The NCAA Tournament bubble is always one of the biggest storylines to monitor during the week of high-major conference tournament action. This year's bubble might be the weakest in recent memory, but that doesn't mean there aren't some intriguing teams and big-name programs on the bubble.
For anyone interested in making NCAA Tournament bubble predictions, Kalshi allows users to place real money on the outcome in most states. Additionally, we have a Kalshi promo code to help get you started.
NCAA Tournament Bubble Predictions, Odds
(It's also worth noting that the fine print is really important for this market. If a team that you bet "Yes" on makes a First Four game in Dayton, that isn't enough to resolve the market result to "Yes." The odds only resolve to "Yes" if the team wins the First Four game, or qualifies for the NCAA Tournament without playing in a First Four game.)
With that disclaimer out of the way, here are my favorite teams to bet on in this market.
Santa Clara: YES (60 cents)
The Broncos haven't made the NCAA Tournament since making two consecutive appearances with Steve Nash running the show back in 1995 and 1996.
However, Santa Clara has been quietly on the rise under Herb Sendek for years, most recently producing NBA first-round picks Jalen Williams and Brandin Podziemski.
This season, the Broncos have another potential NBA talent on the roster in the form of Allen Graves. Graves is a unique stretch big man who shoots 42.5% from 3-point land and will be a very tough player to guard for most teams in the NCAA Tournament.
Graves is part of a deep Santa Clara rotation where every player takes and can make 3s at a decent rate. The Broncos' offense is incredibly hard to guard, and this team has a similar resume profile to many NCAA Tournament teams of the past.
Interestingly, Bart Torvik's similar resumes feature highlights eight tournament teams with an average seed of 9.9, compared to just two teams that missed the Big Dance.
Bracketologists currently have Santa Clara in, and the reality is that the Broncos will be right on the cut line for a bye if they lose to Saint Mary's in the WCC Tournament.
However, this bet is essentially hedging that Santa Clara will either get a bye regardless of what happens against Saint Mary's or that the Broncos will beat a team in the First Four, and I think the combined odds of any of those situations happening are more likely than not, giving this pick value.
SMU: NO (57 cents)
Using the same tool that we used to judge Santa Clara, the Mustangs should have significantly lower odds than a near 50-50 chance. According to Bart Torvik, only three of the 10 most-similar resumes to SMU's made the NCAA Tournament.
When you peel back the layers even more, the case gets even weaker. Most bracketologists have the Mustangs teetering on the brink of the bubble, with a near consensus that if SMU is in, it will be in Dayton.
Ending up in Dayton isn't the biggest worry here, though. The biggest problem for the Mustangs is how they've been playing recently. SMU has lost four in a row after a 19-8 start to the season. The losses are to California (a low-end bubble team), Stanford (a high-end bubble team), Miami (FL) and Florida State (not even close to the NCAA Tournament picture).
SMU will face Syracuse in its first game of the ACC Tournament, and the Mustangs lost to the Orange less than a month ago. If SMU wins that game, it will likely have enough breathing room to be in the NCAA Tournament, but it will likely be in Dayton.
If the Mustangs lose again to Syracuse, that would be the final straw on their NCAA Tournament resume.
Given the recent stretch of poor play, it's hard for me to even feel confident that SMU will beat Syracuse. Even if they do, the Mustangs probably won't beat Louisville (their next opponent in the ACC Tournament after Syracuse).
And once again, given the poor play at the end of the season, there's not much of a reason to believe that SMU will win a First Four game either.
Long story short, the Mustangs would be lucky to make it to Dayton at this rate, and don't look like a team that would thrive in a win-and-in environment either.
Auburn: NO (67 cents)
Despite what Bruce Pearl might say every afternoon on CBS, this team will not have what it takes to make the NCAA Tournament. No amount of talent or strength of schedule rankings can save a team from only being one game above .500 overall in an entire season, and that's what the Tigers are right now.
Auburn will play Mississippi State in the first round of the SEC Tournament, and will take on Tennessee if it wins. If the Tigers lose to Mississippi State (which they already did less than a month ago), they will end the season 16-16.
That's not an NCAA Tournament team.
If Auburn advances, it's pretty likely Tennessee will win that game in the next round.
This Tigers team is probably most comparable to Michigan in the 2022-23 season, when the Wolverines were flirting with a .500 record all season, ended 17-15 after a first-round loss to Rutgers in the Big Ten Tournament and played in the NIT.
Michigan had top-end talent (Hunter Dickinson, Kobe Bufkin, Jett Howard, Tarris Reed Jr.), but the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee doesn't tend to care about talent if that talent doesn't win enough games.
Bart Torvik put nine teams other than Michigan in the most similar resumes to Auburn, and guess what? All 10 teams missed the NCAA Tournament.
This team certainly could get lucky and face Tennessee without Nate Ament (which is a very different team than a fully healthy Tennessee), but in a best-case scenario, betting on Auburn to make the Round of 64 is assuming it can win three of four games (including a First Four game in Dayton).
The Tigers are 2-8 in their last 10 games, which makes it very hard to believe they can muster up a 3-1 stretch at the most important juncture of the season.
