NBA Player Props Today: Donovan Mitchell, Austin Reaves Among Best Picks (March 12)
Photo by Eric Espada/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Donovan Mitchell.
Per usual, Sunday features a spread out NBA slate with games happening all throughout the day. These three player props are in games that start at 5 p.m. ET or later as I’ve keyed in on Cavaliers vs. Hornets and Knicks vs. Lakers.
Another unique fact about these props — featuring Donovan Mitchell, P.J. Washington and Austin Reaves — is they are all coming in with juice on their overs. Let’s dive in and finish the weekend off on a high note!
NBA Player Props & Picks
Donovan Mitchell, Under 4.5 Assists (+118)
|Time | TV||5 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
Barring an epic collapse, the Cavaliers are basically locked into a top-four seed in the Eastern Conference as they continue to play at an elite level. In his first season with the Cavaliers, newly acquired Donovan Mitchell has been a huge addition, averaging a career and team-high 27.7 points per game.
Since the All-Star break, Mitchell has been on a scoring spree. He has recorded three games with 40+ points and has a 34.3% usage rate over that eight-game span. However, accumulating assists has been his biggest drawback. During that time, he has recorded four or fewer assists in seven of those eight games.
The Cavaliers are eight-point road favorites against the Hornets. This game could get out of hand, which may lead to less playing time for Mitchell, who is playing the most minutes on the team. They also play on a back-to-back Tuesday and Wednesday so rest is important.
Our NBA Model has Mitchell projected for 3.6 assists tonight, which is nearly a full assist lower than his prop line. Getting a juiced value on Mitchell’s over provides one of the best values on the slate. The Hornets have an atrocious defense, but reaching five assists has been a difficult task for Mitchell lately.
Pick: Donovan Mitchell Under 4.5 Assists +118
P.J. Washington, Over 5.5 Rebounds (+120)
|Time | TV||5 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
Sticking with the Cavaliers vs. Hornets game, P.J. Washington’s over prop for rebounds is also looking fantastic in our NBA Model. He is projected to grab 6.3 rebounds despite his prop being 5.5. Washington has recorded seven or more rebounds in six of his last seven games, while pulling down five in his only miss.
The Hornets will likely be playing again without starting center Mark Williams (doubtful; thumb). That will pave the way for more rebounding opportunities as Williams was consistently pulling double-digit boards. Nick Richards will start at center, but Washington still sees a big rebounding boost.
The Cavaliers have one of the best frontcourts in the league, but Jarrett Allen is doubtful to play, which really helps Washington’s rebounding upside. Even with Allen, the Cavaliers rank outside the top 10 in Rebounding Percentage this season. With Allen out, they get significantly worse on the glass.
With LaMelo Ball out for the season, scoring has become a little bit of an issue for the Hornets. Washington has scored 20+ points in five of his last eight games, which provides more playing time and more opportunities for him to reach his over in rebounds as well. Great spot for Washington tonight.
Pick: P.J. Washington Over 5.5 Rebounds
Austin Reaves, Over 3.5 Assists (+130)
|Time | TV||9 p.m. ET | ESPN|
Winners of three straight, the Lakers are slowly climbing the Western Conference standings. They enter Sunday in ninth, but not too far away from reaching the top six and staying out of the play-in tournament. An impressive feat given they are winning without LeBron James.
Anthony Davis is the obvious beneficiary without James on the floor, but Austin Reaves has also been a key contributor off the bench. The second-year pro is averaging career highs in nearly every statistic. In 17 games without James this season, Reaves has averaged 14.3 points and 3.7 assists per game.
Those numbers have increased substantially as Reaves is averaging 15.5 points and 5.7 assists per game over his last six games. The assists are what have bumped up the most. Reaves has recorded four or more assists in five of his last six games and is projected to have 4.7 assists, which is well above this line.
The Knicks are one of the better defensive teams in the league, but the Lakers are still 2.5-point home favorites given how well they have played of late. With a 114-point implied team total, Reaves will have plenty of opportunities to reach this assist prop over. This is the best NBA player prop on the slate.
Pick: Austin Reaves Over 3.5 Assists
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