Rockets vs Mavericks Pick, Prediction Tonight | Best In-Season Tournament Bet

Rockets vs Mavericks Pick, Prediction Tonight | Best In-Season Tournament Bet article feature image

Luka Doncic #77 of the Dallas Mavericks looks to pass the ball during the game against the Houston Rockets. (Photo by Logan Riely/NBAE via Getty Images)

Rockets vs. Mavericks Pick, Prediction for Tuesday, Nov. 28

Tuesday, Nov. 28
8:30 p.m. ET
NBA League Pass
Pick: Over 233

Here's everything you need to know about Rockets vs Mavericks on Tuesday, Nov. 28 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.

The Rockets will travel to Dallas to take on the Mavericks on Tuesday night. Can the Rockets continue to exceed expectations and upset the Mavericks? Or will Dallas' star power prove to be too much for Houston?

Let's get to our Rockets vs. Mavericks prediction and pick.

Rockets vs. Mavericks Prediction

Pick: Over 233

The Rockets couldn’t have asked for a better start to the season as they've gone 8-6 and have multiple wins over the defending-champion Nuggets. Houston ranks fourth in overall net rating (+7.8) and Alperen Sengun looks like an All-Star caliber player through the first 14 games. Sengun is averaging 20.2 PPG, 9.1 RPG and 5.6 APG on 56% shooting from the field. Sengun ranks ninth in the NBA in box plus-minus (6.1) and 19th in EPM. He has been terrific and seems to clearly be Houston's best player.

The 10-6 Mavericks have also impressed and rank third in adjusted offensive rating. Dallas' offense ranks second in 3-point attempt rate and fifth in 3-point accuracy (38.6%). Every single player in Dallas' primary eight-man rotation is shooting above average for their respective position.

Luka Doncic is going to come out with lots of intensity as that loss to Canada in the FIBA World Cup should still be fresh in his mind. That was a deeply emotional game for Doncic, who was constantly hacked by Dillon Brooks and didn't get any foul calls. Doncic eventually got ejected from that game and Slovenia was eliminated from the tournament.

I brought that up because I expect Doncic to be hyper focused and potentially more aggressive against Brooks. If Brooks gets in any sort of foul trouble, the Rockets will struggle to match up with Doncic. The Rockets also don't have a great perimeter defender to match up with Kyrie Irving, so expect Irving to get to his spots all night.

On the flip side of the ball, the Rockets should be able to have success against a Mavericks' defense that ranks 25th in adjusted defensive rating. The Mavericks have a poor 121.1 defensive rating with rookie Dereck Lively off the court versus a decent 114.0 defensive rating with him on, so monitor the injury report as Lively is questionable with a back injury.

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Rockets vs Mavericks Picks, Odds

Tuesday, Nov 28
8:30pm ET
Rockets Odds
-110o / -110u
Mavericks Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

With both teams rested and Lively either out or limited, I lean toward the over. The Mavericks' offense has proven to be trustworthy and I expect them to remain efficient against the Rockets. The Rockets, with three days of rest, should be able to do enough against the Mavericks to help us reach this over at 233.

Pick: Over 233

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