Timberwolves vs. Suns NBA Player Prop: Fade D’Angelo Russell in Phoenix (November 1)

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D'Angelo Russell Under 25.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists

Today’s mini four-game NBA slate is capped off with the Minnesota Timberwolves traveling to Phoenix to face the Suns. In this matchup, I’m fading D’Angelo Russell for my favorite player prop of the night.

Russell has stayed under this combined points, rebounds and assists (PRA) line in four of seven games this season, including each of the last three. He’s shooting a woeful 41% from the field, including 28% from behind the arc.

Aside from his shooting woes, the Ohio State product is seeing less frequency as the pick-and-roll ball handler (34.4% last season versus 31.5% this season). The decrease has coincided with more ball-handling responsibilities for Anthony Edwards, who has surpassed his backcourt mate as the primary option on the pick and roll (33.7%).

The ascension of Edwards, coupled with Karl-Anthony Towns initiating offensive sets as well, has put a damper on Russell’s potential assists. The point guard’s decrease from 12.6 potential dimes last year to 10.4 so far this season is offset by 10-12% increases for both Edwards and Towns.

And while a seven-game sample size can be highly variable, tonight’s matchup isn’t exactly a break-out spot for Russell. Building off last season’s regular season success, the Suns are fourth in the NBA with a 106.2 Defensive Rating. Not only have the Suns allowed the second-fewest assists per game (19.7) but also the fifth-lowest field goal percentage to guards (43.9%).

I foresee more struggles for the Timberwolves point guard tonight. I have Russell projected at 22 PRA.

Pick: Under 25.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-115) | Playable Down to Under 24.5 PRA

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