NBA Picks Today: Expert Bets on Over/Under & Player Prop (March 13)

I'm on a total and player prop tonight in the NBA. Check out my NBA picks today below.

NBA Picks Today

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NBA unders are all the rage in 2024. Since Jan. 1, unders are 284-206-4 (58%), including a 5-1-1 mark last night. And then there’s the Magic, who have seen unders cash in eight of their last nine games.

But betting is all about buying low and selling high, and this is the bottom of the market for Magic totals. That’s not an opinion: If the current line of 205.5 holds, it would be the lowest NBA regular-season total since Feb. 9, 2022, when Thunder-Raptors closed at 205.5 in a game Toronto won 117–98, sending the game comfortably over the total.

When these teams last met on Feb. 27, they combined for only 189 points in a 108-81 Magic win. However, the Nets were on the second night of a back-to-back and missing leading scorer Cam Thomas, who is averaging 21.3 points per game on the season and 30.0 points per game since returning from a foot/ankle injury two games ago. Meanwhile, the Magic were playing their fourth game in six nights and were without leading scorer Paolo Banchero, who is averaging 22.8 on the season and 24.5 over his past six games. This time around, both teams have not played since Sunday and are expected to be at full strength.

Despite ranking fourth in Defensive Rating (111.8) and 26th in pace (97.2), only 16 of Orlando’s 65 games (24.6%) have failed to crack 208 total points. And of the Nets’ 65 games, only nine (13.8%) have landed below 208. While both of these teams’ combined scores clock in below the NBA average of 230, they are still well above this total, with the Nets averaging 225.8 combined points and the Magic averaging 220.0.

According to our Action Labs data, when the total is more than 16 points below the NBA average and the home team is favored, the over has gone 18-10 (64%) this season and 81-47-3 (63%) since 2016 – good for a fire 22.6% ROI.

Bet to: 207.5

Pick: Over 205.5 (-110)

Dosunmu has cleared 5.5 assists in only 10 of 24 starts (41.7%), but his true odds are likely even lower than that given the matchup against a Pacers defense that limits opponents to an NBA-low 29.8 3-point attempts per game, which are the most commonly assisted field goals. As a result, the Pacers are allowing the fewest assists per game to point guards (7.3) and the second-fewest assists per game to shooting guards (4.5), per Hashtag Basketball.

Dosunmu is averaging 4.5 assists in 36.4 minutes per game as a starter. According to FantasyLabs' On/Off tool, he is averaging just 3.24 assists per 36 minutes with Zach LaVine off and DeMar DeRozan, Coby White and Nikola Vucevic on.

In two prior meetings with the Pacers this season, Dosunmu recorded just three assists across 43 minutes. I’m projecting him to stay under 5.5 roughly two-thirds of the time.

Bet to: -185

Pick: Ayo Dounmu Under 5.5 Assists (-145)