NCAA Baseball Odds, Picks, Predictions: Our 3 Best Bets, Including Oklahoma State vs. Texas
Via Bob Levey/Getty Images. Pictured: Pete Hansen.
- With aces taking the mound on Friday night, our college baseball analyst has found three best bets worth tailing.
- He's eying two moneyline bets and one total.
- Check out Doug Ziefel's picks and analysis below.
The countdown is on. We’re entering the 11th week of the college baseball regular season. That means we’re just four weeks away from the postseason and, eventually, the College World Series.
Perhaps the best day of the week is upon us once again, and since it is Friday, aces will be wild. Tonight we’re going to target some of the best arms in the country. Two of them are set to square off in Austin, one will be facing a powerhouse from another conference, and the last arm is being undervalued at home. So let’s reveal who all of these quality pitchers are and how they’ll impact what sides we’re on.
TCU vs. Florida State (7 p.m. ET)
The Seminoles were once a top ten team in the country, but they have since dropped out of the consensus top 25 as they’ve played the third-hardest schedule in the country. That schedule is a blessing and a curse as they have a ton of quality wins, but their losses are much more impactful. The Noles enter this weekend series against a No. 20 ranked TCU team with a 3-7 record against RPI top 25 teams.
Despite their descent from the national rankings, Florida State still has plenty of talent, and the best example of that will be on the mound tonight. Parker Messick has been darn near untouchable this season. He’ll enter this start with a 2.89 ERA, a .200 BAA, and 102 strikeouts, which leads the nation.
The Noles lineup will have a challenging task of their own on their hands as TCU’s Riley Cornelio will be on the mound for the Horned Frogs. We’ve seen him succeed against the Big 12’s best, but he will enter this start off a rocky outing against Oklahoma State. That outing raised his ERA to 3.81 for the season.
Regardless of which version of Cornelio we see, Florida State should scratch across a run or two. That may be all Messick needs against a TCU lineup that only has one big bat to worry about in Tommy Sacco.
Back Messick and the Noles to take the opener in this big nonconference series.
Pick: Florida State Moneyline (-125)
Oklahoma State vs. Texas (7:30 p.m. ET)
Next, we head to the great state of Texas, where we have a potential pitching matchup of the year on our hands. Oklahoma State’s ace Justin Campbell will be up against Texas ace Pete Hansen.
Let’s start with Campbell. The big right-hander has been absolutely dominant. He’ll enter this start with a 2.89 ERA, a.179 BAA, and has racked up 95 punchouts over 65 innings of work.
After a tremendous freshman season, Hansen has only improved as a sophomore and is on his way to being one of the best arms in program history. Hansen has a 2.70 ERA and .197 BAA for the season and has upped his Strikeout Rate as he’s accumulated 76 in 63 innings.
He also can lay claim to having one of the best pitching performances of the year as he threw a complete-game shutout against TCU. You can watch his 12th and final strikeout below and feel the electricity of the performance.
— Longhorn Network (@LonghornNetwork) April 9, 2022
While the pitching matchup may be as good as it gets, I’m certainly not overlooking the lineups here. Both sides are formidable, but in the end, these two arms will be winning a majority of the battles.
Take the under and enjoy the pitching duel.
Pick: Under 10.5
UC Irvine vs. Long Beach State (9 p.m. ET)
Long Beach State has been a bit of a disappointment as the Dirtbags were a trendy Omaha pick to begin the season, and no one can be blamed for touting them. They opened the season by taking two out of three from the defending champs, and they have one of the best starters in the country.
Then things went downhill fast as their ace and leader Luis Ramirez went on the shelf with a shoulder injury, and the offense struggled to put up runs. However, the optimism has to be back around this team on Friday nights as Ramirez has returned good as new.
He had a rare blow-up against San Diego State in his last outing, but his numbers were so good beforehand that you wouldn’t notice it if you didn’t check. For the season, Ramirez holds a 2.14 ERA with a .197 BAA and has 38 strikeouts in 33 innings.
The Dirtbags’ offense will face the Anteaters’ ace, but they have the edge with Ramirez on the mound. Their offensive numbers are slightly better than UC Irvine’s even despite all their struggles. If they can give Ramirez some early run support, you can close the book on it.
Take the Dirtbags to pull off the upset at home.
Pick: LBSU ML +115