Grizzlies vs. Pelicans Odds, Expert Pick & Prediction: New Orleans Has Home Edge (Tuesday, November 15)

Grizzlies vs. Pelicans Odds

The Memphis Grizzlies head to New Orleans to take on the Pelicans in what should be an exciting matchup between two young and exciting teams. The Grizzlies have taken advantage of a relatively soft schedule of late but had some impressive games in that stretch.

Can Ja Morant lead the Grizzlies to victory or will the Zion Williamson and the Pelicans defend home court?

Let's break it down.

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Grizzlies Gain One Key Player, Lose Another

The Grizzlies have a very interesting injury report. The bad news? Desmond Bane (toe) is listed as doubtful. But the good news is that Ja Morant (ankle) has been completely removed from the injury report and Jaren Jackson Jr (foot) is expected to make his season debut after undergoing offseason foot surgery.

JJJ is an excellent talent and should prove immediately impactful on both ends of the court, even in limited minutes. JJJ had a +4.5 point differential last season, and it was almost entirely on the defensive end of the floor — his ability to defend multiple positions should provide a boon to the Grizzlies 16th Ranked Adjusted Defensive Rating.

The Grizzlies have had an interesting season so far. They are 9-5 but they have just the 14th best Adjusted Net Rating. One of their issues is they have just the 18th ranked eFG% in the league, 53.9% — they rely heavily on midrange shots, especially short midrange ones. This shot profile can still be effective because they have such strong finishers in Ja Morant and Dillon Brooks, but the margin for error is thinner.

The Grizzlies will likely be without their best 3-point shooter, Desmond Bane, is doubtful for this matchup. This is not ideal considering that is the best formula for beating the Pelicans — a team that takes and makes 3s at some of the lowest rates in the league while allowing those opportunities at a high rate.

Will the Pelicans Exploit Their Shooting Advantages?

The Pelicans are on the the first game of a home and home back to back set with a matchup against the Bulls tomorrow. This may impact some of their players due to potential rest. Zion Williamson has surfaced on the injury report and is listed as questionable due to his ankle and foot.

The Pelicans have played better than their record indicates with a +4.0 Adjusted Net Rating (sixth) compared to their 7-6 record. However, they have had a few bad losses, namely to the Pacers and Lakers.

The Pelicans' strength is a relentless attack on the rim on offense coupled with limiting opponent efficiency from the 3-point line: they allow the attempts, but opponents struggle to convert.

This is similar to what the Grizzlies do; however, the Pelicans allow fewer attempts while maintaining a better allowed 3-point percentage, per Cleaning the Glass. The players who should be able to take advantage of the Grizzlies defense are CJ McCollum and Trey Murphy, who take 6.6 and 5.5 3s per game respectively.

Grizzlies-Pelicans Pick

These two teams are similar in that they prefer to attack the rim and get into the paint on the offensive end of the floor while employing centers that are not adept at stretching the floor. It presents an interesting matchup of two teams with similar profiles.

While JJJ is returning, the likely loss of Desmond Bane as a floor spacer will impact the Grizzlies' offense and allow the Pelicans to sell out defending the paint. Even if Zion cannot play, I like the Pelicans here due to their depth and the fact that their best 3-point shooters would all remain active.

The Pelicans are the better team despite the slightly worse record, and I'll lay the points with the home favorite — I bet them at -2 — up to -3.5.

Pick: Pelicans -2 (Play Up to -3.5)