NBA Finals Series Tracker: Bucks Move to Favorites After Game 5 Thriller
Andrew D. Bernstein/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Khris Middleton #22 and Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 of the Milwaukee Bucks.
Odds as of Sunday and via BetMGM
|Win in 4|
|Win in 5|
|Win in 6||-200|
|Win in 7||+310||+550|
The Milwaukee Bucks pulled out an amazing road win in a Game 5 classic against the Phoenix Suns. The Bucks are now the favorites to win the NBA title at -400 in the series and are 5-point favorites entering a potential closeout Game 6.
Below we are tracking how odds are moving from throughout the series.
After Game 4: The NBA Finals is now a three-game series after the Milwaukee Bucks protected their home court in a thrilling Game 4 win over the Phoenix Suns. The Bucks have moved from +375 dogs in the series to +125 after their back-to-back wins. The odds that either the Suns or Bucks win in six games are both listed at +300.
Game 3: The Milwaukee Bucks responded with a 20-point win on their home floor in Game 3 of the NBA Finals to get back into the series against the Phoenix Suns. The Bucks went from +375 (20.17% implied odds)to +225 (29.56% implied) in the series with their odds to win in six games dropping from 12-1 to +600.
The odds that the series goes seven games is listed at +125 at BetMGM compared to +175 odds for a six-game series.
Game 2: After two strong home wins to open the series, the Suns are now -500 favorites in the series against the formidable Bucks. The Suns’ odds to win in five games dropped from +260 to +190 and their odds to sweep went from +500 to +350.
Heading back to Milwaukee, the Bucks are 4-point favorites in their home arena and have an uphill climb to get back into the series.
Game 1: The Phoenix Suns opened as -160 favorites before Game 1 of the NBA Finals and those odds went up to -200 when Milwaukee Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo was expected to miss time in the championship series.
While the odds shifted a bit once Antetokounmpo was cleared to play in the first game of the series, the Suns still had better than 61% implied odds to win the series outright and grab the franchise’s first title.
Matt Moore: Suns to win 4-2 or 4-3 (+150 BetMGM)
I don’t like the value at -190 to win the series which is where it quickly moved to at most books.The implied probabilities put that too high. But I like the Suns to win the series, and I think the series will be close based on how good the Bucks are.
Brandon Anderson: Suns -1.5 Games (+120 BetMGM)
Phoenix’s advantage at the start of the series is very strong. The Suns have a significant rest advantage — five days off vs. just two, plus a far less grueling path to this stage with a second round sweep instead of a seven-game rock fight like the Bucks.
Joe Dellera: Bucks Win Series After Trailing (+500 BetMGM)
Even if the Bucks pull off an upset in Game 1, this gives you multiple bites at the apple at better odds. I’ve seen most of the Game 1 Suns win/Bucks win the Series props at roughly +350, and this bet allows the Bucks to fall behind at any point in the series and still cash.
Kenny Ducey: Bucks Moneyline (+165 DraftKings)
The Bucks have displayed exceptional defense throughout the playoffs, and while they have a pretty crummy offensive game plan, they have better shooters and a player in Jrue Holiday who should go toe-to-toe with Chris Paul, perhaps besting him.
Austin Wang: Suns Win Game 1 and Series (-110 BetMGM)
I think the Suns will win the first game at home and make this -110 series price look like a real bargain in a few days. Here is an opportunity to pounce on a cheap Suns line early and even if you ultimately like the Bucks to win the series, my recommendation is to take advantage of this line now and get the Bucks at higher odds down the line.
NBA Finals MVP Odds
Odds as of Sunday and via BetMGM
|Player||Finals MVP Odds|
After Game 4: Giannis Antetokounmpo is now the favorite (+150) to win NBA Finals MVP with Chris Paul (+300), dropping to third on the board behind his teammate Devin Booker (+175) who had 42-points in the road loss.
After Game 3: Giannis Antetokounmpo posted a second consecutive 40-point game in the NBA Finals and has moved into second on the Finals MVP odds board at +240, jumping ahead of Devin Booker. Chris Paul’s odds moved from -135 to -165 despite the loss.
After Game 2: Devin Booker led the Suns with 31 points and seven made 3-pointers, while also dishing out six assists. Booker was tied with Giannis Antetokounmpo at +350 to win Finals MVP, but Book’s odds dipped to +200 after taking a 2-0 lead in the series. Paul was -145 ahead of Game 2 and moved to -135 while Antetokounmpo fell back to +500 despite a 40-point performance.
After Game 1: Chris Paul put on a show in his first NBA Finals game and led all scorers with 32 points to open the series. He quickly became the odds-on favorite to win the award going from +150 to -145.
Staff Finals MVP Bets
Matt Moore: Chris Paul (+160 — BetRivers)
He’s the favorite for a reason. The voters for MVP are a small panel of experienced writers and broadcasters. Some will be dedicated analysts, but most will be writers with narrative backgrounds. If all things were equal, Devin Booker likely has the better chances — but they are not equal.
Raheem Palmer: Chris Paul (+160 — BetRivers)
Who has a better narrative than Chris Paul? He is the team’s best player and if the Suns win the NBA title, Devin Booker’s scoring impact can’t overcome the totality of what Paul brings to the table.
Austin Wang: Devin Booker (+250 — BetMGM)
Given the trend of awful injuries in this postseason, I simply cannot place that much confidence Paul him winning the award. The better option is Booker — he has been a break-out star this postseason and has a higher ceiling — I think +250 is exceptional value for him to win the award.
Joe Dellera: Khris Middleton (+650 — FanDuel)
Middleton has averaged 23.8 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 6.0 assists this season in 10 games without Antetokounmpo this season. Those numbers spiked in Games 5 and 6 against the Atlanta Hawks where he averaged 29 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 7.5 assists in 43 minutes. These are strong numbers and he’s clearly capable of leading this Bucks team.
Kenny Ducey: Jrue Holiday (+1100 — BetMGM)
Simply put, Holiday has been in his bag for a couple weeks now, and I love these odds on him. There’s arguably no one coming into this series with more momentum.
Brandon Anderson: Jae Crowder (+15000 — BetMGM)
I’ll state the obvious: this is an extreme long shot. The implied odds of a 150-1 bet are 0.66% and you should not exactly bet your house on this. Don’t go crazy — but let’s have a little fun.
Suns vs. Bucks NBA Finals Schedule
- Game 1: Suns 118, Bucks 105
- Game 2: Suns 118, Bucks 108
- Game 3: Bucks 120, Suns 100
- Game 4: Bucks 109, Suns 103
- Game 5: Saturday, July 17 | 9 p.m. ET (If Nec.)
- Game 6: Tuesday, July 20 | 9 p.m. ET (If Nec.)
- Game 7: Thursday, July 22 | 9 p.m. ET (If Nec.)