It’s the time of year when sportsbooks begin to offer specialty March Madness markets.
One futures market that tells the story of the season thus far is the “Winning Conference” offering, which allows bettors to select the national champion’s conference affiliation.
The Big 12 has the shortest odds at +160, followed by the Big Ten (+170), the ACC (+750), the SEC (+800), and the Big East (+900).
It’s true that the Big 12 and Big Ten each have a handful of national title threats, but their conference races are priced differently.
Five Big Ten teams have blazed out to hot starts in conference play, sitting somewhere between 7-2 and 9-0 in conference play. As a result, there are four teams with odds of 6-to-1 or shorter to win the regular-season crown.
Just like the Big Ten, the Big 12 has a team sitting at 9-0 (Arizona) halfway through the conference slate. But unlike Nebraska (+200), Arizona is prohibitively priced at -190.
The undefeated Wildcats have feasted on the bottom half of the conference thus far, winning by an average margin of 19 points per game. But things are about to get rocky for the nation’s No. 1 team. Arizona draws seven ranked conference foes in the next 35 days. That opens the door for the competition to leapfrog them in the conference pecking order.
So which team presents the most value at their current number?
College Basketball Futures, Picks
BYU To Win Big 12 (+1500)
The Cougars are 5-1 in conference play, boast an electric offense (12th nationally in KenPom’s offensive efficiency), and can hitch their wagon to the consensus number two overall pick in this summer’s NBA Draft.
AJ Dybantsa is averaging 24.6 points per game in Big 12 play, and he’s been unstoppable at the Marriott Center. The 6-foot-9 wing is a matchup nightmare on any court, but at home, he’s enjoyed a 10 percentage point bump in his shooting from the field compared to his work on the road.
The nation’s second-leading scorer is unguardable when his perimeter shots are falling because once he puts it on the deck, he’s NBA All-Star-grade in the finishing department.
I bring up Dybantsa’s wizardy in Provo because BYU plays four of its six most challenging games the rest of the way on its home floor.
That starts on Tuesday when Arizona plays its first true road game against a ranked opponent in more than two months. A win for the Cougars would essentially put them in a tie for first in the conference (the Wildcats have played one more game than BYU).
One of the reasons why I doubt Arizona’s ability to go wire-to-wire in the Big 12 is its reliance on freshmen.
Koa Peat and Brayden Burries are the Wildcats’ top two scoring options, a rarity in college basketball. Even elite teams led by true freshmen, like 2012 Kentucky and 2015 Duke, had veterans to help in the scoring department.
While Peat and Burries have been red-hot in Big 12 play, they’ve both had their share of duds on the season. Peat and Burries have been held to single digits on 43% shooting or worse on eight occasions.
I’m also a big believer in crunch-time experience, particularly for younger teams.
Arizona hasn’t been in a one-possession game in the final minute since mid-November. Dating back to December 22nd, Wildcat opponents have an average KenPom ranking of 103. Over the next five weeks, the Cats’ average opponent strength will rise to 29.
Quality competition and tense late-game situations will lead to a few losses and open this race up down the stretch, which is why I’m grabbing a BYU at this generous price.
Pick: BYU To Win Big 12 (+1500, DraftKings)
