NBA Player Prop Forecast: Knicks-Raptors Settlement, Defensive Woes in Milwaukee

Let's ring in the New Year with a brand new addition of the Player Props Forecast! We have plenty of news to break down including the monster trade between the New York Knicks and the Toronto Raptors. Let's dive in!

NBA Player Props Betting Forecast

New York Knicks vs Toronto Raptors – the Settlement

Schedule: Jan. 20: Raptors at Knicks | Mar. 27: Knicks at Raptors

The New York Knicks and the Toronto Raptors put their legal issues aside and settled on a trade that sent OG Anunoby, Precious Achiuwa, and Malachi Flynn to New York in exchange for RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, and a second-round pick (via Detroit). You can read my thoughts and Brandon Anderson's on the move from a general future perspective here. Additionally, this move dramatically shakes up each of these rosters and will create plenty of value within the Player Props Market.

Let's start with the Knicks.

OG Anunoby immediately elevates this defense as one of the premier defensive players in the NBA. He's a nightmare matchup for wings and even some Power Forwards. From an offensive point of view, Anunoby is averaging 15.1 Points, 3.9 Rebounds, and 2.6 Assists per game and is making 2.3 3s on 6.0 attempts per game which is directly in line with his career mark of 37.5% from deep. Anunoby is particularly proficient from the corner, and makes 44% of those attempts, per Cleaning the Glass. This number has improved even more to 48.8% from the right corner over the last two seasons. This was a specific area the Knicks were looking to improve with RJ Barrett shooting just 33% from 3 point range. I'll be looking for OG's 3 point prop which has recently been set at over/under 1.5. This week, the Knicks take on the Wolves, Bulls, Sixers, and Wizards – the Wolves and Sixers both defend that shot decently well but that's because their defenses are strong overall. I would not be dissuaded from playing that 3s prop in any of those games.

Anunoby's proficiency from 3 should improve Jalen Brunson's assist rate. Barrett was shooting just 27.9% from 3 point range on Brunson's passes. Compare this to Anunoby who was shooting a combined 41.8% on 3s from Dennis Schroder, Scottie Barnes, and Pascal Siakam.

This should also open up more minutes at the shooting guard position. Donte DiVincenzo starter against the Pacers and scored a career-high 38 points on 7/11 from 3. Evan Fournier also saw minutes but the more notable player was Miles "Deuce" McBride. McBride just signed a 3-year $13 million extension with the Knicks and he's been solid when given an opportunity. His per 36 minute stats this season are 14 points, 1.8 rebounds, 3.2 assists, and 2.2 steals. It would not surprise me to see the Knicks give McBride a bit more run to see just what they have in him.

It's time to turn to the Raptors.

With Anunoby being traded, we will see how long Pascal Siakam remains in Toronto and if this is a complete rebuild being led by Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley, and RJ Barrett. The spacing with Barrett will be bad at first, but maybe returning to Canada will be helpful for him and being out of the bright lights of New York.

The most interesting aspect of the trade is Immanuel Quickley. He will be a restricted free agent at the end of the season but after moving Anunoby it's tough to imagine a scenario where Toronto does not retain him.

Quickley should immediately make an impact for the Raptors. This season he was averaging 15 points, 2.6 rebounds, and 2.5 assists in just 24 minutes per game. Those equate to 22.5 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 3.7 per 36 minutes which is the likely role he would step into playing alongside Scottie Barnes and Pascal Siakam (for now). He was even better as a Starter last season and averaged 22.6 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 5.1 assists in 38.6 minutes in 21 starts. I'd look for Quickley points props to start.

Quickley's spacing and creation should be impactful off the bat for the Raptors especially with this upcoming week having matchups against the Cavaliers, Grizzlies, Kings, and Warriors. I am not convinced that it will be detrimental to Scottie Barnes' Usage though. Quickley is a solid spot up shooter and the minutes he played alongside other ball-dominant players such as Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle were still effective for everyone. If anything, Quickley's spacing may help Barnes and Siakam with drive-and-kick assists.

Milwaukee's Defensive Woes 

Schedule: Jan. 1 vs. Pacers | Jan. 3 at Pacers | Jan. 4 at Spurs

The Bucks have struggled immensely this season on the defensive side of the ball. They have the 18th ranked Adjusted Defensive Rating and they have continually been torched by lead guards.

This week will be tough for them with two matchups against Tyrese Haliburton and the Pacers and another against Fred VanVleet and the Rockets, their only respite will be against the Spurs; however, Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson may feast in that matchup.

Let's dive in.

Haliburton has destroyed the Bucks this season and averaged 26 points, 6 rebounds, and 10.7 assists per game in 3 starts. I'd target his Points + Rebounds prop, his averages against the Bucks in both points and rebounds are upticks from his 24.6 points and 4.0 rebounds he averages on the season. He actually is averaging 2.1 fewer assists per game against the Bucks than his full-season numbers.

The Spurs are the next matchup. In their previous game on December 19th, Keldon Johnson balled out against the Bucks. He dropped 28 points with 12 rebounds but he shot well above average. Keldon's points prop was 18.5, if we get that again I'd gladly take an over.

As for Vassell, his points prop was set at 19.5, which he could have hit had he been slightly more efficient. Vassell scored 17 points on 7/18 shooting in that game. It's notable that Victor Wembanyama did not play though and his gravity may help open up some better looks for Keldon and Vassell on Thursday.

The Bucks final matchup of the week is against the Rockets. When these teams played, Fred VanVleet led the offensive attack with 22 points and 6 assists on 4/8 shooting from 3 point range. The scoring is a significant uptick from his regular season numbers of 17.4 points on 3.0/7.7 from 3. I'd look at his points and 3s prop on Saturday.