be on a run right now, but it has little to do with their defense.
I’m going to back Brooklyn, which ranks just outside the top 10 in offensive efficiency, to work them inside and win this game. The Nets are 3-0 against the spread in their last three as underdogs and the Kings are just 2-2 ATS this season as favorites.