NBA Same Game Parlay | A +575 Bet for Wolves vs Mavericks Game 4 (Tuesday, May 28)
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Sports writers at Action Network tend to have a talent for winning bets. Well, let’s take some of their +EV bets and put them in a same-game parlay.
Each day, we have best bets from our NFL, NBA, NHL and MLB analysts who cover sides, totals and niche markets like player prop bets. As recreational bettors, we all like to occasionally indulge in our degenerate side. So, when the time comes, let’s do it responsibly and create a fun, low-stakes same-game parlay.
For today’s same-game parlay, we’ll use Game 4 of the Western Conference Final between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Dallas Mavericks on May 28, 2024:
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Game 4 Same-Game Parlay
- Luka Doncic Over 30.5 Points
- Anthony Edwards Over 39.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
- Timberwolves ML +100
Parlay Odds: +575
Luka Doncic has been electric this postseason and has led his team to a commanding 3-0 lead in the Western Conference Final vs. the Timberwolves.
Bryan Fonseca expects this trend to continue and is riding with his points prop:
“Luka Doncic is the best player in the series. He's gone over this in three straight, and the only reason he's down at 30.5 is because the books are expecting some sort of regression because the Timberwolves are apparently too good to be swept."
“He's the second-best player in the world and is playing like it in this series. If I'm going to take an over on anyone and be good with the result, it's Doncic.”
“And his efficiency isn't even ridiculous. He's shot 12-for-26, 10-for-23 and 10-for-20 in three games this series. I'm riding this one until I can’t.”
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Anthony Edwards may be the face of the Minnesota Timberwolves, but he has yet to show his full potential in the Western Conference Final.
Alex Hinton expects Edwards to at least go down swinging vs. the Mavericks in Game 4:
“I expect Edwards to take at least 20 shots, which should lead to 25 points or more. If he maintains his rebounds and assists pace, he should crack 40 points, rebounds and assists tonight after having 44 on Sunday in Game 3. He's averaging 8.3 rebounds and eight assists per game in this series.”
“If head coach Chris Finch opts to downsize tonight, Edwards will be in position for even more rebound chances. He already had 15 rebound chances in Game 1 and 17 in Game 3. Additionally, Edwards is averaging 15 potential assists in this series. While Edwards' assists have gone up, point guard Mike Conley's assists have gone down.”
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Although the Mavericks are up 3-0, the data has shown that this series has been much closer.
According to Joe Dellera, we should look to fade Dallas in this spot:
“Minnesota has a 117.6 Offensive Rating in the fourth quarter of these playoffs, per NBA Advanced Stats. In a win-or-go-home game, Minnesota has nothing to lose and some of those shooting woes should regress to the mean.”
“The Mavericks have been a bit fortunate in their shot making. They have an eFG% of 58.1% compared to an expected of 53% this series; however, much of that can be written off as having elite shot makers in both Doncic and Kyrie Irving. They can make some of those slightly -EV shots at a high enough rate to remain productive.”
“Without Dereck Lively II and a game to prep, Edwards and Towns should both have a bit easier of a time getting into the teeth of the defense.”
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