Lakers vs. Mavericks Odds & Picks: Spread, Total, Player Prop & More Bets for Christmas Day Matchup
Los Angeles Lakers vs Dallas Mavericks Odds
-110o / -110u
-110o / -110u
By Joe Dellera
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At the time of this writing, the spread is set at Mavericks -8.5, which is simply too many points.
Yeah, I know that’s such a ridiculous phrase, but this is why it matters. The Mavericks have won 17 games this season, but just five of them have come by double digits. They are one of the worst teams against the spread, with a record of just 11-20-2 and 8-17-1 ATS as a favorite.
The Lakers have not been great ATS either, but that’s largely because people overvalue teams with LeBron, and I think that’s counterbalanced by Luka in this spot.
The Lakers should be able to keep this close, and it’s helpful to them that the Mavericks do not get out in transition often. They are a decent rebounding team even without Davis, and they should be able to cut down on extra possessions for the Mavericks.
Additionally, the Mavericks’ defense is weak on the interior, and with LeBron at the helm, this team should look to find easy layups while pushing in transition.
With LeBron on the floor and AD out, the Lakers get out in transition at a higher rate, especially off rebounds. This is an edge against a relatively weak Dallas transition defense.
The Mavericks do not win big and games oftentimes stay close because they do not have the firepower outside of Luka to blow teams out.
Lakers vs. Mavericks NBA Player Props & Picks
LeBron James, Over 29.5 Points (-122)
By Alex Hinton
As one of the long-standing faces of the league, LeBron James has been a fixture on Christmas. James has played on Christmas Day 16 times in his career, averaging 26.4 points in those games. This season, James is averaging 27.4 points per game and is 11th in the league in scoring.
Over his last 10 games, James has scored 30 points six times and finished with 28 and 29 in two other games. However, he has really come on in the last six games with six consecutive 30-point game, averaging 32.6 points per game in that span. The last three games have come without Anthony Davis, who remains out indefinitely.
Without Davis, the burden falls more on James to score, and his volume goes up. He has taken over 20 shots in each of his last six games and in nine of 10 games this month. He has remained efficient, however, shooting 52.6% from the field on 23 attempts per game in December.
The Mavericks are sixth in the league in scoring defense, but that has a lot to do with their pace, which is 29th in the league. The Lakers, on the other hand, play at the fastest pace in the league.
Dallas ranks 23rd in field goal percentage and is 29th defending small forwards according to props.cash. Dallas will be without forward Dorian Finney-Smith, the team’s best perimeter defender, once again, which will make it tough to slow down James.
The stage is for James to have another big performance on Christmas.
NBA First Basket Prop Odds & Pick: Christian Wood, Tim Hardaway
|Odds||Wood (+650) | Hardaway Jr. (+900)|
|Time||2:30 p.m. ET|
The Los Angeles Lakers meet the Dallas Mavericks in the second matchup of the day. Thomas Bryant (50% opening-tip win rate) will likely be facing off against Christian Wood (50% opening-tip win rate) for the opening jump. Bryant was injured on Friday and is questionable for Sunday’s matchup.
I think Dallas will win the tip in this matchup. The Lakers are one of the worst teams in the league at defending centers on opening possessions. Wood has only started five games this season, but is the second-leading scorer on the Mavericks this season.
Pick: Wood/Dallas ML Parlay +850 (down to +700 — 0.6u) | Hardaway/Dallas ML Parlay +1100 (down to +850 — 0.4u)