Last night produced two excellent games as the Hornets defeated the Heat in overtime while the Trail Blazers knocked off the Suns.
The Play-In rolls on tonight with Stephen Curry and Kawhi Leonard battling it out in Los Angeles. However, we will begin in Philadelphia, where the Magic and Sixers will play to see who advances and takes on the Celtics.
Let's get into my NBA Same Game Parlay Strategy Guide for Magic vs 76ers and Warriors vs Clippers tonight.
NBA Same Game Parlay Strategy Guide for Magic vs 76ers
The Angle: Maxey Leads 76ers Past Magic Without Embiid
Tyrese Maxey 25+ Points
Unlike in previous seasons, Tyrese Maxey's scoring output has not changed much with Embiid's availability. He has averaged 28.5 points in games with Embiid and 28.1 points in 35 games without him. However, he is Philadelphia's undisputed No. 1 option when Embiid is out.
Without Embiid, Maxey's usage rate increases by three percent to 31.2%, and he takes one more shot per game despite playing three fewer minutes. He has scored 29 points in three of his last four games against Orlando. That includes 43 points in a game without Embiid this season.
Like Banchero, Maxey has proven to be a big-game player. He averaged 20 points in two playoff runs as the third option behind Embiid and James Harden, and 29.8 per game in their first-round loss to the Knicks. Without Embiid, I expect another big game from Maxey in a big spot.
Pick: Tyrese Maxey 25+ Points
The Contrarian SGP: Banchero Points, 76ers Moneyline
Paolo Banchero 25+ Points
Over the last two years, there has been some debate about the fit between Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. Orlando has been playing without a true point guard for a couple of seasons and without shooting around them, with neither Banchero nor Wagner being great shooters themselves. It addressed one of those issues by trading for Desmond Bane.
However, the three of them have not been able to establish much of a footing together, as they have played just 18 games together, with Wagner on the floor for just 34 of those. Additionally, Banchero has been the better player of the two in the playoffs.
In 12 career playoff games, Banchero is averaging 28 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 4.1 assists per game. He has scored 25 points in eight of those games and 30 points in six of them. Tonight, he will need a big game to help the Magic avoid a winner-take-all game against Charlotte on Friday.
Banchero has scored 20 points in three of his last four games against the 76ers, including 32 against them in Philadelphia earlier this season. He will not have to contend with Joel Embiid down low, which should open up space for him. He is averaging 23 field goal attempts per game in the playoffs, and that volume should help him score 25 to 30 points tonight.
Pick: Paolo Banchero 25+ Points
76ers Moneyline
Orlando could have avoided the Play-In Tournament altogether if it had beaten a Celtics team resting many of its key players on Sunday.
Instead, they lost outright as a 12.5-point favorite. It has been a dysfunctional season for the Magic, with chemistry issues and several key players in and out of the lineup. They closed the season by winning seven straight games, losing five straight, and then winning seven of 10.
The inconsistency has been most evident on the defensive end, which has slipped since last season. They finished the regular season 17th in defensive rating over their past 15 games. Head coach Jamahl Mosley has bemoaned his team's lack of urgency this season, and his job status has come into question. At this point, you have to wonder how hard they are fighting for him.
Meanwhile, Philadelphia won the series 2-1 and has won six of the last 10 meetings. At this point, I trust a team led by Maxey, Paul George, and Nick Nurse more than one that may be looking forward to the end of the season, so they can hear a new voice.
Pick: 76ers Moneyline
Same Game Parlay Building Blocks (+395)
- Paolo Banchero 25+ Points
- Tyrese Maxey 25+ Points
- 76ers Moneyline
Compounding Angle (+1100)
- Paolo Banchero 30+ Points
- Tyrese Maxey 30+ Points
- 76ers Moneyline
NBA Same Game Parlay Strategy Guide for Warriors vs Clippers
The Angle: Legends Battle In Low-Scoring Game
Kawhi Leonard 25+ Points
Last year, the Clippers and Warriors met in a similar spot. Instead of the Play-In Tournament, it was the last game of the regular season.
However, a Clippers victory helped them avoid the Play-In, while the Warriors needed to defeat the Grizzlies to advance to the first round. Gone from that matchup are James Harden (trade) and Jimmy Butler (injury), so there is a good chance that one of Kawhi Leonard or Stephen Curry will be the leading scorer tonight.
Leonard has had three top-five MVP finishes in his career. He may not add another this season, but this year, for him, is up there with any of them. He averaged a career-high 27.9 points per game and has not scored fewer than 20 points since November. He has scored 25 points in 63% of his games for the season, including 14 of his last 20 entering the playoffs.
In the aforementioned regular-season finale from last year, Leonard had 33 points against the Warriors. Leonard has averaged 28.6 points over his last 71 playoff games. Several of those battles have been against the Warriors over the years, whether it was a Spur, Raptor, or now Clipper. In a must-win game, I like Leonard for 25-30 points tonight
Pick: Kawhi Leonard 25+ Points
Stephen Curry 25+ Points
Stephen Curry has averaged 26.8 points per game in 155 career playoff games. After battling a knee injury for a couple of months, Curry is gearing up for this game.
He has averaged 25.6 points over the last 10 games against the Clippers, scoring 25 points in three of the last five meetings. He scored 36 points in a losing effort against the Clippers in last April's duel. He may be on a minutes restriction tonight, but it sounds like a loose one, as Steve Kerr mentioned that he would not play 40 minutes.
Curry has the highest scoring average in Play-In Tournament history with 38 points in four games. Given the limited scoring options around him, the Warriors will need a big game from him to pull off the upset. We should see Curry hit 25 to 30 points tonight.
Pick: Stephen Curry 25+ Points
The Contrarian SGP: Prop Overs, Total Under
Under 220.5
On Sunday, the Clippers defeated the Warriors 115-110 in a game without Leonard. It went under the pre-game total of 228.5 points, but tonight's game is eight points lower. Sunday's game was trending well under as the Clippers took a 52-48 lead into halftime.
The teams then combined for 64 points in the third quarter. The Warriors also attempted 32 free throws, which is an outlier in itself. They attempt 21.1 per game. Still, the under prevailed, which has become typical in this series.
While the stakes in Sunday's game were low, the under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings. Six of them finished under 220 points. Getting back Leonard also helps the under because he is an elite defender. Additionally, the Warriors are 20th in pace while the Clippers are 27th, which should keep this game under 220 points.
Pick: Under 220.5
Same Game Parlay Building Blocks (+400)
- Kawhi Leonard 25+ Points
- Stephen Curry 25+ Points
- Under 220.5
Compounding Angle (+950)
- Kawhi Leonard 30+ Points
- Stephen Curry 30+ Points
- Under 225.5
