NBA Player Prop Picks Tonight | Luka Doncic Bet in Mavericks vs 76ers

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NBA Player Prop Picks Tonight | Luka Doncic Bet

It’s never a fun proposition fading the player who literally leads the NBA in combined points, rebounds, and assists (PRA). However, player prop betting isn’t always about the player, but more about the situation at hand for one specific game. And in this instance, I’m seeing plenty of value on the under.

Just looking at the raw stats, Doncic is averaging 53 PRA this season. He’s been on a tear lately, though, clearing this line in four of his last six games, which includes the 73-point (90-PRA) explosion against the Hawks.

That being said, his recent run has been mostly without Kyrie Irving, who has been battling a thumb injury. As of writing, Irving is expected back tonight, while Doncic himself is questionable to face the 76ers.

When Doncic plays alongside Irving, his PRA average dips to 48.7 per contest, In the 22 games the duo have played together this season, Doncic’s has stayed under this line at an 82% clip (18/22).

Plus, the five-time All Star has been playing crazy minutes of late – clearing 42 in each of his last four games. Between his balky ankle and Irving back in the lineup to take some pressure off of him, we could see Doncic’s minutes scaled back toward his season average of 37.6 per game.

The Sixers are very banged up themselves, as they’ll be without the reigning MVP, Joel Embiid. But even in a favorable matchup, this line is too high for Doncic tonight. I have the sixth-year pro projected at 52 PRA tonight, and would play this line down to under 54.5.

Pick: Luka Doncic Under 56.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-115 at DraftKings) | Play to 54.5

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