Timberwolves vs Mavericks Odds, Pick | Bet Minnesota in Game 4

Timberwolves vs Mavericks Odds, Pick | Bet Minnesota in Game 4 article feature image

Pictured: Jaden McDaniels of the Timberwolves and P.J. Washington of the Mavericks for Action Network’s odds, pick, and prediction for Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals.

Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Odds, Pick

Tuesday, May 28
8:30pm ET
Timberwolves Odds
-112o / -108u
Mavericks Odds
-112o / -108u
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

Here's everything you need to know about Timberwolves vs. Mavericks on Tuesday, May 28 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today's game.

The Mavericks took a commanding 3-0 series lead after more late-game heroics from Luka Dončić. Teams up 3-0 are 154-0 on the series, but is this series any different? Can the Timberwolves mount any resistance, or are we destined for a Celtics vs. Mavericks NBA Finals?

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Timberwolves' offense has been a major problem this series and it starts at the top. Anthony Edwards is averaging just 22 PPG on 38.6% shooting and Karl-Anthony Towns is at 15 PPG on 27.8% shooting. Towns has been so bad he has been played off the floor down the stretch of these games in favor of Naz Reid.

The offensive process has been rough for those two. Towns has made just three 3s so far despite taking 22 attempts. With the injury to Dereck Lively II, this could swing things though. Without Lively, it means extended minutes for Daniel Gafford or even some for Dwight Powell. This could open up some looks on the interior for the Wolves.

The Pace in this series has masked the efficiency. Minnesota has scored 106.7 PPG this series but they've been staked down late in games and the offense has gummed up. For the full game, Minnesota has an Offensive Rating of 114.3 but in the fourth quarter this drops precipitously to 95.5. They have scored 22, 22 and 20 points and that's really bolstered by a 5-of-12 3-point showing in Game 1 (22 points).

The offense has been abysmal down the stretch of these games. The quality of the shots is not necessarily bad either, but the misses exacerbate the problem by allowing Dallas to get out in transition. To put it in perspective, Minnesota has a 117.6 Offensive Rating in the fourth quarter of these playoffs, per NBA Advanced Stats. In a win-or-go-home game, Minnesota has nothing to lose and some of those shooting woes should regress to the mean.

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks got the unfortunate news that Lively (neck) will not be available for Game 4, but they may get back Maxi Kleber (shoulder) to bolster their big man rotation.

Lively has been a plus defensively in tandem with Gafford. They have provided Dallas with strong play from the center position while they have staggered their minutes this postseason. When Lively went down, Gafford saw a series-high 29 minutes compared to 21 in Games 1 and 2. However, that uptick in minutes did not translate to an uptick in output, as he recorded just five points and three rebounds but continued the block party with three blocks for a total of nine in three games.

The Mavericks have been a bit fortunate in their shot making. They have an eFG% of 58.1% compared to an expected of 53% this series; however, much of that can be written off as having elite shot makers in both Dončić and Kyrie Irving. They can make some of those slightly -EV shots at a high enough rate to remain productive.

Timberwolves vs. Mavericks

Betting Pick & Prediction

This series has felt close, and it is.

mavs have outscored the wolves by 13 total points across three games. for the series:

kyrie and luka: 63-128 (49.2%)
kat and ant: 37-111 (33.3%)

— Bill DiFilippo (@billdifilippo) May 27, 2024

The difference has been in the stars. Dončić and Irving are averaging 60.4 PPG compared to 37 PPG between Edwards and Towns.

Without Lively and a game to prep, Edwards and Towns should both have a bit easier of a time getting into the teeth of the defense. Edwards demonstrated this with a near triple-double with 26 points, nine rebounds and nine assists in Game 3. Edwards seems to have found his stride a bit, and if he can get rolling, then that can force Dallas to react.

I like Minnesota to extend the series, but is this the one time a team can come back from down 3-0? It's an uphill battle, but at +1400 (FanDuel) the implied odds are just 6.67%. Considering most of those 3-0 scenarios have one team that is significantly better than the other (see Boston vs. Indiana 2024), this seems different. The point margin through three games is just 13 points and a Game 7 would be in Minnesota, which if the Wolves could force it, they'd be favored.

Think of this as a chance to ladder the Wolves on the series, by grabbing them on the moneyline in Game 4, and with the series heading back to Minnesota for Game 5 there's some opportunity here to push this series further. You can grab Wolves +2.5 games (+300), you'd be getting a bit of value there with the moneyline for Game 4 being (+110), and if the books carry the Game 2 price for Minnesota (-240) a normal parlay at those odds would be (+198).

Momentum can swing in these series rapidly, and while Minnesota might not be able to complete the full comeback, this series has been too close and the Wolves are too talented to go down without a fight.

Pick: Minnesota Moneyline (+110 via DraftKings)

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