Warriors vs. Knicks Odds, Pick, Prediction: New York Should Stay Hot Against Shorthanded Golden State (December 20)

Warriors vs. Knicks Odds

The Golden State Warriors travel to Madison Square Garden to face the surging New YorkKnicks on Tuesday.

This will be the third-straight game for the Warriors without reigning Finals MVP Steph Curry, who will be out at least two weeks with a left shoulder injury.

Meanwhile, the Knicks have themselves a nice little seven-game win streak, aided by the improved play of R.J. Barrett and Julius Randle.

Can the shorthanded Warriors give the Knicks a run for their money? Let’s break it down.

Golden State Warriors

How the Warriors handle the extended absence of Curry will have a big impact on the rest of their season as he will likely miss around 15 games. Even with Curry in the rotation, the Warriors have struggled with consistency from their bench unit this season.

In the two games without Curry, lineups have featured more minutes from Anthony Lamb, Ty Jerome, and former lottery pick James Wiseman, who was designated to the G-League in November in order to give him more in-game experience.

Lamb has the best differential of the bunch at -7.1, but that’s only in the 22nd percentile for players at his position, and equates to -18 Expected Wins, according to Cleaning the Glass.

In 150 minutes, Wiseman is one of the worst players in the NBA from an impact perspective. His -27.2 differential is in the ZEROth percentile, and that equates to -48 Expected Wins, an expected win total he shares with Jerome.

Jerome has only a marginally better Point Differential of -24.4 in his 212 minutes of play.

Despite a commanding 126-110 win on Sunday, I don’t think it’s a hot take to express doubt about how the Warriors will play moving forward, although a road win in Toronto is a step in the right direction considering Golden State has been horrendous on the road this season (3-14 straight up/4-13 against the spread).

What concerns me is that the Warriors only have one lineup without Curry that has played more than 50 minutes this season without a negative differential. In 59 minutes, the lineup of Poole, Klay Thompson, Donte DiVincenzo, Anthony Lamb and Draymond Green has a +7 differential.

Jordan Poole has played better since his promotion to the starting unit in Curry’s absence, but he still won’t be able to make up for what Curry does on a nightly basis and the attention he draws from defenses.

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New York Knicks

The New York Knicks are a team that have been trending in the opposite direction.

The Knicks have a seven-game win streak that began with a 92-81 victory over the Cavaliers on Dec. 4. Since that game, New York has gone on a tear, dominating most notably on the defensive side of the ball.

Before their win streak, New York was just 24th in Adjusted Defensive Rating (113.9), according to Dunks and Threes, which accounts for strength of schedule. Their -1.4 Adjusted Net Rating was just 22nd in the league.

Since then, the Knicks have catapulted to eighth in Adjusted Defensive Rating (110.8) and their +2.1 Adjusted Net Rating is top 10 for the season.

New York’s success can also be attributed to the improved play of Randle and Barrett. Randle is averaging 26.7 points, 11.4 rebounds and 4 assists since the win streak started — all higher averages than his full season numbers.

The same is true for Barrett, whose 22.3 points, 6.4 rebounds and 44.6% field goal percentage are improvements on his season averages.

Just over half of New York’s wins have come on the road during their streak. They beat the Hornets, the Bulls twice, and most recently the Pacers, all on the road.

Perhaps more encouraging are the home wins. The Knicks have the second-best road record in the league at 10-6 (11-5 against the spread), but are just 7-7 at home (5-7-2 against the spread).

However, their home wins during the streak have come against the Cavaliers, Hawks and Kings — all teams above .500.

Warriors-Knicks Pick

I have the Knicks around -5 favorites before accounting for Curry’s absence. With him out, that number is closer to -8.5.

There’s also a revenge factor as the Warriors blew out the Knicks at Chase Center last month 111-101 but that game was not as close as even the double-digit score would suggest.

I see a lot of value at this current number and like the Knicks down to -7

Pick: Knicks -4 (bet to -7)