NBA Best Bets | Picks Against Spread, Player Prop Prediction, Odds (Saturday, March 30)
The NBA regular season continues with a relatively light three-game slate this Saturday. However, two of those three matchups will be nationally televised on NBA TV as Celtics vs. Pelicans takes center stage at 5:00 p.m. ET, and then Bucks vs. Hawks wraps up tonight's festivities a little bit earlier than usual at 7:30 p.m. ET.
As we preview Saturday's games, our basketball betting experts have locked in five NBA best bets for today's slate — featuring four picks against the spread and one player prop for tonight.
Read along for our NBA best bets for Saturday, March 30.
NBA Best Bets for Saturday, March 30
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 5:00 p.m. | ||
| 5:00 p.m. | ||
| 5:00 p.m. | ||
| 7:00 p.m. | ||
| 7:30 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Celtics vs. Pelicans
This profiles as a game where the Celtics would respond by smacking someone after back to back losses to the Atlanta Hawks on the road, and their injury report is mostly clean. But nah, I'm not on that.
This team isn't as bad in close games and clutch time as they were last season, but I've always said that their league-best net rating would bite them in the ass, and it's starting now.
The Pelicans have the eighth-best cover rate in the NBA as a home underdog at 6-4, and while the Celtics may very well avoid a third straight loss for the first time since last year's Eastern Conference Finals, I think the Pelicans keep this close.
We have this line projected closer to four, and I even think the Pelicans are a threat to win this game given their recent play, including a current stretch of 19-7 since January 31.
I'll go deeper on Boston's warts another time, but for now, I'm fading their road cover.
Pick: Pelicans +6.5 (-115)
Celtics vs. Pelicans
By Joe Dellera
The Celtics play the Pelicans and this is a great spot for Porzinigis as he should line up against Jonas Valanciunas to start the game at the very least.
Over his last 30 games, Porzingis has averaged 10.1 mins and eight points in the first quarter. The Celtics like to get him cooking early in the game and stress the defense by spreading the floor. Those marks are ~34% of his minutes and ~39% of his points per game over these 30 outings.
His first quarter scoring line is set at 5.5, a number he has exceeded in three straight and in 70% of his last 20. The line is simply too low in a plus matchup against Valanciunas.
I’ll back Porzingis to continue his strong starts — and considering he is averaging eight first quarter points over these last 30, I also don’t mind sprinkling on a sprint to 8+ early points at +215 (DraftKings).
Pick: Kristaps Porzingis 1Q Over 5.5 Points (+100)
Celtics vs. Pelicans
The Boston Celtics will try to regain their rhythm after losing back-to-back games for just the third time this season. But with the regular season wrapping up in a couple of weeks, there’s not a ton the Celtics need to accomplish heading into the playoffs.
After all, they’ve already clinched homecourt advantage in the East and will likely finish with the best record in the league thanks to a six-game lead over Western Conference teams.
However, I’ve felt all along that the Celtics could ill-afford any prolonged losing streaks because they’d need to avoid any doubt from creeping into their minds, given some of the recent disappointing playoff finishes.
Nonetheless, it’s difficult to prepare for these games toward the end of the regular season when there isn’t much at stake. As a result, the Celtics have looked somewhat vulnerable, with consecutive losses to the Hawks as double-digit favorites.
Next up for Boston is a trip to New Orleans to take on a Pelicans team rapidly climbing up my power ratings. New Orleans is 10-3 in its last 13 games, and much of its success stems from its defensive improvement.
In March, the Pelicans have the third-best defensive rating with a 106.8 value. When you compare their efficiency in March to their overall performance this season, they’re allowing nearly five fewer points per 100 possessions.
New Orleans is now one game behind the Clippers for the fourth seed, which could be the difference between having a homecourt advantage in the first round and starting the series on the road.
Thus, the Pelicans have all the motivation coming into this game, and you have to be concerned about the Celtics' fatigue after the Hawks forced them into overtime in the recent outing.
My model might be a bit aggressive here, but I have the Celtics pinned as 2.5-point favorites in New Orleans. With BetMGM listing the Pelicans at +6.5 / -115, that’s an offer that’s simply too good to pass up, given the value.
Pick: Pelicans +6.5 (-115)
Grizzlies vs. Magic
It has been a grating week for the Magic, coming off three competitive losses at home against playoff-bound opposition from the West. If there's ever a night to take out frustrations though, this would be it.
The Grizzlies visit the Kia Center having lost six of their seven, and their defense has totally collapsed, considering they surrendered 128 points or more in three of those games.
Only once this season have the Magic lost four straight, and that was before Christmas. Jamahl Mosley's defense is still playing very well, despite their latest three-game skid. They allowed totals of 109, 101, and 100 in their last three losses in matchups against the Kings, Warriors, and Clippers.
No need for concern in Orlando. Lay the points with the Magic.
Pick: Magic -13 (-110)
Bucks vs. Hawks
By ASA
This is a great spot to back the Bucks and fade the Hawks.
The Hawks are coming off a thrilling OT win at home over the Celtics on Thursday night and could be flat here with a shortened rotation. The Bucks meanwhile are off a pair of difficult losses to the Lakers and Pelicans.
In the win the other night over the Celtics the Hawks got a huge game from Dejonte Murray who poured in 44 points, but it took him 44 shots to get there. The Bucks have two solid perimeter defenders in Beasley and Beverly who should be able to slow down Murray here.
Milwaukee's recent loss was especially tough as they held the Pelicans to 40% shooting overall and 25% from the 3-point line, but the Pels benefitted from 34 trips to the free throw line compared to the Bucks 19.
Milwaukee is solid off a loss with a 17-9 SU record and an average plus-minus in those games of +4.5PPG.
The Bucks have a losing record against the spread as a road favorite at 12-15 ATS, but they do own a positive differential of +4.5 points per game. While Atlanta is 4-7 ATS as a home underdog this season with a negative differential of minus -3.9 points per game.
The Bucks should enjoy a shooting advantage here with the seventh-best FG% offense facing a Hawks defense that ranks 28th in opponents FG% allowing 49.4% on the season.
Milwaukee is eighth in 3PT% offense. The Hawks are 28th in 3PT% defense.
Atlanta does not shoot the ball well either, ranking 20th in team FG% while the Bucks are 11th-best in the NBA in FG% defense allowing 46.9%.
This line might be a little intimidating, but consider the Celtics were just favored by -16 points the other night. Lay it with Milwaukee.
Pick: Bucks -3.5 (-110)
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