NBA Player Props & Picks: Betting Value Aaron Gordon, Luka Doncic and More (November 8)
Chris Gardner/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Gordon #50 of the Denver Nuggets.
With a few big names on the shelf tonight for this NBA slate, the attention seems to go straight to their replacements. However, after looking into their matchups and prop value, I may have a surprise for you! There may be some juice that we can take if we get to the window fast enough.
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
There are some big names to go over. Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Andre Drummond, Under 12.5 Points (+100)
|76ers vs. Knicks||76ers -4.5|
|Time | TV||7 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
Joel Embiid is ruled out for tonight’s game . That will move Andre Drummond into the starting lineup for the second time this season. Drummond played 34 minutes the last time Embiid sat out and had 14 points, 15 rebounds, seven assists, one block, and five steals against the Portland Trail Blazers. A truly incredible game.
This matchup against the New York Knicks tonight is a little bit different than the Trail Blazers from a defensive standpoint. In their last meeting against the Knicks, Embiid had his worst game of the season as he finished with 14 points on only seven field goal attempts, and six rebounds. All were season lows for Embiid. He also had a season-high five turnovers. I would imagine the Knicks will stick with their same game plan they had for Embiid to Drummond.
Not only is Embiid out, but Tobias Harris is out for this game as well. I’m sure Drummond will be getting double teamed every time he puts the ball on the deck. The worst part is, Drummond is far less versatile than Embiid. He will be glued to the block, where he will meet a cast of Knicks big men who are known for their defensive presence. This certainly isn’t the Portland Trail Blazers.
This game also has an extremely low Over/Under at 213 points. Both the Knicks and 76ers rank in the bottom five in Pace this season, with the 76ers being dead last. The Knicks also have Nerlens Noel back from injury. Noel was third in the league last season in blocks with 2.2 per game. He is just another big body that the Knicks can throw Drummond’s way tonight.
With the defensive game plan on Drummond and the projected slow pace of this game, I don’t think there will be many opportunities for Drummond to get the over on 12.5 points. Granted it is not that high of a number without Harris and Embiid, but it also provides less spacing on the floor and the Knicks can hone in on stopping Drummond.
I love this Under prop on DraftKings tonight, especially getting juice and I think the number could get even higher with more people falling in love with Drummond in the DFS world tonight.
Luka Doncic, Over 7.5 Rebounds (-125)
|Mavericks vs. Pelicans||Mavericks -8.5|
|Time | TV||8:30 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
After giving you some juice with the last prop, I am going with a safer one here with Luka Doncic Over 7.5 rebounds. Doncic continues to be one of the most valuable players to his team. He leads the Mavericks this season in minutes played (34.6 per game), points (24.9), rebounds (8.3), and assists (6.9).
Spirits are riding high with Doncic right now after he hit this crazy game-winning shot against the Boston Celtics in their last game. He finished with a season-high 33 points and nine rebounds. Tonight the focus here is on the rebounding. Doncic has failed to get Over 7.5 rebounds in only three of his first nine games this season. So we’re already hitting this number at a 67% clip.
With Kristaps Porzingis in the lineup, Doncic’s numbers actually increase by quite a bit. He is averaging 2.0 more points per game, 4.4 more rebounds per game, and 1.6 more assists per game with Porzingis on the floor, despite having a lower usage rate. Doncic is averaging 10.8 rebounds per game with Porzingis on the floor in four games, compared to just 6.4 when he is off.
This matchup against the 1-9 New Orleans Pelicans will provide Doncic plenty of opportunities to stuff the stat sheet. A triple-double is firmly in play as the Mavericks are 9-point favorites at home tonight. The Pelicans rank 28th in Defensive Rating this season as they have given up 112.7 points per game. Brandon Ingram remains questionable to play tonight as he has missed the past four games, while Zion Williamson is still out for a few more weeks.
The Mavericks are 4-1 at home this season facing an injured and quite terrible Pelicans team. Doncic should have his way tonight, especially on the glass with Porzingis in the lineup. I would love if this prop got to 8 or 8.5 so we can get more value, but I will gladly take the over 7.5 rebounds on DraftKings tonight.
Aaron Gordon, Under 18.5 PTS + REB + AST (-110)
|Nuggets vs. Heat||Heat -1.5|
|Time | TV||9 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
Another player who may draw some attention in DFS tonight due to an injury is Denver Nuggets forward Aaron Gordon. Michael Porter Jr. is out for tonight with an injury, which will provide more opportunities for Gordon and the rest of the Nuggets players. However, I still don’t think Gordon can get there tonight.
This matchup against the Miami Heat is very difficult. The over/under right now is at 204.5 points. That is one of the lowest totals that I have seen all season. Both teams rank in the top four in Defensive Rating this season, while the Heat play at the third slowest Pace. The Heat also lead the league in Rebound Percentage at 55.8%. They are one of the worst matchups to face.
Despite Porter Jr. being out tonight, Gordon hasn’t had that much usage this season. Playing alongside Nikola Jokic and Will Barton definitely doesn’t help. Gordon has an 18.1% Usage Rate and is averaging 12.2 points per game, 5.8 rebounds per game, and 1.7 assists per game. Adding up those numbers will get Gordon over the 18.5 total that he needs for his prop tonight, but the matchup and slow Pace like I mentioned before has me off of him in this spot.
The last two games, Gordon has averaged just six field goal attempts as he has averaged 9.0 points per game, 2.0 rebounds per game, and 1.5 assists per game. Even with Porter Jr. only playing seven minutes last game, Gordon still couldn’t get it done and only finished with 28 minutes in a one-point victory over the Rockets. The minutes didn’t increase for Gordon without Porter Jr. and neither did the production. He just isn’t the same player he used to be.
Seeing 18.5 as a total for points, rebounds, and assists without a focal point player on the Nuggets offense not playing may be intriguing, but I’ll gladly take the Under. This matchup against the Heat and the total in this game has me taking the Under on basically every prop tonight.
I would bet this even if it got to 17.5, but I will take the 18.5 on BetMGM all day in this spot against the Heat.
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