NBA Best Bets | Picks Against Spread, Moneyline Prediction, Player Props, Odds (Thursday, April 4)

The NBA regular season continues with a solid 5-game slate this Thursday, headlined by an excellent nationally televised doubleheader on TNT as Kings vs. Knicks tips off the action with a compelling non-conference clash at 7:30 p.m. ET, and then Nuggets vs. Clippers takes center stage in the late window for a Western Conference battle at 10:00 p.m. ET.

As we preview Thursday's games, our basketball betting experts have locked in six NBA best bets for today's slate — featuring two picks against the spread, three player props, and one moneyline prediction.

Read along for our NBA best bets for Thursday, April 4.

NBA Best Bets for Thursday, April 4

By Bryan Fonseca

Given the nature of the Mavericks' center rotation, this is generally a tough one, however, Dereck Lively might be done for the regular season with a knee sprain, opening up opportunities and minutes for Gafford, who won't have to look over his shoulder.

Gafford has played in four games without Lively, going (way) over 18.5 points and rebounds in all but the last, where he had 10 and 8 — 18 — exactly (He did go over his PRA number by 0.5, though).

Additionally, we get a big bump in probability in our favor when Gafford plays 25 or more minutes, which is what he averages across his last three without Lively.

When playing 25 or more minutes in Dallas, Gafford has gone over 18.5 points + rebounds in four of six efforts, with one near miss at 18.

Lastly, he gets the Atlanta Hawks… 'nuff said. Just stay out of foul trouble.

Pick: Daniel Gafford Over 18.5 Points + Rebounds (-105)

By Andrew O'Connor-Watts

The Heat have been an excellent first half team all year at 40-32-2 ATS, per EV Analytics, but I like them in this particular spot considering they lost their previous matchup with the Sixers just a few weeks ago.

The Heat are competitive and don't take losses lightly and that's showed up in the ATS numbers. This season, the Heat are 17-10 ATS in the first half off a head-to-head loss.

Meanwhile, the Sixers eked out a win against an under-manned Thunder team in Joel Embiid's first game since his meniscus injury that's kept him out since Feb. 1.

Since last season, this has been a particularly strong let-down spot for the 76ers who are just 15-22-1 ATS in the first half off a win including 5-9 this season.

Monitor the injury report with Embiid and Tyrese Maxey questionable, but I like the Heat in this spot regardless, I just want to make sure the number correlates with who's playing.

Pick: Heat 1H -1.5 (-108)

By Scott Rickenbach

I know the Sixers have some guys questionable for this game but I would not be surprised to see every single one of them on the floor for this game.

The reason I say that is because this is a huge game in the playoff picture and, either way (even if some guys miss), I like the way the fill-ins have been playing for the Sixers also and they surge for the win here.

This is a key game because Miami is in the six-spot while Philly currently is in the eight-spot, yet the Sixers can move within a half-game of the Heat with a win here.

Of course, the Sixers would rather avoid the play-in round if possible so that six-seed is quite coveted.

There is a reason this line is priced so low on the Heat even though Embiid, Maxey and Harris are all listed as questionable for the 76ers.

Don't let the line fool you. The underdog should get the job done here. No points needed. Take Philadelphia.

Pick: 76ers ML (+125)

By Bryan Fonseca

Joel Embiid, coming back from injury, had 24 points in 29 minutes on Tuesday.

Bam Adebayo is not Chet Holmgren, though.

Embiid has gone over 26.5 points just three times in 12 games against Adebayo since he became a full-time starter late in the 2018-19 season — and in this one, he's coming off the serious meniscus injury.

That also includes the 2023 playoffs, where he had 18, 24, 17 and 20.

Bam causes Embiid to struggle like few others, if any. Embiid is questionable to play to begin with, and the pressure he'll see may turn him into more of a distributor, so I'm taking his under.

Pick: Joel Embiid Under 26.5 Points (-122)

By Andrew O'Connor-Watts

Both of these teams are fighting for every win they can find and are in contention for the same final Play-In spot. The Rockets are still three games behind the Warriors, but they've clawed their way to contention with an 11-game winning streak that ended on March 31 at the hands of Dallas, followed by a loss to Minnesota.

This game is important to both teams, but considering the Rockets lost both meetings earlier in the season, they'll be coming with extra motivation against the Warriors to avoid the season sweep.

The Warriors have gone on a tear of their own, winning their last five games, but facing the Rockets on their home court when both teams are fighting for position will be a tougher task.

The Rockets are the best homecourt team in the league at 26-11-1 ATS per EV Analytics, and off a loss at home the Rockets they're 10-6 this season.

I'll take the points with the best home cover in the league and bet to win a half-unit on the moneyline.

Pick: Rockets +4 (-110)

By Joe Dellera

The Nuggets take on the Clippers tonight and one battle to watch is on the interior between Nikola Jokic and Ivica Zubac.

Jokic has played well in this matchup against Zubac and in their last 10 head-to-head meetings, he has recorded 13+ boards in eight, while averaging 13.4 in those 10 contests.

One of the misses was a 24-minute effort in a Nuggets’ blowout where he recorded just six boards but otherwise he has played at least 32 minutes in the remaining nine games.

Jokic is averaging 12.3 rebounds per game on the season, and even though the Clippers have generally been stingy in their rebounds allowed, they have had some monster rebounding games posted against them recently, including when Sabonis went for 20 just a few days ago.

I expect Jokic to exceed 12.5 rebounds tonight.

Pick: Nikola Jokic Over 12.5 Rebounds (-110)

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