We continue our same-game parlay series into the first day of the Sweet 16, where I'll be targeting the South Region’s Big Ten battle, as fourth-seeded Nebraska prepares to take on a scorching Iowa bunch.
Ben McCollum’s Hawkeyes are coming off one of their biggest victories in program history, taking down Todd Golden’s reigning national champion Florida Gators in a shocking second-round upset on Sunday night.
After Louisville's Ryan Conwell came up short by just one point in my first same-game parlay of the NCAA Tournament, the SGPs have been on fire, cashing the last three at +202, +400 and +172.
With that said, here's my college basketball parlay and Nebraska vs. Iowa picks for Thursday, March 26.
College Basketball Parlay for Nebraska vs Iowa
- Nebraska ML
- Pryce Sandfort Over 2.5 3PM
Parlay Odds: +150 (DraftKings)
Remember, parlays are long shots for a reason, so please bet responsibly.
Nebraska vs Iowa Parlay Picks
Moneyline Pick: Nebraska ML
For the first leg of Thursday’s Sweet 16 same-game parlay, I'll be taking a shot on the Cornhuskers on the moneyline at -130 to reign supreme over their conference foe in what looks to be a clear letdown spot for the Hawkeyes.
This marks the third meeting of the season between these conference rivals, with each team having prevailed on its home floor.
Fortunately, there will be no home-court advantage in the rubber match, as both sides get ready to square off at the Toyota Center in Houston on Thursday night.
While most were rather surprised by Fred Hoiberg’s bunch winning its first two NCAA Tournament games in program history, I was not one of them, having touched upon the Cornhuskers as my sleeper team to find success in my South Region preview.
McCollum was a great offseason hire for Iowa and has done a tremendous job in his first season at the helm. Iowa’s strengths lie in its high-efficiency offense, ranking inside the top 10 in effective field-goal percentage and third nationally in overall field-goal percentage at 52.9%.
Iowa loves to fire from beyond the arc behind strong efforts from its senior leader and superstar Bennett Stirtz.
The Hawkeyes play at a slow, methodical pace and often run very deliberate sets in the half-court, looking for the most efficient shot opportunities.
While the Hawkeyes can also score inside the lane, they're rather reliant on their 3-point shooting prowess, and that's most certainly the path to victory in this matchup.
That said, I have some concerns about McCollum’s bunch finding as much success on the offensive end of the floor matched up against a defense of Nebraska’s caliber.
Hoiberg’s Cornhuskers boast one of the top defensive units in all of college basketball, ranking sixth nationally in defensive efficiency rating, per KenPom.
Nebraska’s defense thrives on the perimeter, allowing its opponents to convert on less than 30% of their field-goal attempts from beyond the arc. That could be problematic for Iowa’s offense, especially considering Stirtz went 0-for-9 from deep in the Hawkeyes’ win over Florida.
While Stirtz hasn't been in the best of form heading into this Sweet 16 matchup, Nebraska forward and Iowa transfer Pryce Sandfort was lighting it up from 3-point land in the Cornhuskers’ first two games of the NCAA Tournament.
He knocked down seven triples against Troy and converted on three of his six attempts from downtown in Nebraska’s win over Vanderbilt.
Nebraska also boasts an elite frontcourt at both ends of the floor, and I just see the Cornhuskers having far more scoring avenues at their disposal ahead of Thursday’s Sweet 16 contest.
For an elite Nebraska perimeter defense, I worry about Stirtz finding his rhythm, particularly following a lackluster shooting effort against Florida.
Nebraska Player Prop: Pryce Sandfort Over 2.5 3-Pointers Made
While I have previously extracted max value in this SGP segment by pairing my preferred side with a player prop from the opposing team, I'm inclined to stick with a Cornhusker player prop ahead of Thursday night’s contest.
Sandfort has been sensational from the 3-point line of late, converting on 10 of his 18 attempts thus far in the NCAA Tournament.
Despite impressive defensive showings in Iowa’s first two victories over the likes of Clemson and Florida, I still feel comfortable backing Sandfort to have another big night from beyond the arc.
I'll be backing Sandfort to convert on three triples (-170) as the back end of Thursday’s Sweet 16 SGP, with the two-legger posting a +150 overall price.
