The Road to Omaha begins now.
The NCAA Baseball Tournament kicks off with 32 games on Friday. I dove into the docket and came through with 4 best bets and parlays for Friday's slate.
Let's take a look at my college baseball picks and NCAA Regionals predictions for Friday, May 29.
NCAA Baseball Predictions, Picks
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 1 p.m. | |
  | 2 p.m. | |
  | 5 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. | ||
East Carolina vs Tennessee Prediction
Tennessee is a team I see value in to win the Chapel Hill Regional. The Volunteers are both underseeded and undervalued. So, naturally, I’m taking them to win Game 1 over East Carolina.
The Vols ranged in opening odds from -130 to -175 (and, if you were fast enough, you could bet this game with a theoretical hold of -0.9%).
Tennessee enters the NCAA Tournament ranked as highly as 17th, per Diamond Sports Rating, which is a bit more aggressive with recent form.
It finished 12-11 against Quad 1 teams, while East Carolina finished just 3-7-1. Don’t let the logo fool you; this isn’t the same caliber of ECU squad as in recent years.
The Pirates' pitching depth really suffered from early-season injuries. ECU managed to win the American but finished just 17-10 against the league and struggled offensively throughout May.
I’ll take the more highly-rated Volunteers with more options in the starting rotation in the opening game.
Pick: Tennessee ML -180
| | | |
Kansas & USC ML Parlay Pick
- Northeastern vs. Kansas (1 p.m. ET · ESPN+)
- Texas State vs. USC (9 p.m. ET · ESPN+)
Two games that have a low theoretical hold between books, and both favorites sit right around -220 to open.
USC has gone 1-11 against Quad 1 teams, which is concerning for the long-term outlook, but it should have enough talent to fend off Texas State in the opening game.
Kansas, meanwhile, is a seriously underseeded team. The Jayhawks come in at 15th overall despite ranking as high as ninth, per Diamond Sports Rating.
I feel like Northeastern is getting a logo bump here — yes, seriously.
The Huskies lead the country in stolen bases, but their 5.94 xFIP puts a damper on their outlook.
For a few years, Northeastern entered the postseason with one of the premier starting pitcher rotations in the entire country. This year, not so much.
I’ll pair these undervalued teams with at least one reliable phase — Kansas’ offense and USC’s pitching — together.
Pick: Kansas + USC ML Parlay (+111)
| | | |
Liberty vs Boston College Prediction
Using aggregated win probabilities for this postseason (PEAR Ratings, College Baseball Insiders, Margin), Liberty’s fair value should be at -185 for this game, a 10% improvement over the posted odds.
The Flames take on a Boston College team that dropped seven of its last eight games, including two out of three to Clemson, which sat firmly outside the Field of 64.
Liberty, meanwhile, finished the season 10-11 against Quad 1 RPI teams and averages a 33.7 ranking between RPI, DSR and KPI metrics.
The Flames do have a reliable phase of the game — their 5.19 xFIP ranks 20th in the field and second-best among No. 3 seeds — and their starting rotation of Jaxon Lucas, Ben Blair and Bradley Zayac is outstanding.
Liberty is handily the second-best team in the Athens Regional and should contend for the runner-up spot thanks to that rotation.
In my estimation, and in the estimation of several ratings, Liberty is the superior team here.
Pick: Liberty ML -120
| | | |
The Citadel vs Oklahoma Prediction
Another team that opened up with a wide range of odds, Oklahoma begins its tournament journey against The Citadel. The Sooners average 26th between RPI, DSR and KPI ratings systems compared to the Bulldogs’ mark of 50.3.
I’m concerned about The Citadel’s lack of pitching. Its staff’s combined 6.13 xFIP ranks 13th-worst among all tournament teams and fourth-worst among No. 3 seeds. There’s not nearly enough firepower to offset that shortcoming.
However, keep an eye on Andrew Buffkin, who holds a 2.62 ERA in seven starts. He’s a lethal arm that the Bulldogs use wherever possible. But will Buffkin appear in Game 1? Or will The Citadel save him for a win-or-go-home situation?
Oklahoma ranks fourth among No. 2 seeds in terms of aggregate power. It skidded to the final bell on a 3-7 slide in May and 4-10 finish. But those losses came against two Regional hosts and two of the highest-ranked No. 2 seeds.
Are the Sooners a legitimate threat to win it all? Not likely, but I’ll side with them in their opening game against an overmatched 11-10 SoCon team.
Pick: Oklahoma ML -170
