NBA Player Props & Picks: Spencer Dinwiddie, Kevin Porter Jr. Are Saturday’s Top Bets (November 26)
Logan Riely/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Kevin Porter Jr. #3 of the Houston Rockets.
- Saturday's NBA schedule has just four games, but there are two player props showing value in two games.
- Tyler Schmidt is eyeing assists props for two combo guards: Spencer Dinwiddie and Kevin Porter Jr.
- He gives out his prop picks for those two players below.
There are only four games on the schedule today, including one afternoon game and three night games.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Spencer Dinwiddie, Over 4.5 Assists (-138)
|Time | TV||5 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The Toronto Raptors host the Dallas Mavericks in the lone afternoon game today. Despite a 1-5 road record, the Mavericks are 2.5-point favorites as the Raptors will be playing without Pascal Siakam and Scottie Barnes, while Fred VanVleet is questionable. This should be a low-scoring and tight matchup.
Luka Doncic is playing at an MVP-type level leading the Mavericks in all major categories, but it is Spencer Dinwiddie who we are looking to target in the prop market today. In his first full season with the Mavericks, Dinwiddie has started all 17 games while averaging exactly five assists per game this season.
Dinwiddie has gone over this prop line in 10 of his last 12 games, while our model has him projected for 5.5 assists. With a full assist projection over this line and having it rise throughout the morning, now is the time to get Dinwiddie at this number before it moves up. The best value right now is on FanDuel.
Without Siakam and Barnes, the Raptors are lacking perimeter defense. Through 18 games, they are allowing 26.6 assists per game, which ranks as the seventh-highest in the league. This game has a 218 total, but Dinwiddie is so consistent getting over this prop line and the value is too good not to take.
Kevin Porter Jr., Under 7.5 Assists (-135)
|Time | TV||8 p.m. ET | NBA TV|
We go from one over assist prop to one under with Kevin Porter Jr. under 7.5 assists tonight. The Rockets are 2.5-point home underdogs against the Thunder while this game has a slate-high 231.5 points. These are the two of the worst teams in the Western Conference, but the pace should be quite high.
Even though the Thunder rank 21st in defensive rating and fourth in pace, they are only allowing 24.6 assists per game, which is one of the better numbers in the league. This matchup may have more possessions than most, but both Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey are respectable defenders.
Porter Jr. has seen his assist numbers fluctuate throughout the season. There are games where he reaches double digits and others where he finishes with only three. This season, Porter Jr. is averaging 6.1 assists per game, which is well under this prop line and he has only had eight or more assists in four of his 17 games. I would gladly take this prop if it went down to 6.5 assists tonight.
Our model has Porter Jr. projected for 6.3 assists despite the great pace-up spot against the Thunder. He leads the Rockets with 12.4 potential assists, but the team only averages 21.7 assists per game, which ranks as the fourth-lowest in the league. With a league-low 43.8% shooting from the field, it is tough to see Porter Jr. converting on many of his potential assists tonight.