The Alabama Crimson Tide play the Michigan Wolverines in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament from Chicago, Illinois. Tip-off is set for 7:35 p.m. ET on TBS.
Michigan is favored by -9.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -480. Meanwhile, Alabama is the underdog at +10.5 with a moneyline of +360. The total is set at 173.5 points.
Here’s my Alabama vs. Michigan predictions and college basketball picks for March 27, 2026.
Alabama vs Michigan Prediction
My Pick: Michigan -9.5 (Play to -10)
My Alabama vs Michigan best bet is on the Wolverines to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Alabama vs Michigan Odds
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -112 | 173.5 -110o / -110u | +360 |
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -108 | 173.5 -110o / -110u | -480 |
- Alabama vs Michigan spread: Michigan -9.5
- Alabama vs Michigan over/under: 173.5 points
- Alabama vs Michigan moneyline: Alabama +360, Michigan -480
Alabama vs. Michigan Polymarket Odds
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Alabama vs Michigan College Basketball Betting Preview
Alabama Basketball
Alabama has a pair of explosive offensive outings to make it to the second week of the Big Dance. It scored 90 points against Hofstra and Texas Tech, beating both by 20+ points.
Being a team that attempts around 54% of their shots can be a blessing and a curse. The variance game can be a dangerous one. When Alabama hits 19 3s as it did against Texas Tech, it can be anybody. When it's not, it can take a lopsided loss to a better team, like Michigan.
I don't see another path for the Crimson Tide winning this game. Their DNA is shooting 3s, so they have to live and die by the results.
From a personnel perspective, Aden Holloway is still out. It was a non-issue since Latrell Wrightsell scored 24 points and Houston Mallette scored 15 in the Texas Tech game. That pair is getting more shots and has to hit them sans Holloway's 16 ppg and 43% shooting from deep.
Star guard Labaron Philon will need another masterpiece in this one. He scored 29 points with seven assists against Hofstra, but scored just nine points with 12 assists in the Tech game. Due to Alabama blowing out Texas Tech, they could survive without Philon scoring. It'll likely be a different story here.
Alabama struggles on the other end, ranking 60th in defensive efficiency, per KenPom. It holds opponents to a strong 48.5% shooting on 2s (45th) and 33.3% from 3 (141st). The bigger issue is rebounding, as the Crimson Tide sits 287th in defensive rebound rate.
The duo of Amari Allen and Aidan Sherrell will have to hold Michigan off the boards.
Michigan Basketball
Michigan looks like the most impressive No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Wolverines beat Howard by 21, but didn't cover the spread. They took their frustrations out on Saint Louis, beating it by 23 points.
This Michigan team is all about rim-dominance. It shoots 61% from 2-point range (2nd best) and holds opponents to 44% from 2 (4th). That's one of the best splits you'll see in this sport.
The way to beat this Michigan team is to slow them down. Don't let them turn their constant defensive stops into transition chances. But that's not how Alabama is built to play. It ranks fourth in adjusted tempo, and Michigan is 22nd.
Just look at two of Michigan's three losses — to Duke and Purdue. Both teams successfully slowed down the game, and the Wolverines shot it poorly from deep.
They shoot 36% from deep this year, but shot below 30% from deep in those two losses. If the Wolverines shoot well, I can't see anyone beating them — and I view them in the same light as UConn's back-to-back title-winning teams.
Also of note, Michigan looks to slow down opponents' offenses. Teams use over 18 seconds of the shot clock per possession against Michigan's physically imposing defense.
Driving on Michigan is playing right into its hands.
A large part of that is the presence of the 7-3 center, Aday Mara. He blocks close to three shots per game, but he affects way more than that. Plus, Dusty May also has a pair of stud defenders in Yaxel Lendeborg and Morez Johnson surrounding Mara.
Alabama vs Michigan Pick, Betting Analysis
I'm laying the points here. When Michigan is right, it's hitting 3s and that leads to the Wolverines beating teams by 20+, like it did against Saint Louis.
Plus, Alabama is the type of team Michigan can throttle. It forces them into taking contested 3s, leading to run out chances. Alabama won't be able to stop this high-powered Michigan squad in transition.
I think the Wolverines win this one by double-digits.
My Pick: Michigan -9.5 (Play to -10)
